Bitcoins - digital currency - Page 1428 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Looks pretty damn correlated to me. Lost more than the stock market since this started but very similar inflection points and relative magnitudes.

Bitcoin is a speculative risk asset/ponzi that gets sold off along with other speculative risk assets. It's not in any way viewed by the market as a store of value which has been claimed for a long time. It's behaving just like the bitcoin bears predicted and exactly how opposite to how the bitcoin bulls predicted.

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03-10-2020 , 08:39 PM

#35677

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Nonsense, plenty said this was a safe haven asset/would soar with fed printing or in a crisis.

But even your assertion above is false:

Doesn't change the facts bro. Whether people believe it's a store of value or not, end of the day it is. It's just too small right now and more importantly most people don't understand bitcoin at all! Which is most likely the biggest problem imo.

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03-10-2020 , 08:44 PM

#35678

Didace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by White_Gatsby

Whether people believe it's a store of value or not, end of the day it is.

I would argue that it is only a store of value if people believe it is.

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03-10-2020 , 09:02 PM

#35679

TheMVP

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,758

tfw you see 3 posters in a row on ignore

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03-10-2020 , 09:36 PM

#35680

jfound

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Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,389

LMAO that gif is gold.

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03-10-2020 , 10:12 PM

#35681

ToothSayer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by White_Gatsby

I understand that if I put my money in to this "uncorrelated" "safe haven" "store of value" "real money" "soar when the fed prints money" asset a few weeks ago to escape the carnage in the stock market, I'd be down about 24% - double the amount the stock market went down.

Along with not being reliable in about 50 other ways, it's not a reliable store of value, not a reliable uncorrelated asset, not a reliable safe haven, not a reliable fed hedge.

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03-11-2020 , 01:26 AM

#35682

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

I know a bunch people who are bullish on bitcoin and none of them think it is a safe haven from volatility in the stock market.

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03-11-2020 , 01:54 AM

#35683

case3

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 774

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

There's zero statistical correlation between halving and ripping. You've got a handful of data points in a super noisy graph. And made even worse by the fact that the history of bitcoin until it ran into permanent fundamental limit at $10Kish is to be up thousand bags (it's been ripping most of its history).

I'm also in the 10k permanent limit camp, 10.5 from a few weeks ago is likely going to be a 'forever' price that you won't get back. It failed at 14k, which was less extended over the basis than 20k. How high it could go used to be the question, now the defining level is how low. Might be a few years before it makes it back to 1800 and tests the enormous block of dormant early coins.

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03-11-2020 , 02:23 AM

#35684

TheMVP

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,758

sick chart lol

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03-11-2020 , 02:25 AM

#35685

pokerCEO20

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 14

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I'm a bitcoiner myself, but i agree that there is no data to support the theory that the halving will increase the price. There is just no sample size to draw any conclusions, it's only hope that drives our thoughts towards that.

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03-11-2020 , 02:49 AM

#35686

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by despacito

I know a bunch people who are bullish on bitcoin and none of them think it is a safe haven from volatility in the stock market.

I will acknowledge there are people who push this view (eg. Tim Draper).

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I predicted that bitcoin would sell off hard during crises as its a speculative/ponzi asset rather than a store of value as bitcoin fans claim.

But I think this is a giant straw man for the most part.

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03-11-2020 , 03:03 AM

#35687

TheMVP

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,758

Imagine thinking an asset smaller than Netflix is ready to be a safe haven asset.

It would suck if it was already a safe haven as it would have gone nowhere the past 10 years.

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03-11-2020 , 02:24 PM

#35688

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

I would argue that it is only a store of value if people believe it is.

Really?

Doesn't need belief at all!

People are free to believe what they want, won't change facts though, will it!

People believe the earth is flat, we know it's round! Facts are facts!

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03-11-2020 , 02:25 PM

#35689

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerCEO20

How is there NO data. We have halved 2 times already and both times we pushed higher after the halvening.

Is that not data?

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03-11-2020 , 02:29 PM

#35690

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I agree with you, but it doesn't mean any of those are not true!

You are basically saying that because it's not doing a good job, it automatically means it must not be any of the things you mention.

It can be all those but just not doing a very good job. My explanation stands, it's too young and hasn't got enough people behind it, not enough $$$.

What about in 10 years time and bitcoin at $10 trillion? You think people will flock to btc or negative interest bonds??

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03-11-2020 , 02:52 PM

#35691

Didace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by White_Gatsby

Really?

Doesn't need belief at all!

Why else would it have value? It can have all the cool attributes in the world, but if no one uses or wants it, it has no value.

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03-11-2020 , 03:21 PM

#35692

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Why else would it have value? It can have all the cool attributes in the world, but if no one uses or wants it, it has no value.

That's a different story. Nobody is forcing anybody to use it. Some good things go unnoticed. Ultimately btc can't thrive if nobody is adopting it. I thought that was a given and didn't need pointing out.

You talked about belief though, which is what I addressed.

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03-11-2020 , 03:34 PM

#35693

Didace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by White_Gatsby

You talked about belief though, which is what I addressed.

If people don't believe it has value, why would they use or keep it?

You can say the same thing about fiat, but there's one important difference. The US government demands that people report income and pay taxes in USD. At the very least that sets up a floor on the amount of use. To be sure, governments can certainly screw up their currency, but until that happens (and reaches a point where people lose faith) fiat will continue to have value.

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03-11-2020 , 05:05 PM

#35694

CoolTimer

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,029

Good money needs certain properties. BTC crushes on most of these properties. No, money is not an illusion. You can bring that take back to HS.

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03-11-2020 , 05:56 PM

#35695

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

I don't know where you are going with this!

I am merely pointing out that believing something doesn't mean it's true or not, belief has nothing to do with it! Which was my initial point, people can believe it has no value and don't use it, fine.

What I have a problem with is when you said "I would argue that it is only a store of value if people believe it is"

Like I said, they can believe what they want, doesn't mean it's true.

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03-11-2020 , 06:42 PM

#35696

Didace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolTimer

Good money needs certain properties.

The over riding property money needs is that people consider it valuable. Without that, the rest is just noise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by White_Gatsby

Perhaps we are talking past each other. I agree that it doesn't matter what you or I believe individually. But there needs to be a minimum number* of people that believe Bitcoin is valuable for it to be valuable and successful in the long term.

*I do not know, and make no guesses to what that minimum is.

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03-11-2020 , 07:38 PM

#35697

White_Gatsby

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 1,232

That's true obviously bitcoin needs people to adopt it's tech.

If 2morrow we all agreed that gold has 0 value, it would become worthless, you need some common ground, some rules.

Right now bitcoin is seen as a risky asset. Nothing wrong with that, it's only 11 years old. Majority are not in it for tech but for gains. It's delusional to think bitcoin will act as a safe haven right now.

Doesn't mean that bitcoin isn't a safe haven asset or SOv, it just means that we are way too early!

Last edited by White_Gatsby; 03-11-2020 at 07:56 PM.

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03-12-2020 , 03:55 AM

#35698

CoolTimer

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,029

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

The over riding property money needs is that people consider it valuable. Without that, the rest is just noise.

You should try to go from first level thinker to first principle thinker. What are the properties that make money valuable? Try to answer that. This is not an easy task, and it's hard work to truly understand money. It can take years for people even if they try (sorta) hard. Some never get there.

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03-12-2020 , 07:06 AM

#35699

ToothSayer

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Wow. The "store of value" that was supposed to be safety/moon in a crisis and with central banks printing just lost 20% in 20 minutes. It collapsed like a ponzi rather than a currency or store of value. What sane regular person or institution would ever store non-speculative value in this? And since you can't use it as a currency (it chokes), what future can it have?