So you don't believe people who are investing in gold are familiar with what happened during the Carter administration, the 1920s/30s/70s, or how upcoming politics will play a role in all of this? Or that they haven't factored that into their decision to be bullish on gold? Interesting.

Please elaborate on said picnic then compared to now, if you could please.

The guys that bought gold in the Carter years got buttraped. HARD! They finally broke even about last year My uncle (aged 90) claims Carter was our greatest president ever because he was getting 20% on his CDs. Home mortages were as high as 15% meaning no one could afford to buy a home. Unemployment was rampant along with inflation. The economy was in total shambles.

All those dates were during the gold standard with the exception of the late 70s. So the fundamentals that have been and are currently driving gold weren't even possible then. And the late 70s was very different from today. Volcker had to get rates up to 20% in 1980. Something like that can't happen this decade. Zero interest rate policy (and low rates) must stay in effect to prevent credit from contracting.

I wasn't refereing to those dates concerning gold but as times that had economic turmoil far more concerning than current economic turmoil. We have survived the birth of a nation, a civil war, a worlwide depression, 2 world wars and Jimmy Carter. My point is I think we'll survive this too.

People need to stop assuming a high value of gold means some kind of decline of civilization. Not gonna happen.

How about I change it for you.

If you would have set a bar of gold at a trading desk in 1970 it would have outperformed most all investors over the same time period.

DUCY? We could set up a time frame where money managers outperformed inanimate objects, would that make you feel better. Well, go ahead and do that, there are plenty of time frames where investors outperformed inanimate objects.

If little baby Russian girls were beating up UFC fighters over any time frame I would be concerned that they were not preforming very well or had trouble applying their talents.

Lmao. What is your reasoning? Gold has been running like this for a bit over 9 years, do you know why gold has had a great run?


Well now that the sage has blessed us with his grand projection, do you see this happening in two years or twenty.

I agree.


It's like me telling the meteorologist the storm has passed when the meteorologist is looking at the fu**ing satellite image. You are wrong.

Something like this will probably happen, yes.

What are you even arguing, that gold won't rise to infinity... no sh**.

Like I said anybody can cherry pick any timeframe to try and make a point. About half of gold current 10 year run has come in the last 2 years and looks very bubbleish in my eyes. You can't ever predict when a bubble will pop though you just have to remain vigilant and pounce when the opportunity presents itself. Frontrunning a percieved bubble pop is a fools game.

But I think I stated my points clearly enough for even internet morons to understand without the need to break down posts line for line to try and argue.

I said what I felt needed to be said and will now take my leave.

Cherry pick...lol, as if I intend to prove inanimate objects have always outperformed investors. Yes you caught me, a bucket of sugar (or a bar of gold) may outperform an average fund manager this decade, and a bucket of sugar might underperform. Does this change my statements or points, of course not senor beisbol.

Ahh, cyclical theory, the perma-bulls saving grace. The idea that one day in the future everything will be ok, we just have to be patient. The simplicity involved in your "analysis" is nothing short of shameful.

So you are being vigilant regarding the gold bubble for a short position. So you don't know when the bubble will pop, but you are clairvoyant enough to predict the ultimate downfall during what would look like a correction.

Gold looks bubbleish in your eyes, when I asked why gold had risen, I actually expected an answer. What is the trigger for gold's demise (I expect an answer)?

Hint hint, you have no clue.

Frontrunning a perceived bubble, perceived being the key. It's called a trend sir. I have been on top of this for years and have other plays now but precious metals are still one of them. I'll see you at $2,000/oz.

The macro issues do not matter to senor beisbol, he is apparently impervious to the market's will. He cares not that gold was money until 1971, remember what happened to gold in the 1920's and 1930's...lmao.

If he would check the date on his calendar, I think he would find a 2010 at the top left, not 1978. The average great ape hugs to his cyclical theory like a stuffed animal, beisbol is no different.

Shh...I was hoping to hear his case and get the best out of him first.

Oh, I guess that actually was the best. lol. That analysis and those arguments were so convincing, well researched, and fundamentally sound that I really can't think of what else even needs to be said tbh.

"What is the trigger for gold's demise?"



I will make a guess and say when banks start paying more than 2.5% for CDs again.

There is part of it. Of course we know there would be many negative consequences of raising rates too late, clearly the Fed is prepared to drop the ball. We also can expect the increase to weigh heavily on our ability to finance our sandbox.

Since when are the Republicans fiscally responsible? Lol.

Again, this idea of "inanimate objects" outperforming traders is comical. lol @ digitizing an inanimate object.

why are you hoping for inflation? Do you believe that the hit in real values of your properties will be outweighed by the fact that you can now pay loans back with less valuable money?

just curious

You are not familiar with the dynamic of Cults.

Gold is a Cult. Zero Hedge is a Cult.

Gold Cultists do not make "rational decisions"...
They operate under a STRONG "confirmation bias"...
They simply block out everything non-Bullish Gold...
Like 9/11 Truthers block out all debunkers...
Like Religious Cults block out nearly everything.

http://www.google.ca/webhp?hl=en&tab...2395aceb474101

Plus there is billion $$$ industry...
That feeds and builds and exploits the Gold Cult...
Including "well-respected" financial or political pundits...
And opportunistic politicians like Ron Paul...
That plug into the Gold/Truther/Conspiracy/UFO Cults.

Everyone should buy a decent book on Propaganda...
The world is becoming increasingly Orwellian every day.

The Republican party in undergoing a real Purge...
> 50% of Americans support the Tea Party movement.

There was an Open Question for a while:

(1) Would the Republicans co-opt the Tea Party.

or

(2) Would the Tea Party purge the Republicans.

Well, it's a little of both... but MORE #2.

And in this American Revolution Redux...
The Democratic Party is irrelevant...
Their strategy is to simply lie their way back to DC...
And reduced to *** running fake Tea Party candidates ***...
Like America is some kind of Banana Republic from Hell.

The real reason confidence will be restored...
Is that Special Prosecutors will be hired Jan 2011...
And scores of very well known people...
Will be fighting criminal charges for the next 5 years.

Saying it's a cult doesn't make it so. A year ago I knew nothing really about either side of the argument so I had no dog in the fight. I read into both sides and decided which arguments made more sense. It wasn't the side that was blindly cheer-leading that there was nothing to worry about.

Surely gold is old enough to at least be a religion.

People in BFI like to make it seem as though everyone bullish on gold is some broke, tinfoil hat wearing gold bug who is predicting world apocalypse. I know a lot of high stake poker players though who feel they have done their homework and are very bullish on gold.. some who have put 1-2m+ in it. As well as some very successful businessmen who are also very bearish on the US economy and don't like assets in dollar denominated debt.

I mean, everyone I know in my life who I'd consider intelligent feels that way. Doesn't mean they're right but at the very least they aren't all busto, tin foil, conspiracy theorists who are part of a cult. Clearly I know a lot more people who feel the opposite way thinking it's all nonsense, but those are generally people like my mom, random relatives, and random people on FB posting their "go obama!" updates... oh and then of course people in BFI.

"I mean, everyone I know in my life who I'd consider intelligent feels that way. Doesn't mean they're right but at the very least they aren't all busto, tin foil, conspiracy theorists who are part of a cult. Clearly I know a lot more people who feel the opposite way thinking it's all nonsense, but those are generally people like my mom, random relatives, and random people on FB posting their "go obama!" updates"




Exactly, a lot more people do think it's nonsense. If you get most of the country believing that a return to the gold standard will improve their lives then it will happen. But most people aren't thinking of things like that, so it won't happen. Even if we assume they are just plain dumber than the gold bulls their collective production power is still far greater since there are so many more of them, and so they will still have a greater influence over monetary policy.

Citing poker players as an educated subset is laughable. If anything, I'd cite High Stakes poker donks as a great group of people who don't understand their own limitations and spew at life.

See the Raptor threads about investing in property for a prominent example of someone who got a lot of great advice and ignored all of it and just spewed monies.

The price of gold going up isn't dependent on returning to the gold standard and the masses have been known to be lined up in the wrong direction all the time and be one step behind so that's not saying much.

Not all high stakes players are the same. Some are degens who love to gamble and just have certain skills that allows them to excel - then there are others who are successful as a result of excelling at bankroll management, being level headed, life/time management skills, and approaching the game very methodically. The players I was referring to were in the latter category.

It makes far more sense to assume that someone who was intelligent and competent enough to figure out how to amass millions in their 20s would have certain skills that carry over to figuring out how to allocate their money. At least more so than random people who haven't been smart enough to acquire any wealth to begin with and just sit around posting things on forums like "it's going to recover because it always does".

I also wasn't just referring to poker players, I mentioned successful businessmen as well. Main point though being that everyone I know who has money and is intelligent is in a certain camp, and then people like my mom or random people you knew from HS on FB are in the other. Even in this very thread there's people that seem to think investing in gold to go up is betting on a mad max scenario.

So after calling out an element and a blog as obvious cults... ol' RedMan gets immediately into the biggest cults in America, Republicans and Democrats. Which he believes in like a burning Buddhist monk in protest believes in the Way.

Man you post some dumb sh**. No wonder you never respond to anyone.

Gold is a synthetic inflation play in non-Mad Max scenarios.