Tom you were always arguing that the biggest threat to bitcoin was alternate crypto. It appears we have a good example of this now: Litecoin
I always thought litecoin would be crushed by botnets if it ever got any traction, because the mining algorithm it uses makes it so that GPUs don't make CPUs obsolete. But it is still here after quite a while, and it's value has been going up along with bitcoin as you can see here:
https://vircurex.com/welcome/index?a...=btc&locale=en
The main problem seems to be that you can still make a custom hardware for it (at a cost of millions of dollars), and this would allow whoever did this first to take over the network. Someone I respect had this to say about it in chat when I asked him:
"litecoin is, in the grand scheme of things, better than bitcoin, but less significantly as market adoption happens. In terms of real world factors though, bitcoin has more liquidity, meaning the small techinical benefits of litecoin wouldn't make it cheaper to use until it's near as prevelant as bitcoin. It's a good investment, but probably not as good as bitcoin"
So it seems that the network effect from being first is the important factor for bitcoin. Litecoin will grow, but bitcoin will grow way faster.
There is also some speculation that Ripple is a bitcoin killer, but Ripple's security system appears to suck.
Also, I was wrong to state that BFL hadn't posted pics. I do not have any order with them or any ASIC manufacturer, so I didn't pay too much attention.