To be fair, he doesn't actually drool. The rest is on point.

Everyone ready?
Predictions ?


U.S. dollar up or down
Treasuries yield (20 years +) up or down
Nasdaq
S&P 500
Gold
??

IMHO the dollar with be the main driver of everything week .
No idea if up or down tho lol .

the race to the bottom has begun... QE will begin soon.

it has begun... IN MARCH OF 2024!

it has nothing to do with tariffs.

the Swiss are in fact, only .25 basis away from ZERO already.

Sensient Technology Corporation, ticker: SXT

No it's not a sexting company I really don't know much about it myself but bought 100 shares this morning as a flyer. It has been chopping sideways for the past 12 months. Couldn't really find much in the way of analysts following it. But it has been in business since 1973 and both the weekly and monthly long term charts show nice uptrends.

So why do I care? I did a search to find listed companies that specialize in natural food dyes. And that is what these guys do. There are a couple overseas companies and independants too. Only other US companies were Archer Daniels Midland and McComick but for them it is a miniscule side hustle.

If this MAHA stuff takes hold and they do away with all artifical dyes and colors in food these guys could be positioned to explode. Anyway it is a small affordable position that is basically self hate insurance. If these guys do reap huge benfits from this I would hate myself if I didn't at least have a piece

I just hope it is at least market perform. I looked into options too and while they have them there is no market at all.

It's an interesting idea. I took two minutes looking at their site, and they say they're the leader in synthetic dies. So they may be the opposite of what you want. But I don't know. They have a bunch of natural dyes, too. Maybe MAHA would be a wash for them. Not sure if the info on their sales mix is findable without talking to IR. I probably won't get around to it because I hate doing this sort of micro research in an industry I know nothing about.

Yeah, I did next to no research. Like I said this is mostly an impulsive flyer. It's in a long term uptrend, pays a 2% dividend and is about the only natural food dye producer in the US. It's already up $2 from where I bought it this morning but then again anything you bought this morning would be up. If nothing positive happens with it for a couple of months I will likely bail but I wanna be there for a while just in case.

A little more research reveals this:


This Stock Could Win as RFK Jr. Moves to Ban Synthetic Dyes
Apr 24, 2025, 16:10 GMT-52 min read


SXT
+1.24%
Andrew Bary

Sensient Technologies could be a winner from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign to phase out synthetic food dyes in favor of natural alternatives.

The Food and Drug Administration, a part of HHS, said Tuesday it will revoke the authorization of all synthetic food colorings within the coming weeks, while authorizing four food dyes derived from natural sources. That plays to Sensient's strength.

The maker of flavors, colors, and specialty ingredients is one of the largest producers of natural colors. They make up about 20% of its total revenue, which totaled about $1.6 billion in 2024. The overall color portfolio accounts for more than 40% of revenue.

Sensient is due to report its first-quarter earnings Friday. The stock rose 1.2% to $80.14 on Thursday after gaining 5% Tuesday.

When it reported its fourth-quarter results earlier this year, the company told investors to expect high single-digit to double-digit growth in currency-adjusted earnings per share this year. It forecast a range of earnings per share with a midpoint of $3.10 for 2025, saying revenue growth will be in the mid single digits.

Investors will be interested in whether the company changes those forecasts or comments on the outlook for the economy and the natural-color business when it discloses its results.

The company has a relatively high price/earnings ratio of 25 reflecting what Wall Street views as a solid market position enhanced by its natural-color exposure. The larger International Flavors and Fragrances trades for about 18 times projected 2025 earnings. International Flavors is valued at around $18 billion versus $3 billion for Sensient.

"While the earnings profile at Sensient has been relatively stagnant over the past 10 years, we believe that a secular growth story (underpinned by growth in natural colors), self-improvement, and balance sheet optionality sum to an attractive investment profile on a go-forward basis," wrote Baird analyst Ghansham Panjabi in a recent research note.

He rates the stock at Outperform with a target of $85 for the price. Few Wall Street analysts cover the company.

In an investor presentation, Sensient highlighted the opportunity from natural colors, noting that the vast majority of foods and beverages launched in 2024 used natural colors.

The company did note that Red No. 3, a synthetic color, makes up about 0.5% of its revenue. That dye, which has a cherry red color, is due to be phased out, according to an HHS news release earlier this week. Common alternatives include colors that use beets and red iron oxide, Sensient said.

Write to Andrew Bary at [email protected]

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Also they report earnings tomorrow. How I don't get slaughtered early

SXT? I'm OUT! Sorta anyway. Good timing on my entry for sure Exit who th hell knows? I sold 90 shares keeping a token 10 shares Which are free do to the huge move. I got out +14% (+$11 per share up from purchase). I figured when I got in if I could make 10-15% in the next month or 2 it would be great. Getting that in a day? The trader in me had to cash in do to the too much too fast premise in my head. This stock will be 150 by the end of the year probably But I have my "free" remnant position.

My goal in the market these days is free stuff. Free stock or free puts. I like converting whatever I have into something free. I do a lot of covered call stuff with the goal of eventually selling enough month to month premium to end up with free positions. Typically get called away at some point but sometimes you can just keep writing against those positions forever.

We call that the crypto moonshot freeroll and I love that you are doing it with stocks

Certainly wasn't the plan going in but it happened so fast I said why not. I for sure wasn't married to the position and wasn't all that confident on it. Mostly a blind flyer on a premise that may or may not be legitimate. So today I have $250 and 10 shares of a $90 stock I didn't have yesterday.

Selling covered calls is a risk reduction strategy; and will give you lower returns over time. Everyone has their favorite selling calls anecdote about how it worked out perfectly in name XYZ but is an inferior strategy with tons of trading costs, b-o spread, taxes, slippage.

Well? I like reducing risks Remember I am an old man! I do them as trades hoping to get called away. If I don't get called away? Even better I get to sell more next time. The real risk is a sharp downturn. I tend to be picky about the stocks I do them on. I want someting that is volatile with active options that trade with a high vega and I would like to see it highly rated by the analyst community and/or have strong technicals. I only do 'em in tax free account and I am pretty good at getting my price and avoiding slippage.

I have 3 of these positions on right now. One since last Sept and my current basis is about 1/3 stock price so that one is safe. The other 2 were initiated near the current lows. Both of those have only been written against twice but at really juicy premiums. They expire May 16 and at current prices one would get called away and one wouldn't.

Not saying this is for everyone but it suits me and my goals and is fun. Gives something to do since I am not actively day trading anymore and I understand the options markets inimately.

So? Did the mega bears make any money? Maybe but doubtful. Being a bear has to suck. I would have to imagine bears were predicting, hoping, praying for more. More which hasn't come. Yet anyway. As a perma bull this was great. My timing on my hedges was near perfect due to the luck of expiration dates.

Rolled out of the last of my May puts today which were all hedged to premiums and into June and July. I fully expect my June and July to suck. But like I said in an earlier post these hedges have worked out so well this year the rest are free for the rest of the year!

I'm just wondering what the perma bears are thinking now? They had an "almost" bear market which snapped back furiously. Even if they timed entries perfectly (they didn't!) they certainly didn't get out well. I just can't understand how painful it must be to be a perma bear?

I am 3 for 4 shorting PLTR but have ****ed up a 10 and 5 bagger long with them so take whatever I say about this company with a massive grain of salt.

I assume they are going to absolutely crush earnings here and there is good room to run even here. I think this would be setting up for another short after earnings but I am not going to be able to get short with the VIX above 20 and the term structure inverted.

It is incredibly hard to value this company though to give any kind of intrinsic value to the share price. I previously really under valued the optionality of their engineering talent, network graph and management that let them pivot so fast with AIP that is causing earnings to blow out here.

If I was managing someone's portfolio with 2k shares here I would just stay long until OpenAI /Anthropic / Google announce they have reached "AGI". I just don't see what stops AIP earnings between then and now as big Dilbert corporate bosses try to wrangle their data into LLMs. I think having a bullshitting language philosopher as CEO in the age of LLMs adds much more to the narrative than Peter Thiel but Peter Thiel doesn't hurt the narrative for sure.

The perfect position size to me is also slightly uncomfortable +1 at a certain confidence level of the bet. Not that you can't sleep but if you are completely comfortable with the position size, that is obviously too small. If a high conviction bet though it should be +1 of your comfort level.

I should also add that I faded derangement syndrome then added more the morning the VIX was at 50 with AI bets on NVDA and TSM. I just couldn't get there with PLTR. I know it was a great trade long but I just have these emotional hangups from peeling out of 5 baggers. The scaling properties of the business model are just so bad though and why I can justify any floor on the price in my head.

NVDA bets while up so far are actually a bit disappointing. I know Damodaran thinks NVDA is over valued here. I would never sell anything with the VIX term structure inverted but I suppose my NVDA bets here are more AI insurance policies than anything.

Fading derangement syndrome let me fix my portfolio from stupid risk off to bearish. T-bill auction this week was beautiful fills.

Shkreli isn't the worst because he actually focuses on valuation instead of nonsense from what I have seen but it still makes no sense to waste your time with this when you can just become a devotee of Aswath Damodaran.

Damodaran gives all his knowledge away completely for free on his homepage and youtube. He literally goes out of his way to give away his knowledge for free.

I was lucky enough to have run into Victor Neidherhoffer starting out that basically said focus on two books. Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns and Investment Valuation by Damodaran.

You don't even have to bother with Triumph of the Optimists. It is all in the title and obvious with index investors.

If people were serious the online debate would be between Investment Valuation and if you really need to bother with the Dark Side of Valuation or not.

The mean and median person though in 2025 is just ****ing clueless and this scales to basically everything.

Victor Niederhoffer, colloquially known as The Blow-Up Artist (The New Yorker article), who famously closed down 2 hedge funds because of losses and drawdowns so big that he was forced out.

And you call the mean and median person clueless?

Then it likely fits your style more than most but still overly costly.

And you're right: Bears virtually never make money except in the very short term.

That poster is a clueless donkey.

Dark Side of Valuation is a good read though.

My best performing stock that I've held for 12 months is Phillip Morris. Never would have guessed that in a million years last year, unless I suspect the markets would drop 30%+, which they haven't.

Lilly's done 43% CAGR for 5 years. Nice.

"Liberation Day"

TMDX just crushed the numbers today, a top 15 position for me, still looks highly undervalued esp compared to recent M/A deals and public comps given their growth rate and margins.

Tapestry also with a good report, as did APP yesterday. Added to all 3. APP is a significant position for me.

I saw someone on twitter say FED is back to buying bonds, QE, they were saying in the ten year. Is this true, was it a one time thing... Anyone know why, or what they are doing?

I am open to the fact that I may have been fooled on twitter, not unusal for me.

total container-ship is UP over the Biden period.

“Number of Chinese container ships sailing to the US from China now higher than on May 10, 2024 and higher than on May 10, 2023.” -

It's not true. They're still doing QT. The mechanics of how they maintain their balance sheet is complicated and involves buying back treasury securities even when their balance sheet is running off. It's easy to get fooled if you aren't an otaku bond trader.

Agreed, just normal Fed open market operations.

and
LOL Bears