Tooth, would you adjust anything if you were in a 401k, compared to having a lump sum invested?

Well today was just classic stop fishing in the ES. As long as ES doesn't fall and remain below its fomer value zone between 2405 and 2417 nothing is gonna happen. Don't make trades based on your opinions.

I disagree with you guys, I think equities continue to grind higher and any corrections should be snap bought.

What's left is the main thing that's already been propping it up: Liquidity via the Fed. Good news is good news (economic recovery = more profits!), bad news is good news (no hikes, more printing!).

I'm with you on it looking toppy at times, but I don't see a minor political scandal derailing a bull market that is predicated on liquidity. If something takes it down, it will probably be a crisis starting in China or Europe.

I wouldn't call it a "normal" economic recovery. It's a mild nominal recovery due to massive QE and suppressed interest rates. The fact that a bunch of part-time and/or service jobs have been created in the process obscures the declining labor force participation rate, etc. Lower rates allow companies to borrow money for next to nothing and buy shares back. It's a manipulated, distorted market and has been for quite some time. I just don't see a unique near-term impetus for a substantial correction, although it certainly could happen any time.

Earnings were really good this past quarter, the fundamentals can always be poked for weakness. To try to short the indices when managers are begging for corrections, when Americans ownership of stocks is historically low but their amount of cash in checking accounts (ESP the younger you go) gaining no yield is absurdly high, has and will continue to be a giant mistake. It's never been easier to hedge and plenty have and are.

Target individual names if you want to short, playing the indices for a correction is a dumb bet with so few catalysts on the horizon. Lock to get a rate hike everyone knows is coming in a few weeks and Trump is just a noise maker with little real impact in the action. You had that one day a couple weeks ago after all the Comey news blew up and as usual anyone who overreacted was punished.

I expect some bumps when the fed finally starts reducing the balance sheet. I mean, it's 2017. Time for the bailouts to end and reload for the next downturn. Although it'll take years for that to roll-off, so who knows. We'll get an update on that in a few weeks anyways.

Japan and Europe are not stopping QE & those same arguments were brought up a few years ago when the US Fed slowed and then stopped purchasing. This is a global rally where many countries are breaking out of years and sometimes decades worth of consolidation. USA is likely to lag but that still doesn't mean you outright short.

Good piece on that from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/financ...me-town-global

im agreeing with TS on this play, I also went along with some spy puts..

the 6/23 243's

good risk/reward

I'm sure this kind of trade will work out for you someday. Doesn't make it a good structure or a quality play.

This is from March and outlines the risks:

https://www.ft.com/content/7725b482-...a-903b21361b43

I think you're all wrong about central bank money as a continued driver. It's the standard explanation these days, but ultimately the markets track corporate profit, and track them them pretty closely. The stagnation in the markets from early 2015 to Trump's election was all driven by stagnant corporate profits:



And the rip on Trump's election was based on his ultra business friendly ideologies boosting the economy and hence corporate profits.

But the optimism has outrun corporate profit growth pretty badly (it's a long line up from 2009 to 2015), and the market is now kind of hangingn out in low vol fairlyland as people with ASAPs philosophies chase it higher. That wouldn't matter if the economy was doing what was hoped at the start of this year, but it isn't; it's weaker than hoped and more and more data is confirming that. Beige book and employment are warning signs. This makes a correction soon fairly likely, imo; we're too high for what reality is showing or for where corporate profits can go bar Trump doing some miracle work.

I'd welcome a correction so would many that's what you don't understand. The trend is still higher until proven otherwise. All that matters is price.

I agree. Betting on a correction is hardly a trading setup, it's like buying a lottery ticket. Don't try to be the hero, wait for the correction and trade it accordingly then.

correction = clearance sale. nowadays everyone has a trade app in their pocket and as soon as one name brand stock tanks the vol will pickup in less than 1 hr. "ath" is like a cliche at this point and should be minted in crypto. IMO, if we get a crash the market will recover faster since alot of cash is still on the sidelines.

I don't see equities stopping just yet. There are no real catalysts that could actually make a huge dent. I do think there is a bit more value in European markets now then the US. If we take a look at for a example on corporate earnings in Europe they are still growing.

I used to be worried about Trump but now starting to see it as a more non-event and only if he does get impeached i could see a slight (5%) drop which again seems like the perfect spot to buy the dip since the alternative is what? Pence?

I would much rather get long in a "corrected" market than short in an "uncorrected" one. Stock market has an upward bias. The past decade (and more) has conditioned its players that any and all dips should be bought. And now most stuff that used to send a scare into things are just sloughed off. We will have a correction sometime again maybe even severe but I think that is when you want to push your chips in the middle. Not guessing that it happens but taking advantage of it after it does.

Correction likely? Sure, depending on your definition of correction. Bull market coming to an end in the near future? Not even close.

I think we see equities grind higher in the short-mid term as well.

Apple might be worth considering for a short here. Currently $154.20 premarket. Broadcom seems to be confirming long-rumored iPhone 8 delay. Apple is currently priced for absolute perfection in execution, and then some.

I'm long NetEase/NTES, expecting it to squeeze quite a bit as it clears $300 and tests ATHs at $308. For the chartists out there, really nice setup and base developing the past few months.

WB Weibo China's social networking done consolidating, NOMD gearing for another push. Longing both

Anybody long SHOP? Is there more room to run in the near term?

Of course, but how often do you get the opportunity to get long in a corrected market? When was the last correction? Election?


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The fact that are fewer opportunities kinda proves my point. There is a strong upward bias in effect. But more specifically I prefer to get long on dips on uptrends more than I would like to get short on spikes in downtends since shorting often costs borrow costs and the payment of dividends.

I prefer to stick with the prevailing trend though rather than try to pick out tops and bottoms. Selling in the face of a runaway freight train or buying a falling knife don't fit my strategies.

Rarely do the noise makers talk about HYG (corporate high yield) but that is an insane uptrend since those lows in early '16. Relentless inflows rocketing it higher. Historically it performs a bit worse than the S&P but is considerably less volatile/risky. Very hard to have a short bias with that kind of strength and trend especially prior to breaking it.