vix back to 12 handle, i'm on vacation til the trade war heats up again. could be slowest month of my career. very low vol in lots of other stuff too. there's grind-y money to be made but after the insanity of aug/sep/early oct i'm snoozing.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

wallstreetbets hitting new ATH's lately

Yeah, the whole leveraging 1.7k into >1mm stuff is insane

Still

Hahahahhahahahah

Dude you're delusional. You're clueless about interest rates and your track record proves it.

Best part is some of them think they can just file bankruptcy if they go into a debit. Going to be a rude awakening...

It's fairly unlikely Robinhood will go after them given that it's a glitch in their system and the chances of recovery are near zero. I think it's very +EV to exploit this bug if your net worth is low. The guys provably committing fraud who put the screenshots of their account/strategy up are potentially in for trouble though.

Robinhood is going to sue someone with no assets to recover their losses? That brokerage doesn't make enough money off order flow to sustain a bunch of these hits. Live in Belarus and wait for Robinhood to file eventual bankruptcy.

If it's fraud it's not dischargeable in bankruptcy meaning they can garnish wages or seize property with impunity. The reason they probably don't go after him is because they don't have legal staff/ too expensive to hire lawyers They could sell the debt to a debt purchaser or collector though. They would be interested in pursuing.

Someone's coming for the 50k, but probably not robinhood.

Yeah, it's not +ev. It's mega negative EV if you do it and post in reddit about it. Increasing the odds a court will have direct evidence of you intentionally and knowingly defrauding Robinhood.

Nice to know fraud is ok when "it's just a glitch". You're a weird guy tooth.

This is absurd analysis. It's definitely +EV for people with low amounts of money for values of P(Robinhood will pursure and be successful) less than about 70% imo. And I think that number is way less than 70%.

This is just you being completely unable to analyze anything intelligently.
Who ever said fraud was ok? Dispassionately analyzing whether something is +EV has nothing to do with whether it's ok. I think poker is highly immoral and I can still analyze the EV of it.

I've spend hours arguing against penny stock fraud and Tesla fraud in this very thread. I'm very anti fraud. You're a weird and super creepy guy who tries to smear at any chance he gets, with zero evidence. Might want to look at yourself, pal.

Lol. Y'ok tooth. It's not fraud to manipulate a glitch and use money that you can't get legitimately. Good one.

Of course it's fraud. I never said otherwise. What's wrong with you that you desperately try to dishonestly smear all the time?

Everyone else is laughing at how absurd this glitch (and the reaction of the fraudster YOLOs) is and you choose to be Frightened Inmate #2/Mr "I took a Law For Social Workers course and now I post about the law everywhere!" about it. This applies to you bro:
It's a hilarious and very +EV fraud that these Robin Hood guys are doing. The end.

Hey, if committing fraud and yolo'ing options is your idea of a good bet. You do you tooth.

It's stupid to call that positive ev though.

The EV is a simple equation.

EV = (expected return from trading)*(size you can get) + (the average from the integration of all positive variance outcomes) - (the average from the integration of all negative variance outcomes) * P(the odds of actually paying out that negative variance)

This is positive for even substantially negative expected return if the final P() is substantially less than 100%, which it is. It's insanely +EV if P is under 50%, which it probably is.

If you can't analyze EV dispassionately you should probably stay out of pursuits which involve risk.

It might be fraud, but looking at this morally, ripping off Robinhood on a glitch which their risk management failed to see is way more moral than playing Internet poker against drunks, grannies, gambling addicts and stupid people. Which makes your critique doubly weird given that you're on a poker site.

I understand how EV is calculated, lol.

Yeah, the fact they committed fraud means they will be 100% on paying the negative variance. You can't discharge a debt that was acquired fraudulently. Robinhood will sell the debt and it will be collected. Literally, the collector's can garnish their wages and get liens on any assets without the debtor having recourse bc they can't file for bankruptcy. That is going to happen. The consequences are high. Plus more than likely they will be able to charge legal fees plus interest on the debt owed. It's the easiest kind of debt to collect. Further, there would normally be a question of proving the fraud, but, in this case, the fraudsters have published their actions and thoughts on the internet.

This is not +EV it's a massive life changing risk. It's not a joke.

Internet lawyer who took "Law for Social Workers" opinion and now holds forth on the law in every thread:
Actual lawyer opinion:
The "100%" on paying is an absolute howler. Have you ever been out in the real world? How are you failing on about four different levels of analysis/real world knowledge? It's amazing.

1. Collection rates are very very low, which is why debt sells for cents on the dollar. They have to find you, have branches where you live, serve you, etc.
2. Fraud is far from proven/provable in this case. LOL at the notion of a debt collector subpoenaing reddit to prove you posted about knowingly committing fraud. Jesus man.
3. Robin Hood contributed to the problem by not patching this quickly (it's still not patched)
4. Conviction rates are low even if we accept this is 100% fraud. They're even worse when the company contributed to the losses/should have protected their subscribers. Robinhood failed on multiple levels here.
5. It's -EV for them to go after broke people, particularly through the courts, which is one reason why collection rates are low
6. The odds of them going after the debt given PR and other consideration is alone a lot less than 100%

You manage to be wrong about absolutely everything you post. It's a gift bro. No one should every listen to anything you say, you can't analyze a single thing intelligently.

Quoting CNBC is laughable for obvious reasons. I never said anything about securities fraud. You can't file bankruptcy if the debt was incurred fraudulently. That's a decision a bankruptcy judge makes and the burden to prove it is substantially lower than in a criminal proceeding (there are no conviction rates in civil proceedings, like, wtf are you talking about). You continue to miss my point and strawman away.

Robin Hood's contribution, the bug, has nothing to do with it. If an atm is bugged and you can withdraw more money then you know is in the account it's still fraud.

Further, yes, pursuing legal action against a debtor can be -EV if it requires legal action but not always. Their are law firms that specialize in debt collection and this is as juicy as it gets for those firms. You have debtors who are permanently on the hook for 50k or more. Finally, if you don't think social media is used extensively in litigation then you clearly know nothing.

You are arguing that it is an acceptable risk, it's not.

Finally, I'm done with this argument. I'm not so vain as to assume anyone here cares about what we are talking about.

/end derail

Lol. That's good.

Bought some $260 AAPL 11/22 calls this morning on tariff news/break of ATH.... Room to go up more or bag holder territory?

Leaning baggy with this breaking news, 7 minutes ago: White House Plan To Roll Back China Tariffs Faces Fierce Internal Opposition; No Final Decision Made Yet - Reuters

Congrats on trading news though instead of listening to the utter ******s who advocate technical analysis.

Also, why such long dated calls? And why so late in the game, up 20% in a month already? The odds that you're generating significant alpha buying options here after a move this large (aided by the market no less) is pretty damn low. It's not like this is a wholesale shift in Apple sentiment or a multi year reversal off lows that can actually generate the massive outsized returns that are ultimately what get you paid when you analyze over all outcomes.

edit: If I was going to guess outcomes from long experience, after a run this big in this situation I'd say 40% of the time you end with it hovering around $260 while your time value expires, 25% of the time it goes higher than strike (10% of the time above $270) for about 100% average payoff, and 35% of the time if goes down below your strike just on a breather after this run. It's really hard to see +EV in this trade imo. Trade war sending the stock market happy and much higher and pulling Apple up with it needs to be a very high probability to get over the -EV base nature of the trade imo.

As to the first question, I suppose because I was burned recently on being right about a move but not giving myself enough time (not on AAPL, on BYND).

As to the second question, I was long AAPL calls before earnings as well (in an earlier position). Felt like rolling some of those gains ahead given today and AAPL/China being somewhat correlated.

Funny how I posted this right as that headline hit