The real question is whether pricing is sustainable. The commodities boom will end at some point. Is corn really 100% more valuable than last year. I find that hard to believe.

As I said in my first post...short term its probably a good buy but I haven't looked at any of these company's financials. I don't expect the boom in ag commodities to end as long as the cost of oil stays where it is. It may level off or even fall a bit which has already happened to some commodities.

Is corn more valuable this year than last...no...but you'll certainly pay more for it.

I think value by definition is what people are willing to pay for it.

CHINA is going to need more corn every year for the next five years .......at least!!

Now throw in the need for corn ehtanol and you have a major corn shortage.

If you own Iowa farmland, be very thankful.

everyone time i look at POT, i have to do a double check. it just plows through all the bad news in the market. that having been said once POT and that industry (and commodities in general) do start showing prolonged weakness im def shorting it. ive been eyeing it for months but it just keeps going up!

What is it with you & the damn IOWA farmland? Calgon take me away!!!!

Jim rodgers is buying aggricultural commodities of late. That s good enough for me.

jim rogers also has a "newfound fascination with squirrels"...

you plan on keeping nuts in your pockets too

Barron

after today im thinking we might be close to a lot of agr commodities getting that correction. stuff like POT, MOO were v bloated but now Monsanto also.

POT did get a sick contract from china
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/0...markets19.html

but still the price to earnings ratio is absurd. 60 to 1 for POT.

we are getting closer to earnings. and afterwards theres a decent chance of a v stiff correction unless they blew away estimates.

shorted POT today @ 197.5


http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pot

ive been watching POT for a while, months really, waiting for it to
show weakness.

closed @ 193. support in 191-194 range.
is currently trending down within descending triangle (if you go back
to apr 17) or could be read as a 'C' corrective wave.
it has a good ways down to 50 MA which is around 170.

until v recently has been totally out of technical orbit and this is
the first time since mid march it is being tested.

fed (while we never really know) supposed to leave rates as is or go .
25 and say thats it for a while. from my basic understanding of the
situation, strengthening the dollar.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pot

am thinking of substantially adding to my pos if it drops to
190. to me it will look like it has left the brief consolidation zone
of the past wk.

guys if this breaks through 190 this sure looks like easy money.
look at the 10-day to 1 mo charts.

I sort of hope you are correct and sort of don't I bought May 190 puts this morning on POT when it was trading just over $200 but then purchased half the shares I wanted at $195 and the other half at $193 so I am averaged in at $194. My most profitable plan is for POT to rise above $200 in the next day or two, sell May $200 covered calls and hope it trades between $185 and $190 on option expiration day. Pretty sure I need to see the bump before the FED announcement on Wednesday to have the best chance of success.

Can you arrange that scenario for me?

Jimbo

holy moly thats complicated!
at least for me.

if it doesnt cooperate in the morning im dropping it and looking for a reentry bc it bounces around pretty big.
but for now things look pretty good from a TA standpt if yre short. i just hope it doesnt decide to test my stops and go straight through the 190-191 zone.

not that im relying on it too much, but premarket action has been pretty consistent w POT's normal hrs of trading over the last 15 days. every time it drops 2+ pts premarket it drops for the day. if not it goes up. hopefully the dollar strengthens tomorrow too.

hey not why sell yr pos in the morn and jump in short if we drop below support? youre only losing a few pts and saving yrself the big downside if youre long. its no guarantee that it breaks 191 but if it does theres not much to catch it.

I am nearly neutral at this point, just a little bit net long due to the premium on my puts so the pre market trading drop (like you wanted) will not kill me. Your timing looks very good so far, trading around the $188 level right now.

POT got a downgrade to outperform which ruins my little run up then drop off scenario, at least for today. Nice analysis on your part and for me I could have either just waited to buy the stock or simply held the puts and been really happy.

Jimbo

doubled my pos now i think avg around 194ish. jimbo although its pre its now a good amount below support

I'm watching it closely, my scenario is flexible as long as it doesn't drop off a cliff and will find a new range (even though it's range can be pretty darn wide) my plan to sell covered calls will still work. Just wanted to lock in a hefty profit due to it's volatility. Should have just doe this last week instead of waiting till yesterday but I wanted to monitor it a bit longer.

Jimbo

I'm actually keeping a close eye on POT as a possible shortterm trade on the dips........no options.

Being involved in farming as I am, know firsthand how strong this stock is.

I do think we could fall back as far as 175 on the dips though.........

Sold my POT puts at double their initial cost, now just need a small recovery in the equity.

Jimbo
EDITED: Hope you covered your shorts and made a nice profit agencia1

Darn this stock is making my head spin today. SOld my covered calls just in time, am ready to buy them back now they gained 16% in value in just a couple of minutes. I won't have any more downside protection but my new effective basis will be low enough in the stock I can live with that.

Jimbo

JIMBO---I look forward to hasing around POT with you in the coming weeks...........let's stay on top of this puppy.

Would love to see POT drop to 175.....talk about a bargain.

decent chance it will. in every major correction POT has touched or overshot the 50day MA which now is around 170.

we broke through the 10day MA yesterday and the 20day MA today.

if we break the 50day MA prob i would guess the 50% fib line around 160.

im not saying we get there but theres the possibility of some more room to go down from 175.

sorry for no graph, but i just started using stockcharts, im still figuring out how to post graphs. dont know how yet.
im pretty useless w computers or software.
but if the MA's and fibs are set up over 3, 6, 12 mo periods its pretty easy to see.

Hope you are wrong, I just bought 10 May 180 calls on POT at $11.30, I expect a lot of todays shorts to cover some of their positions by the end of the day.

Jimbo

Out at $12.10 per, 1:37 PM, glad it's over. Even if it heads higher I am a happy camper.

Jimbo

nice. glad u made it work.