yeah, even if you think its +ev to buy right now, but are pretty damn sure its going to 25, or whatever you project, why not wait til then? i don't think any new money is coming in until it has flattened out for a couple days. even though i thought it was ballsy of people to bet on it not going below 50 immediately after it was shown to be volatile as hell, i am absolutely shocked that it dropped this violently. i think any attempt to predict its value is basically throwing darts at this point. that being said, i'm still not selling what i got. i love so many things about bitcoin, and would hate to get shut out if/when it realizes its potential. i feel that trying to time exactly the best time to buy/sell is so impossible, that it doesn't make sense to try. i now know that i was extremely lucky the first couple of times i bought during a dip, although it was much cheaper to do so then, and therefore also cheaper for people to buy in after me.

It went to $3 after the MtGox hack and related security issues. So you can take that as the absolute bottom supported by Silkroad customers. It will not drop that far this time. If it goes anywhere near that value then I am buying.

Ho Ho Ho, was to 55 earlier, so very close.

Doing my best to catch the knife for you guys. Bought some at 94 yesterday 65 a bit ago, and put an order in for 55 if we see that again. I think after it stops dropping like a bomb all the people in the mtgox queue will push it right back up again, but it may keep dropping for awhile. Now's as good as any to buy I figure.

For people wondering about lead times, expect 1-3 business days for wires. I requested international wires to both bitstamp and mtgox around 4pm PST last Thursday. Friday morning my bank called me to confirm the transactions and sent them out first thing. I then received confirmation of my wire from bitstamp Sunday evening around 11pm PST and from Mtgox around 7pm PST Monday. For verification times, bitstamp was about 12 hours, Mtgox took 7 days. Bitstamp also has had lower prices the past couple days and has lower fees as far as I can tell. Not as much trading volume, but overall I had a much better experience with bitstamp than mtgox.

yes, really. apparently i was wrong. i have been wrong before, and i'll be wrong again. live, learn, etc. i thought it would settle at no lower than 80. i'm still interested to see just how wrong i was, and not just because i'm still holding on to my btc. it went up fast, like a couple months fast. its crashing down at light speed, comparitively. i suppose thats how it happens when people fear losing everything. there were a lot more pure gamblers involved than i had estimated, by a large margin.

I expected an increase from the $100 it was at the past few days by the end of this week, considering the 20,000 new users every day at MtGox would take about a week to make their bank wires, etc and get in on the action. I still think with it getting this low its a great buy, but so hard to predict this thing. Having had only a couple BTC before today and not wanting to buy above $100, I will snap up as much as I can during this crash.

didn't stocks eventually bounce back? i seem to remember fox news celebrating a new all-time high the other day.(yes, i know it didn't account for inflation, but they seemed really excited)

Even if it crashes completely, lets say worst case scenario it drops to $5-10. It would surely go along the same route as last years $30-$2 crash and slowly rebuild again. I mean you'll have ASIC machines hitting the market and lots of heavily invested miners, you'll also have all these people who bought at a high price and just don't want to get out at a large loss.

What caused the initial massive price jump into the $200s, media attention and so many peopl getting in?

you should be careful assuming that all those people in the que are there to buy. somebody pointed out earlier that it could just as easily be people that just liquidated their stash, and now need to get verified to cash out.

The people who had BTC to sell are much more likely to already be verified.

Comparing this to 1929 is ridiculous. That crash took 4 years of build up, 4 years to crash and then 20 years before a new high. Extrapolate this to bitcoins and it took 15 days to build up, 15 days to crash and will take 75 days to recover.

Re: Mtgox queue yes it's certainly possible it's just people cashing in, but it seems incredibly reckless to trade with an unverified account and just look at all the media hype and google trends over the past month and it's not too hard to come to the conclusion that these are new people signing up.

It's at 30 days lows right now and has had a ton of media exposure since then and has gained widespread awareness. ****, my mother in law knew about them. They are clearly worth more than 30 days ago IMO.

It hit $50.01 ... How good are you running lol

just saying its a bad example. its massive scale, while making it more important, also makes it harder for the stock exhcnage to bounce back in times of turmoil. something as small as bitcoin is at this point just needs one break to blow up. btw, it seems like i should also pull any investments from the stock exchange. it looks like a bad investment if it takes all that carnage just to almost maintain it. what if we suddenly find ourselves in time of peace when economic disaster hits? nevermind, we will always be at war. god, i hope this boston marathon disaster doesn't lead to an even bigger one. why does every nutjob think the only way to make a statement is to kill people that didn't do anything to you?

holy crap, it hit 50.01, hung around 50 for a decent amount of time, then suddenly shot up to 60. its definitely not over, but there is hope now for the pro-btc bettors.

there was a big wall at 50.01 that allowed him to hold. there was also a huge sell off right before that took out the low 50s and about half of the wall in a few mins.

well, i happen to think bitcoins aren't worthless. in their current state, they are not all that attractive to the general population. i understand that. there are, however, people working on making it more user-friendly for the masses. because we disagree on the potential for bitcoin, we will naturally disagree on our evaluation of the situation. if you see it as literally having zero value, it would clearly be a bubble. there would be no other explanation. i actually thought it was probably a bubble at 108, so i cashed out some. even though i was into btc, it didn't make sense that it had gone up so fast. then 200 hit like a week later. honestly, i thought there had to be some sort of new info on development that i wasn't privvy to. i didn't think that many people would just drop a bunch of cash on something they weren't interested in. that was where i was completely wrong. apparently, the vast majority of those who had bought them up were just trying to make some quick cash. i know it may be difficult for you to understand why i saw it the way i did, as you believe bitcoins to be completely worthless. thats cool.

Imo the most important difference is that stock market is based on something real, so it will bounce back when the economical prospects are seen to be improving.

I have hard time to see anything real behind bitcoin. Surely if it has a value, it can be used as a convenient transfer/payment method. That is a real value (like Moneygram's stock). But not sure if that is enough, as there is a feedback loop, if price drops that will jeopardize the value side because it means less users and thus less transfer/payment value.

interesting point. i think this is why its so tough to pinpoint the value of bitcoin. it can transfer value better than current options (imo), as long as people agree to accept it as having value. but, how do you get more people to accept it? i suppose that is what it all comes down to. the whole feedback loop arrangement also seems like it could amplify any swings. i don't agree that less value has to mean less users, but it certainly seems like the two should be related. i have sort of assumed that more users means more value, but perhaps that doesn't have to be true either.

I guess the relationship doesn't need to be linear at all. But there has to be some kind of relationship, as you said. If there is no user, obviously there is no value. Btw. it is intriguing how the first "value", even if a bit theoretical in nature, was created. In that sense imo this is just a scam even if not maybe intended. But if there is enough users it is certainly convenient to store some bitcoins if you regularly need them. Now imo, this means that more people using them creates some upward pressure other things equally.

I think you are right about amplified swings. And swings are not good in terms of transfer/payment value.

Yesterdays volume on a 30 day chart.

My dwolla deposit from bank account last week cleared this morning at 8 AM. Mt. Gox. cleared it 10-15 min later. Today should be the day deposits start coming in since the crash.

People that tried to get in when it was moving from 100 to 200 are not going to buy now that their account is verified after it crashed from 200 to 50. They thought it would still be going up. Right now we will find the balance of miners that are selling to recover their costs and people that believe we already reached the bottom of the dip. None of these are new verified accounts.

Apparently you do not understand. When a ton of value was lost last week during the crash, a ton of people wanted to buy (speculate on) btc given it had become much cheaper. It takes 3-4 business days to deposit money which means if they deposited on thursday via wire/dwolla/whatever, that money would just be clearing today. Has literally nothing to do with new accounts being verified (though lol if you truly think there are suddenly no more accounts being created/verified.)

Silkroad has grown a lot more since then, so I think you have a support level quite a bit higher than that right now as a bare minimum.

I'm seeing a lot of decent sized buys today.

[edit]

2000+ coin buy at 78!