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2021 Trading Thread 2021 Trading Thread

02-19-2021 , 05:18 PM
Finally gave up on BABA for options positions. Price action has been funky and a lot of the flow/dark pool type stuff was getting me more concerned than hopeful.

Bad week overall for me. Need to work on plugging my leaks of overtrading, revenge trading, and not being great with stops.

The market feels funky to me right now. Worried that the huge amount of overvalued garbage out there is going to wreak havoc on everything else sooner rather than later. I'm still positioned very long with a decent-sized hedge, but I wish I had more money on the sidelines.
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02-19-2021 , 07:38 PM
Sorry about BABA, I noticed I have felt less stress with the stock market overall when I stopped buying options 2 months or so ago after my last buy. Up overall since and when I do lose at least it won't most likely be large percentages, just wait it out or sell for a small loss. It's not exciting as I don't have a large amount at the moment, but I can focus on other things more and a stock move won't ruin my day.
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02-19-2021 , 07:49 PM
It's because when you're on the buy side your default position is a loss that you are fighting against time and volatility to make up for.
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02-20-2021 , 11:05 AM
I'm seeing fewer and fewer things I like long dated calls for. Even shorter term calls in stuff like HD/LOW is pricing in a 20% gain just to break even.

Been a great 2 years, up 1000% over that period, but it's starting to feel like it's going to be a struggle to make gains going forward. Buying some more dividend stocks like T and writing CCs against them, not sure if I'm going to be doing much else. All the hype is around crypto and I have zero knowledge of what crypto companies are legit vs frauds, and can't see buying actual crypto at these prices right now either.
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02-20-2021 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BilldaCat
I'm seeing fewer and fewer things I like long dated calls for. Even shorter term calls in stuff like HD/LOW is pricing in a 20% gain just to break even.

Been a great 2 years, up 1000% over that period, but it's starting to feel like it's going to be a struggle to make gains going forward. Buying some more dividend stocks like T and writing CCs against them, not sure if I'm going to be doing much else. All the hype is around crypto and I have zero knowledge of what crypto companies are legit vs frauds, and can't see buying actual crypto at these prices right now either.
Incredible, congrats.

Did you move from poker to trading a long time ago?
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02-20-2021 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
Incredible, congrats.

Did you move from poker to trading a long time ago?
I've gone through spurts of trading .. really picked it back up 3-4 years ago.

Poker I play a little more often now that I'm in a state that lets me play legally online, but maybe once/twice a week, usually PLO. Not so much a fan of NL any more.
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02-20-2021 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowie963
Sorry about BABA, I noticed I have felt less stress with the stock market overall when I stopped buying options 2 months or so ago after my last buy. Up overall since and when I do lose at least it won't most likely be large percentages, just wait it out or sell for a small loss. It's not exciting as I don't have a large amount at the moment, but I can focus on other things more and a stock move won't ruin my day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
It's because when you're on the buy side your default position is a loss that you are fighting against time and volatility to make up for.
Yeah, it's a tough and easily stressful game playing options. There's still a universe of stuff I need to learn but I've been enjoying the ride and doing pretty well for my level of experience so far, despite making a ton of mistakes. I think I'm going to start putting on the brakes more and focusing nearly exclusively on my highest conviction set-ups instead of overtrading like a mofo and taking on a bunch of overly speculative positions like I've been doing the last few weeks; I can't continue to keep taking on stuff that I'm not able to manage optimally due to having my hands in too many places. The market hasn't been very punishing to mistakes the last few months and I don't think that's going to last forever. I think a lot of newer traders like myself are in for a rude awakening when market conditions change and I don't want to be among those caught off-guard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BilldaCat
I'm seeing fewer and fewer things I like long dated calls for. Even shorter term calls in stuff like HD/LOW is pricing in a 20% gain just to break even.

Been a great 2 years, up 1000% over that period, but it's starting to feel like it's going to be a struggle to make gains going forward. Buying some more dividend stocks like T and writing CCs against them, not sure if I'm going to be doing much else. All the hype is around crypto and I have zero knowledge of what crypto companies are legit vs frauds, and can't see buying actual crypto at these prices right now either.
I agree. The r/r to the long side seems like **** for so many tickers. I probably need to learn about selling options.

Last edited by karamazonk; 02-20-2021 at 05:04 PM.
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02-22-2021 , 09:39 AM
8 airlines upgraded by Deutsche after an engine falls from the sky. SAVE PT $44 now.

wish I hadn't sold off my 30c now, but wanted to lock in profits. still have 35c that are up 100% and will continue to hold here, might look to exit around low 40s.
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02-22-2021 , 03:13 PM
got into some TAP calls when I saw the recommendation, not feeling great about my strike (jul 55c), may close out some other positions next week and add or roll out to jan 2022 55c
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02-22-2021 , 08:42 PM
As an alternative to Danavation Technologies Inc, look to Pricer AB. It trades in Stockholm, but has customers world-wide, including Canadian Tire. Electronic shelf labels are a huge market - tying them in with supply change systems, every major retailer is going to be rolling them out within a couple years. It may be that Danavation becomes the industry-leader, but I think you're missing out if you only invest in them: don't make an all-or-nothing bet on the ESL market.

Pricer AB (Stockholm): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRIC-B.ST/

Ses Imagotag (Paris): https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SESL:FP

Anyone know of any other publicly traded market leaders? Feel free to post them.

---

A little scary too - from Wikipedia: Third generation: Geo-location and product finder
The current generation of ESL utilize e-paper display and radio communication, though with the addition of integration with existing retail applications such as electronic article surveillance, digital signage, and people counter. With the integration to various people counter devices, whether it is powered through video counting technology or Bluetooth beacons, it will be able to track the visitors that are within the store based on the consumers' movement. Retailers are able to upload a floor plan of the sales floor into the label management software. Consumers are tracked through the people counting device or their Bluetooth devices to determine their positioning within the store at all times.

Anyone else remember Minority Report and their personalized ads?
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02-23-2021 , 09:36 AM
let's see if SQ/AAPL earnings after hours stop the tech slide or accelerate it
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02-23-2021 , 10:20 AM
bargains todays ... or falling knives?
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02-23-2021 , 10:52 AM
What an open today, wish I had cash but full in per usual. Stay safe out there!
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02-23-2021 , 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
bargains todays ... or falling knives?
Lots of big names calling bubble/blow off top for a bit now, and lots of signs of late stage mania and now meme stocks crashing. What does 2p2 think?
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02-23-2021 , 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by RedQueenDream
Lots of big names calling bubble/blow off top for a bit now, and lots of signs of late stage mania and now meme stocks crashing. What does 2p2 think?
I think **** like $V, $BAC, and $DIS being green while memes die in the streets tells you what you need to know. Safe harbors are safe for a reason.

Can't figure out $AAPL to save my life tho
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02-23-2021 , 04:35 PM
What a day. Really took me back to March/April 2020
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02-23-2021 , 06:06 PM
I guess the yield curve had to come up eventually but none of us were expecting it so soon. Recalculating the discount rate on companies that won't be profitable for 5+ years really destroys today's value of their future cash flows.
The end of day recovery looked really strong though too bad it dipped again right before the close kinda gives mixed feelings for tomorrow.
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02-23-2021 , 08:24 PM
ended up .7% on the day despite all the chaos. value/blue chips kept me alive, while my more speculative plays got destroyed. obviously a lesson there.
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02-23-2021 , 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BilldaCat
ended up .7% on the day despite all the chaos. value/blue chips kept me alive, while my more speculative plays got destroyed. obviously a lesson there.
I was down huge at one point but ended up being slightly profitable on the day thanks to some well-timed TSLA calls. But, I'm down pretty big overall since last Monday and so many spec plays have just been murdered.

I think we really need these ultra speculative stocks and ARK ETFs to chill the eff out and come back down to earth. Could be an ugly ride in getting to that point.
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02-23-2021 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
I think we really need these ultra speculative stocks and ARK ETFs to chill the eff out and come back down to earth. Could be an ugly ride in getting to that point.
I'm scared of this, which is why I have a large amount of my portfolio in SPAC's trading near NAV without DA.
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02-23-2021 , 09:52 PM
Put on SOI long today. oil services company. Good print today
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02-23-2021 , 09:54 PM
Sold puts on AI in the morning.
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02-24-2021 , 11:05 AM
Any reasons not to put a lot of money into roblox ipo (for a short time at least)?
It's gonna be ridiculously valued I expect.
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02-24-2021 , 11:41 AM
Up 100% on AMC 10c. Just gonna let it ride. I'm looking for 15-20$
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02-24-2021 , 11:49 AM
this is all obv just yields messing w DCF models but ARK seems really interesting to me.

cathy has to sell her liquid positions to cover big moves in her illiquid positions. their risk manager's linkedin has his most recent job as an account executive for a local news station.

i'm not gonna boy-who-cried wolf but there are elements here that remind me of LTCM. it's not impossibly to imagine a situation of outflows causing a feedback loop nuclear bomb which hedge funds gun for.

anyone have an opinion on this? not gonna xpost in that other ark thread cuz not as many eyeballs.

edit - i misspoke, they dont actually have a risk guy and its their ops who was at a local news station
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