I respect that you've actually done some research and still come to a different conclusion. That's totally fine. Time will tell and I re-evaluate my views and adjust my portfolio in real-time. Hopefully if my long-term view towards ethereum ends up being wrong, I will be able to realize it before the market does. So far, I have been on the right side and hope that my efforts will keep me on the right side in the future.

There's also a possibility that *any* crypto doesn't take off to the extent we think and becomes more niche, in which case it will be nice to have a nice stack of dollars/stablecoins you can move back to the real world to buy things like houses, cars, vacations, stocks, send your kids to college, etc. I do that. I hope you guys do too.

"THE MARKET IS WRONG AND I AM RIGHT!!"

The only way to keep score in the market is money made. Say TSLA collapses to $50. Who wins?

1) The bears who made no money (even lost some shorting)
2) The person who rode it up and took profit along the way
3) The person who bought and sold full position at 100x gain

Anyone can agree (1) is the loser

Also, when we're this many years in and up 9000x (for ETH), it's not really a debate anymore. Bears lost. They'll never get the position they could have had, or make as much shorting as the person who took that early long position.

i agree, but you get institutional investment in both crypto and tesla

you don't get institutional investments buying lotto tickets (unless of course they had some inside knowledge or the prize so bloated it was those rare events where each ticket is +ev but that's neither here nor there)

that's my point, if he said tesla and linked to one of the many dumbasses buying tesla on margin then selling options on their holdings to buy more and calling it free money cause it can't fall then he'd have a valid "scoreboard isn't a valid metric" but instead he went to lotto tickets and ensured instead of getting a reasonable discussion it was just aids

It's been over a decade man results matter, and we're talking about 1000s of x. This is not some cute investment up 5x. I have been betting on short term price action for a long period of time, and I have consistently been right.

If you operate on different timeframes, and are correct on those timeframes, congratulations, but you don't get anything for that. Seems like a waste to me. Not sure why this is so hard to understand. If bitcoin roundtrips from 0 to 300k to 0 again within 5 years, who won? The perm bear who was "right" on a 10-year timeframe, or the person who rode it up and took massive profit out along the way?

No idea bout those %s, but agree on the correction.

Thanks for typing it out anyways, I lost a big post due to that as well. I will definitely be checking out Uncommon Core, thanks for the recommendation.

It won't solve your problem of what % BTC to hold compared to other projects, but DPI might be something you want to look into as well as this will simplify the process. Defi pulse index is essentially an index fund of defi projects. I am currently not in a position to spend the time necessary to pick any projects on my own, so this seems like a good way to put some into a bunch of the most likely winners.

Some of the current funds I see are currently allocating more to ETH than BTC in the short term. It's a few % more, not much. BTC and ETH split up to make up 30-40% of the funds.

Then they have in usually top 100 coins, usually 1-3% the farther down you go. A lot include BNB/DOT/LTC/BCH. Yes, some do include DOGE and at a higher % holding than some might think. 5-10% allocation

Cool, I will research it. Thanks for the suggestion!

How is it not fair when the only gauge is individual gains?

Madoff operated for over 50 years paying out high returns and only failed because of the great recession.
I am not saying that crypto and Madoff are the same thing. I am saying 10 years means nothing.

How do I cross borders with my wealth if btc goes to 0?

In fact if it goes to 0 it would be a truly sad day for me as I will be stuck in my socialist shthole, give me an alternative and I will sell 50% of my cryptos for it.

There's other countries beside the US in the world, I understand you guys education is very bad in mentionning those fact. Me me me, what does it do?? Enjoy this lack of global thinking, in a few decade, the US won't matter much, if it fights crypto it will be rome in less than 100 years.

Bitcon is approaching my 5-year high prediction of 58k to 62k. After the fools rush in and the scam is more clearly seen, expect a drop to 9k area to the eventual $400 area as its only use is for illegal activities and govts jump in to limit its use as it destroys the earth and all life via global warming. Here is another example of it being used for bribes for pardons by the GOP... https://www.yahoo.com/news/bombshell...003016975.html

Didn’t think I’d have to do the ignore thing. But that take was so bad I find reading those posts a true waste of time.

Low fruit and not even good fruit. Try again.

So your 5-year high prediction is lower than the current 5-year high?

What ATH?

My 5 yr high prediction is going forward is 58k to 62k. I predict it won't surpass its ATH ever.
Here are more reasons why bitcon is a scam.... https://www.currentaffairs.org/2021/...-a-giant-fraud

Nobody thinks it does anything, it is all immensely negative sum. Correct my math and make me look bad:

MONEY IN, 20+ billion per year

(waste heat, coinbase profits, CZ, justin sun, etc)

VALUE OUT, ??? billion per year

> Speculators can only gain value when someone else loses, net must be 0
> This leaves the real world utility value of the projects crypto enables

For the system to not be net negative sum, it must pay out in value 20+ billion per year to the tax evaders, payment system users (lol), non speculating app users (lol), etc

You've already stated you don't know much about BTC, so your numbers are nothing more than bad guesses. Quoting a single article written by someone who also doesn't understand Cryptos does nothing other than to confirm the fact that you don't know much.

There's nothing wrong with having a limited understanding. I'm well aware of my ignorance in this space, as I strive to learn more and more. However, there is a problem with making bold predictions when you lack the know how to back them up.

You're not alone here, of course. The clown directly above this post continues to make statements of absolute certainty despite a consistent history of failed attempts to read the stars. Others have even sold their entire BTC holding back when it was priced around $10 a coin, yet criticise people who partly trade out of BTC despite the price having now 5,000x'd!

Wise people tend to assign percentages- consciously or otherwise- to the likelihood of events having. The more experienced someone is, the more accurate their percentages probably are, but a sound investor is never going to say that something is definitely going to happen or not happen. I imagine people like to make guesses and claim for them to be a certainty because it will look impressive on the times that they get lucky- and if they end up being wrong they can just create a new 2+2 account. I suppose some credit must go to case3 for resisting the opportunity to create a new account on so many occasions.

Gotta love it. Please leave thread when it passes ATH. I'll leave thread if it doesn't pass ATH by Aug 1.

BTC's price passed the lower bound of his 5-year high just 3 hours after he posted, so I think there's quite a good chance his upper bound is passed in the following 4 years, 364 days and 21 hours.

nareana for most stick up the ass posting style?

My posts have numbers, concepts and trades behind them. Sometimes I make good points and model relationships well, sometimes I miss things. It isn't 'wisdom' to lecture that the investing world does not offer 100% certainties, get a grip

Break my arguments, and explain how you know they are wrong if you want to snipe at me, less dckless florid 'concerns'

I would go 80/15/5 for Bitcoin/Ethereum/Other as a portfolio based on nothing other than my intuition.

I think one of the great things Ethereum has going for them is that Tether, USDC, and WBTC are all dependent on the platform. Ethereum acts less like a currency currently and more like a gatekeeper. That being said, I have very little Ethereum (less than 1%), because I’m more bullish on Bitcoin right now. A lot of people seem to be transferring large parts of their BTC over to ETH and I think Bitcoin will boom shortly after.

I made this post last night before Bitcoin started going up, but 2+2 refreshed my page and I lost everything. I didn’t feel like typing it out again at the time.

Case3 does have a point about it being negative sum, but the negative sum is only because of the demand. You could argue the cost of not having the double spend problem is worth the energy being expended. There is also the argument that it could push for cleaner energy in the future, but I’m not convinced this later argument is a good one.

By March 2020, 85% of this thread saw that:

> Covid lockdowns would destroy all the worlds economies
> The SP would of course rally almost 100% because of this
> TSLA would pump up to 1t in mcap and go from Elon personally signing off any cash use of over 1m to buying 1.5b of BTC
> All of this would foster an enormous retail investing frenzy, DOGE a lock to hit a 50b mcap

If you had called for a severe crash by March, followed by a very bullish idea that it could return to 10k and then fizzle out, you are clearly hopeless and just don't get it

When you make absurd predictions that nobody else in the space was making (eg bitcoin would never go over $10k again) you are allowed to gloat for the rest of your days if you were proven correct.

But you have to accept that you will also be ridiculed for the clown you are when you are inevitably and invariably proven wrong time after time.

That's how it works.

Ok, I will leave if it goes over 62k, but I will be back when it falls back under 62k. Warren Buffett has his annual meeting May 1, at 9:30 AM PDT. He has called bitcon "rat poison squared". Maybe he will call it "rat poison cubed" now that it is higher. He might mention it as a bad investment tomorrow, and it will likely send bitcon down 1-2%.

Here is what $800,000 in dollars and gold looks like...


Here is what $800,000 dollars in bitcon looks like:


One is real, the other imaginary. Bitcon's main use is to fund illegal activities: drugs, arms, money laundering, illegal gambling, tax evasion, etc. But it has now morphed into a Ponzi scheme where speculators hope to sell at higher prices to fools later on. In addition, it has no barrier to entry. Any programmer can make a new bitcon. (just look at Dogecoin) And it destroys the environment by using insane amounts of energy. Governments may ban it soon to help stop the global warming and death it is causing.

So short bitcoin to hell and get warren buffett rich, nostradamus