I agree with your points, but you guys are talking about 90% of users (original content, ease of use, owning both). It's the 10% that matter. I don't think you realize how little it will take to staunch NFLX's user growth and erode the prospect of margin growth. No more US growth and no prospect of improving margins means that NFLX are worth $30, not $106.

"NFLX are great in multiple ways, AMZN aren't close yet" is a tarded way of looking at the totality of this development imo. I agree with you, but still think this is the end for NFLX.

You're also assuming that Amazon - which crushed every other online bookseller, then online retailer, then ate into B&M retailers, then pioneered the cloud against the bulwarks such as IBM despite not being an IT company; a company who has an amazingly simple and useful interface - can't greatly improve their offering (interface, content, etc) now that they've decided that it's worth selling separately and going head to head with NFLX rather than as part of the basket for Prime users.

edit: Let me put it another way: What is the maximum percentage of existing subs & new subs that NFLX can lose for the strong growth story to be untarnished?

DVAX is presenting about drugs at 3:45 today. Got some may 20th $25 calls. Should be positive news.

Amazon prime was already only $99 a year? If you sign up for the new video only service it is more expensive and you don't get the prime deals and shipping. How is this more attractive than the $99 deal other than not having to pay the $99 up front?

It's not, but it is another way Amazon gets to highlight what a great value prime is.

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Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX): Q1 EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $1.96B (+24.8% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

Shares -12%.

lol.. i should have hold... -.-

NFLX getting hammered.

Man Kuwait saving people's bacon today. Wonder how that works, the Oil & Petrochemical Industries Workers decide to do this right as Doha fails? Could be coincidence obviously but seems like a person with the kind of influence to get the union to strike could have timed that just so. Anyway not complaining since I didn't unload my longs Friday.

Was looking for a new trade idea and came across this article about the bond market in China. Starting to wonder about shorting now after reading this. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...on-bond-market

Not enough.

KSA going into Doha and other countries expecting a deal, and then last minute changing their mind while at the same time workers strike in Kuwait seems too coincidental to me.

either way it seems like the pain in oil stocks is backed into the cake now and the market is front running the eventual recovery.

Timelines matter. This isn't the long-term investment thread. Amazon isn't going to make a dent for the foreseeable future in Netflix.

Did you take any profits on your short? We got a 7.00 print. I'm still short looking to take if off as soon as possible. It's a decent company in what has been a good industry as of late. Just look at SUI share price past 3 yrs.

You're wrong. The Amazon announcement is highly relevant to how it trades today. Netflix are predicting only 500,000 US adds next quarter - and this number was determined pre the Amazon announcement. If Netflix loses a mere 1 in 100 of its US members to the new Amazon service over the next quarter, and loses a mere 1/4 of its expected new adds (analysts are expecting it to lose half of these to Amazon), it goes into negative territory. According the conference call, it's already expecting modest "churn" from ungrandfathering of millions of accounts, so price is clearly an issue for some.

This is what people are thinking about it trades today post earnings. An example of an analyst comment:
So yes, it's extremely relevant for short term trading. More importantly, Netflix being "finished" means you can confidently short it here and ride the swings if it moves against you, as Netflix has zero upside for the rest of its existence. It's dead today.

Finally, the value/long term thread seems to be 1+ year time frames. This is the catch-all for everything else.

I missed it as I didnt have it set for auto trade. When I checked and saw the nice results, I placed my order that never filled.

I was only looking to return 1/2 my position for a freeroll. My target price going into the short is in 6.50 range.

Their forecast was relevant to how it will trade over the coming days/weeks.

They've been total crap at forecasting even over short periods. Their forecast based on their guess (approximately reliable as your average gamblers estimate of which number will come up next on the roulette wheel) at what Amazon means to their subscriber adds/turnover is just more crap.

Plus, Amazon won't make any difference at all to their growth/decline. It is barely more relevant to Netflix growth than the price of chicken wings.

After getting Doha wrong, I finally take a bit more pause when Tooth is 100% sure about something. That happens to be rare because he knows his stuff, but in a situation like this with Netflix I might be a bit more inclined to think about the possibility that it's not as bearish as he makes out. Damn fine at presenting an argument with conviction though.

Dude, I didn't get anything wrong. First you asked if it was even possible to have an agreement. I said:
Then you predicted an epic reversal if there was a "disaster" in Doha:
I said:
By "disaster" I thought you meant something where they deliberately try to tank oil. Not just a simple "no agreement", which was expected by the experts.

SPY is above all time closing highs right now, despite no agreement in Doha. So if by "disaster" you meant "no agreement", you couldn't have been more wrong.

You think people who've deeply analyzed price points vs sales, loss from de-grandfathering, Amazon switching rates, etc, aren't better at judging this than you? Some analysts think the new Amazon offering is going to take at least half of Netflix's future subscriber growth. That's extremely important - in these small difference are the difference between $106 ->$40 or $106->$150. This is how these things swing - manic momentum based on missing or hitting targets quarter after quarter, and where they guide. They are now guaranteed to miss with Amazon meaningfully competing in this space.

So a well financed competitor with an already superior list of SVoD and 15 million subscribers (and growing fast) now entering this space in direct competition with Netflix (and competing for content) "wont make any difference at all" to Netflix's growth/decline. Got it.

Huh? All Amazon did was introduce a new pricing plan for video only that is more expensive with less benefit than current prime member pricing designed for people too stupid to figure out current pricing is better. This doesn't impact Netflix even an a little bit.

That said Amazon is indeed competition for Netflix but not enough to get people to drop Netflix for Amazon as most will gladly have both. It is more of a threat to broadcasters. As people continue to cut the cable Netflix and Amazon will continue to grow and not at a cost to each other. Netflix is just too good to get people to drop Netflix because they have Amazon

Before you paid a lump sum up front for a Prime membership and got streaming video with it as an aside.

Now, you can choose from two streaming services. Amazon is $8.99 a month include HD and Netflix is $10+ a month. If you get bored with the horrible movie choice on Netflix (and declining), you can switch to Amazon with the same billing, save money, and have brand new titles, far more movies, and new exclusives, rather pay up front for Prime, which lots of people don't want.

What's more, Amazon video can be marketed as a pure streaming service for $8.99 a month with tens of thousands of titles. Before, you had to go through this weird procedure where you sign up for Prime and pay a lump sum up front. Lots of people will gladly perpetually pay $8.99 a month who won't fork out $90 up front, even though the $90 a year is better. That difference alone will drive defections/new additions.

Does that matter to rich people, or hardcore fans of Netflix shows? No. They'll stay with Netflix or have both. Will it matter to at least 1 in 100 of US Netflix users? You bet your ass it will. And if a mere 1 in 100 switch over in the next three months, Netflix records its first decline in US subs. What do you think that will do to the stock? You're analyzing the 90/95% of use cases/preferences and deciding "it doesn't matter", when it's really the 1% fringe that matters, and Netflix is so ramped up on craziness that the loss of that 1% will kill the growth story in the US and tank the stock.

I guess our disagreement is an example of why there's a market.

Sold them at 5.20. Hope you guys using this info for gain.

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Curious how you think that Prime has a better catalogue.

I have both Prime and Netflix.

And yeah, I think the analysts are going to be as accurate as they always are: worse than a magic 8 ball.

how many subscribers are dual owners of netflix and prime video? i feel like the cheap price point extends the timeframe of doom that TS is proposing.

I believe the number 20 million was mentioned last night for Amazon prime video in the NFLX earnings video conference (~50m have Prime, so I guess people a ton of people pay for it without using it).

And NFLX itself is now up to 45 million.

There are ~135 million households in the US, and ~90m households with broadband. This means that Amazon has 22% penetration among broadband households, and Netflix has 50% penetration.

Edit: for further comparison, HBO has about 50m subscribers and 1m stand-alone subscribers. Their profit margins are MUCH better than Netflix because their content offerings give them pricing power.

Hulu hit 9m subscribers a year ago, so I assume they're at 10+ at this point.

Netflix content will continue to be stronger than Amazons for the time being. Their original content is miles ahead of Amazon's and they have the Disney deal kicking in starting in 2016 running thru 2020 (they swiped it from Starz). Star War, Marvel, Pixar, etc etc.

Also Netflix is green-lighting original feature films with major stars like Will Smith etc. Amazon will have to massively step up their spending to be at the level of Netflix who are just spewing cash into original content.

I've had Amazon Prime Video for over a year and I've used it once. I think its more likely people would have both than just choose Amazon over Netflix as Netflix has all the shows that your friends and coworkers are talking about

Yup, which is why they're still growing. But this is illusory, because they're renting great content and streaming is becoming commodotized. Netflix does not own their three biggest hits (House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, and Daredevil). The first show they fully owned was Flaked, which was a turd. I don't know the status of new shows as to owned/licensed, but afaik Netflix has 0 hit shows where they own the IP.