Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Bitcoins - digital currency Bitcoins - digital currency

06-08-2018 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah, it's all bull****.

Aggo's post was good and is not widely understood. The problem with scaling is a lot broader than just bandwidth and memory. Bulls should really understand what aggo is saying
What Aggo doesn't appear to consider is that not every node needs to validate every transaction.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Pay the man.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Seems like TS should pay up or eat a ban here.
Another genius. Words, what do they mean?
Quote:
He's been proven wrong about everything in BFI...he said BTC would plummet to zero without an ETF.
Quote:
I never said any such thing
Quote:
Without an ETF this thing goes to zero....will thus eventually become worthless once a quality alternative anoncoin is doing well.
plummet plʌmɪt verb 1. fall or drop straight down at high speed.

The implication of "plummet" is that if an ETF didn't happen, it would drop very quickly.

I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the opposite. In the short and medium term it was a strong buy because the illegal economy formed a base, but eventually if it didn't attract mainstream investment vehicles (like an ETF) it would go to zero because a competitor would pop up that didn't have bitcoin's flaws. That is the direct opposite of plummet.

Moreover, the context was that this is something I'd been proven wrong on; this was also false, since I a) never made the statement claimed about it "plummeting" and in fact said the opposite and b) I was in fact was bullish over the medium term.

Since you want me banned, I'll gladly bet you on something you claimed I lied about - that I was 100m from the truck attack in Nice. Loser eats a ban. Want to back up your personal attacks, or are you a coward?

Tell me when you want to stop with your stupid bull**** zero content personal attacks that are clogging up this thread.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 05:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Two posts total and didn't put forward any arguments or calls beyond wanting to see the odds on an arb. I didn't look at bitcoin seriously until 2015 when I started posting to figure out what the hell it was about.

As for channel factories, they're nonviable as a scaling solution because:

- They can be attacked, flooding the chain by forcing everything on chain. How do you attack them? You join a payment network and go offline. Anything that can't stand up to a simple, cheap attack is worthless. You still need the chain capacity if you don't want bitcoin slowing to a crawl and freezing up for weeks with backlog of transactions any time anyone decides to attack you.

- An attack isn't even necessary - an internet outage somewhere (there have been a few major ones every year) can have the same effect. Reliability is going to be very low.

- Cost is unreliable. Multiple things will often force you on chain, at tremendous cost as bitcoin scales. You don't know if you'll pay 1c or $50 for your $30 transaction, and have no control over it.

- They can be spoofed

- The DDOS problem isn't solved and doesn't appear easily solved (this is separate from the issue above)

- Mainstream users aren't going to accept flakey solutions that require constant work adding and funding different channels. There's a chicken or egg network problem here, a bit like FB or MySpace, but a lot worse.

- It's years away from a viable, tested implementation

There are other issues with lightning which I don't understand well so I won't comment, but the above are enough to make it not a viable solution.
There have been some theoretical developments since the paper I linked.
The issue with someone being unreachable (intentionally or unintentionally) has been mostly solved. It will be possible to just exclude them within the Channel Factory.
Cascading settlements of all the inner anchoring transactions are not necessary, as all of them can be done using one transaction.

But those are just mitigating some of the problems. I agree with you in general, that it is an inferior solution to regular Lightning funding, except for price.

And on another note, unlike most people in this thread that don't agree with your longer term predictions, I think you are one of the posters that provide the most value with your posts.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 06:11 AM
Toothsayer value is drown in 70% of trash he posts making his post too noisy to be read.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 07:08 AM
The whole thread is like that anyway. As with the rest of the thread, I skip the nonsense and repeat parts.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 07:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
The whole thread is like that anyway. As with the rest of the thread, I skip the nonsense and repeat parts.
Ts is 50% why the thread is like that, i cannot why for elon musk to do his first TESLA ICO
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 08:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddymitchel
Ts is 50% why the thread is like that
So what? It's still what brings about much of the meaningful discussion. He is also by far the most knowledgeable bear. If I want to learn something new, or have my own hypotheses tested, I would much rather argue with someone of the opposing opinion. At least if they know enough to hold a meaningful discussion, but that goes for bulls as well.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddymitchel
Toothsayer value is drown in 70% of trash he posts making his post too noisy to be read.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddymitchel
Ts is 50% why the thread is like that, i cannot why for elon musk to do his first TESLA ICO
If you can't stand the poster, or find his posts valueless, or truly believe he's a troll, then ****ing put him on ignore. You guys all keep paying attention to him and not the topic or the content and it's ****ing childish. You're obsessed with him. Really, it's not that hard. Scroll past and ignore, or literally use the ignore function. It blows my mind how stupid the collective of TS gotcha guys look, continually hunting down every possible instance of when he's even a fraction of wrong. HE'S A LIAR ZOMG! Relax. Go live your life. He's going to be wrong and it's obvious he's not like most people. Get over it. It's not a big deal. In fact, it says more about you guys that you seem to care so much than it does about TS.

Far be it for me to peg posters on an internet forum, but I said it before and I'll say it again. Some of you, TS included, seem to light up the DSM-V like a pinball machine.

Bolded is a prime example. So many people can't stand his personality to the point that they don't care about discussing the topic anymore. They just want so badly for him to be wrong and think they'll end up dunking on him. Like he's gonna have some ****ing meltdown. Obviously that is not out of the realm of possibility, but I think it wouldn't be too crazy to think that he'll be wrong, about whatever, and just shrug his shoulders.

At the very least, take it from Mat Cauthon. He seems to be the most reserved poster ITT and his content is respected by everyone, including TS. And he, in his ever so reserved manner, just went to bat for him. Yet posters have veins popping out of their foreheads because god forbid an abrasive personality could be right...
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 09:18 AM
For real thi, Musk ICO would be such a brilliant cash grab I’m amazed he hasn’t rolled one out yet.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biesterfield
we're all gonna get rich on fedcoin
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 01:25 PM
TimSawyer would have you believe that only Group B exists. However, Groups A, C, and D clearly are involved as well.

Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 04:17 PM
What, if anything, does this mean for Bitcoin going forward?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Financial Times article
The Chainalysis data quantifies this distinct shift in the make-up of bitcoin owners from longer-term investors — those who held the asset for more than a year — to short-term investors who have traded more recently, by analysing how regularly coins have changed hands.

Last November — before December's pricing peak — the amount of bitcoin held for investment was roughly three times that held by traders.

However, by April 2018, the data show the amount held by investors — about 6m bitcoin — was much closer to the amount held by short-term speculators, with 5.1m bitcoin.
Link to full article on CNBC
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
There are some really creepy people on the Internet, and you're one of them, it seems. Most of your last year of posts are posts about me. I love how you omit the context in the quote - where I explain what was said.

Here's the last time I corrected your stupid bull****/lies. I seem to live in your head.

What I'll do this time is link the full discussion, so the next time you pop up like a stalker repeating the same nonsense, I'll just link to this.

That's exactly the theory I put forward!!!!! See the bolded below. It's there in my quotes in black and white, multiple times!

2015:

In black and white. I put forward exactly theory and time frame I said I did.

No, you're just functionally ******ed. What I put forward - an excellent trading theory that was far ahead of most of the bulls - is really ****ing simple:

- In the short and medium term, bitcoin was a strong buy because:
a) $250 is a floor until a better coin comes along, because that's the size of the illegal economy
b) it's near certain to have another bubble run over the last high ($1000)

making it a strong buy overall.

In the long term however, bitcoin is very very flawed and can't scale and needs mainstream investment listing or it will fail. At the time that was an ETF, but CME/CBOE futures and GBTC (stock) achieved almost the same thing. In fact, much of bitcoin's run over about $2000 was CME rumors and then validation, which I called "very bullish".

Here's the history of my post on Bitcoin trading:

2015 at $250, pleading with people not to short at $250, saying it's a medium term strong bull. This backs up entirely what I say and contradicts what you say.


In the context of it being a strong buy medium term and having another bubble before it collapses with or without an ETF:


i.e. It is doomed to fail long term without a mainstream ponzi, but will still bubble before then whatever happens.

More strong buy recommendations, months apart at $250:




I think the size of the bubble is the only thing I've ever gotten wrong. But this was a full two years before the fact. As stinkypete says, you reevaluate at the time.

May 2017 at around $3K




As bitcoin rose. First ever short call was at $6000 (can't find the post), but I reversed instantly at $6500 on the CME news, given that CME is similar in effect to an ETF:



November at $6500


First short call at $17,500, three days from the peak, on December 15th:


I have crushed bitcoin trading analysis, put my balls out there with big calls and been right every time on my longs and shorts. The only I got wrong was, in 2015, not thinking Bitcoin would be a 100 bagger without an ETF (I said it could go 5x without mainstream investment money/ETF - which eventually came first with rumors and then confirmation of CME).

My bitcoin calls have been excellent for years. There's no one who reads this analysis with the benefit of hindsight who wouldn't say I've done very well, and provided the best and most rational trading advice in this thread both long and short (and it's not close).

You're just a sad little **** who can't read/comprehend and is trying to throw shade.

Can we let this topic go now? Who gives a **** about me? I'm just some guy with an opinion on bitcoin. Your constant attempts to throw shade are backfiring spectacularly, getting me to list all of my excellent trade recommendations and analysis so people can read for themselves. So thank you, more people will listen to me now. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

Not going to respond to any more of this bull****, I'm just gonna link this post the next time you decide to lie again.

FWIW, I have no opinion on the short and medium term at this point. I think I recommended closing that $17,500 short at about $6500 but if not I would now.
i really love to watch you squirm and write paragraphs upon paragraphs attempting to explain the simple sentence: "without an ETF, this thing goes to zero."

this post is even better because it has you digging your hole further by trying to redefine ETF to mean futures offered by CME/CBOE and the largely irrelevant GBTC.

thanks for the links, i found something else here that is really interesting:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSoother
Yep, the third act of the ponzi will be starting soon. There won't be anything like the enormous runups of previous years (bitcoin has reached about the order of magnitude of its non-mainstream-adoption ceiling even with an exchange), but it's still likely a good return before it all collapses (a 5 bagger or so). Bitcoin is a strong buy here, although it's not going to be a 100 bagger.
but just a few posts earlier, you say this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Another genius. Words, what do they mean?




plummet plʌmɪt verb 1. fall or drop straight down at high speed.

The implication of "plummet" is that if an ETF didn't happen, it would drop very quickly.

I never said any such thing. In fact, I said the opposite. In the short and medium term it was a strong buy because the illegal economy formed a base, but eventually if it didn't attract mainstream investment vehicles (like an ETF) it would go to zero because a competitor would pop up that didn't have bitcoin's flaws. That is the direct opposite of plummet.

Moreover, the context was that this is something I'd been proven wrong on; this was also false, since I a) never made the statement claimed about it "plummeting" and in fact said the opposite and b) I was in fact was bullish over the medium term.
collapse
[kuh-laps]

verb (used without object), col·lapsed, col·laps·ing.
1. to fall or cave in; crumble suddenly:
The roof collapsed and buried the crowd.
2. to be made so that sections or parts can be folded up, as for convenient storage:
This bridge table collapses.
3. to break down; come to nothing; fail:
Despite all their efforts the peace talks collapsed.

words. what do they mean?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 08:03 PM
For investing purposes alone a lot of mainstream people looking to get in can buy the BTC tracker right on the exchange
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
What, if anything, does this mean for Bitcoin going forward?

Link to full article on CNBC
This is an interesting consideration. For me, an increase in speculators rather than HODLers and users is problematic as it maintains the volatility that is a barrier to many adopting the currency. This is why we need to increase the numbers of users (merchants/consumers) to balance out the speculators. Adoption is everything.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 09:55 PM
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 10:39 PM
Transactional fraud is $0 for bitcoin?

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

The lack of reversibility for fraudulent transactions is like the #1 thing that would keep me from ever transacting with bitcoin vs. a credit card.

I mean, I'm open to being wrong about bitcoin in general, but the bull arguments in this thread are so bad that it's hard to take them seriously.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 10:45 PM
Transactional fraud means double spent money, akin to counterfeiting

I think this thread would be improved if everyone's posts didn't spend so many words laughing at opinions that are different to their own. It doesn't really add anything to the discussion.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbeaks
Transactional fraud means double spent money, akin to counterfeiting

I think this thread would be improved if everyone's posts didn't spend so many words laughing at opinions that are different to their own. It doesn't really add anything to the discussion.
Ok, where on that table would you include the cost of fraudulent transactions that can't be reversed? Like, you buy a TV online, send bitcoin, and receive an empty box. You have no recourse. Where does that cost show up?

(And if you make the claim that there's no aggregate cost, because the purchaser's loss is offset by the seller's gain, then where is the deadweight loss that comes from consumers not being willing to transact with a currency that's non-recourse?)
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-08-2018 , 11:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
FWIW, I have no opinion on the short and medium term at this point. I think I recommended closing that $17,500 short at about $6500 but if not I would now.


Why close now?

What do you see in this volume pattern?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-09-2018 , 12:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spidercrab
Ok, where on that table would you include the cost of fraudulent transactions that can't be reversed? Like, you buy a TV online, send bitcoin, and receive an empty box. You have no recourse. Where does that cost show up?

(And if you make the claim that there's no aggregate cost, because the purchaser's loss is offset by the seller's gain, then where is the deadweight loss that comes from consumers not being willing to transact with a currency that's non-recourse?)
It's the same as cash. If you buy something with cash directly, person to person, then it's up to you as the buyer to ensure you receive what you are paying for. If you go through a third party (like ebay) then you have recourse with that third party usually.

It would also be the case if you made a direct transfer via your bank for a purchase made online. Sure credit cards offer extra protection in this regard but you pay a hefty premium for this. Also, the dark markets have proved that this problem is not hard to overcome.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-09-2018 , 12:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by case3

What do you see in this volume pattern?
I see bears running out of steam.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-09-2018 , 12:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spidercrab
Ok, where on that table would you include the cost of fraudulent transactions that can't be reversed? Like, you buy a TV online, send bitcoin, and receive an empty box. You have no recourse. Where does that cost show up?

(And if you make the claim that there's no aggregate cost, because the purchaser's loss is offset by the seller's gain, then where is the deadweight loss that comes from consumers not being willing to transact with a currency that's non-recourse?)
Most transactions are pretty safe and a credit card protection cost you for no purpose.
On the other hand the risk for the vendor is pretty high.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
06-09-2018 , 12:31 AM
If anything the risk to the vendor is much lower. They can wait for however many confirmations they need for their comfort before shipping any product. There are no chargebacks with bitcoin, and chargebacks are something that eats into pretty much every vendor's profit margin.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote

      
m