Turnarounds and value plays typically take a bit longer than a month. Usually at least a year or five. It looks like your thesis doesn't match your bet.

My opinion on the company: Their burn rate is bad and debt load is absolutely ridiculous. The hole they have dug is insurmountable, imo. The interim CEO already had a leadership role in the company prior to the news, so he isn't exactly new blood showing up to kick ass and take names.

As an aside, keep finding stocks. It was fun to look into this one.

I'm bullish on IRBT. Amazon wants it for the tech to use in warehouses as well as the vaccum cleaners for Alexa integration. The price is a drop in the Amazon bucket. So Amazon will likely give whatever remedies/concessions needed to close. Big spread.

I also like $SAVE. Merger trial in October.

Possible coup in Russia from Wagner.

What is the trade?

Try to not be a Russian oligarch over this weekend. If you aren't, you should be fine.

Short Oil? Close to unsustainably low already though imo

Ah. That pithy old trading advice:

When the remaining second world country has a coup.
Always short oil, it is the thing that you should do.

All as over as soon as it started, very weird.

Markets are closed. It is all a conspiracy to make you think you should become a trader.

LO8 is a more profitable game, fwiw.

Happy Tuesday, all!

It's been a few weeks and today's a bit later than usual, but I figured I'd get back on the saddle sooner rather than later. I'll start off with WBD - up this morning following the release of 'Harry Potter: Magic Awakened', a mobile game. They've been trending down the last 2-3 weeks, and likely because stockholders think this game will be a flop. Now when I first saw the trailer and thought it was another mobile card battler exactly like CoC, I was disappointed, but looking at the gameplay trailer I think the app is a lot more expansive than most mobile games. Considering the target audience of Harry Potter merch is plebs in their 40s, going with a mobile app is probably the best bet and I wouldn't be surprised if this is fairly successful. Especially considering there was almost no hype around the app, there's no expectation for it to live up to, so most people will go into it blind and probably find it more fun than Hogwarts Legacy. I find WBD to be an easy, short buy right now.

Yeah it looks like the dip is getting bought on everything. Looks like they are moving into industrials this week XLI in BV XLI calls. getting wrecked on a bunch of stuff like UNG calls but JETS 21 calls for this week are up 700% here. Luckily i bought two weeks out the other week. bought monthly puts on a bunch of cyclicals and WW. REAL TAST .34 current ratio, RSI Rush Street. Actually found a good one thumbing through a bunch of stocks. ROVR is a pet stock I never knew about. Pet spending is virtually recession proof. Hearing TSLA got more charging markets secured. EVGO CHPT have be toast eventually it seems.

Want to elaborate on this? Not very familiar with hedging within options trades; I usually just do value plays.

Hard agree on pet spending though, at least in the upper echelon of society.

Unrelated edit: Looks like google is trying their hand at AI assisted search functions, at least with their new google search labs. Their stock has probably already reacted to this news though, I doubt any plays can be made here. Still, interesting nonetheless.

I ran a stock screen for stocks that IPO'd in the last 3 years to find stuff that could have possibly only gone public in a super low rate environment with peak cycle hype. At the end of an IPO cycle there's obviously companies that aren't really deserving of the IPO valuations.

The REAL is a luxury goods website aggregator. I don't think it has any moat. If there is any sort of serious consumer spending downturn I don't see how they can manage that. I don't think a recession is 100% needed to see them struggle though.

TAST went from $2 to $6 this year but the balance sheet is terrible. current ratio is basically a metric on ability to pay the bills. Lots of negative earnings quarters. They are right on brink of profitability barely if they even pull it off. negative free cash flow in trailing twelve months.

BMBL is same kind of thing with IPO. Flighty industry. Bad performing stock for a long time

Happy Thursday!

Quick post today -- got some work to do. UEC looks like its about to explode, given volume and direction of trades for the last week. Tea leaves suggest a potentially large movement. No idea of the direction, looking at an iron condor for now.

BlackBerry jumped this morning, tea leaves suggest it's running out of steam already. Hopefully I can drop my call before it devalues by a million percent.

That's all for me today.

If you like rare elements miners check out ticker UUUU I did some research on this one. Growth is strong. On the BB. Lots of lower quality high short stuff is running look at CVNA W Wayfair. The participation in other sectors is starting to come in. not just the top 10 stocks anymore. I added to SLGC calls, CONN puts today. Only thing that could blow this rally is more regional banks blowing. Market is proving it can run without them but they are the elephant in the room to me.

Seeing news Aspartame is more of a carcinogen than previously thought. Could be a big hit to KO PEP if this catches steam. BUD sales down big again on weekly basis.

Keep an eye on NKLA for a squeeze. think it is 25% short right now. TOP squeezing. This one blows up retail shorts. could keep going

do you believe in the efficient market theorem, that all stocks are valued at what they are worth, and that all the big banks with all their money and instant transactions help perpetuate this.

In the long run people don't pay a dollar and 20 cents for bills that are valued at a dollar.

Similarly, if dollars are selling for 80 cents in the market, they will quickly be bought bringing their intrinsic value back up to a dollar.

The only exception is Dogecoin, which I consider to be real money.

Realistically, that won't even bother their prices. KO will just release a "new and improved" diet drink and PEP probably won't even react. People who drink those know the drinks are toxic, but they don't care.
Now liquid death, or any other nu-beverage marketed towards millennials (health conscious shopaholics in their 30's) would suffer, so short beverages that have an emphasis on being a "healthy" drink, but not beverages that claim to be a "sports" drink. Those are usually caffeinated; consumers will ignore the threat of cancer to get their hit of caf.

I'll definitely +1 for UUUU though, used to swing trade them in 2020, they move pretty regularly.

Those are a lot of assumptions that history doesn't agree with. I researched the history of diet soda and when they have to reformulate the consumer reaction has been really bad. I mean there's even the "new Coke" experiment in the mid '80s that was a serious hit to Coca-Cola so bad Warren Buffett came in and invested then. That was the catalyst that sparked his initial investment in KO. When you switch the taste there is no guarantee people will like it. It's a huge risk. Tab soda was the big seller in the old days and the formula tinkering and cancer studies were a big destroyer of it. Most the people in this forum probably haven't drank a Tab. It was one of the most popular drinks in the '70s and 80s. They even had many flavor varieties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diet_drink

https://source.colostate.edu/the-ris...a-gets-canned/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/30-year...-coke-failure/

The consumer is pretty stupid, so it is possible that there will be a loss of sales.

You are at a small additional risk of cancer if you drink 17 gallons of diet soft drinks per day.

The thing too is this study that just came out is from the WHO. If they hadn't blown their credibility with Covid there might be more of a reaction. I imagine there won't be any additional studies to corroborate because I'm sure everybody is in these big Companies back pockets. This could just blow over. XLI booming today. I'm gonna hold

There have been a lot of studies. There will be recommendations by WHO, FDA and whatever the EU agency is. Just like always. There already were recommendations from the various agencies that you don't drink a vat of diet cola every day. They might change it to no more than half a vat per day.

The issue is that there is news on news sites. Some consumers know how to read and know how to freak out. Most of those who freak out were probably already freaking out and either in the group subsisting on a diet consisting of twigs and berries or in the group waddling aroud eating 300 grams per day of real natural white sugar mixed with Crisco because of reasons.

Riding momentum is usually a good idea.

The thing is, the 1970's and 1980's were 40 years ago. Consumers have changed; most people my age (early 20's is, in fact, gen Z) don't even drink coke. Just coffee/green tea or "health" drinks. Now if a study came out saying PRIME or Bang causes cancer, I could wholly agree people would drop it instantly, but at this point, the people drinking coke probably will not change their habits for any reason.

Now, Bang does actually contain aspartame, but it also has 300mg of caffeine. Probably safe to say most Bang drinkers don't care about wellbeing. I think the only thing that could really have an effect on modern drink markets is another creatine scandal.

Hey trading buddy! lol Yeah, that's a good point on the generation thing. I remember Coke trying to do some wild variations to appeal to Gen z and millennials. Seems they are out of touch in that market still. I used to drink Bang when I managed a restaurant staying up to 3am. It's sucralose sweetner as far as I remember.

JETS is still going. The TSA reported record travel a couple days ago. comparable to 2019. It's booming out there. NKE hinted at strong Chinese consumer. I think China might actually join this. JD stock.