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2016 Trading Thread 2016 Trading Thread

09-22-2016 , 01:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
And average people don't?
No, they don't.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
09-22-2016 , 09:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steiger
Sold right after opening ES oct 1890 puts, they already earned 50% of their premium
Bought them back this morning at 20%
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09-23-2016 , 10:01 AM
Awfully tempting to dump TWTR this morning
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09-23-2016 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
Awfully tempting to dump TWTR this morning
I'm a bit surprised CRM is interested but obviously satisfied there are two potential bidders. Options market has had this range in between $20-$27 as the offer price.

EDIT: also lol at the timing of that RBC downgrade. Well played boys.

Last edited by ASAP17; 09-23-2016 at 10:32 AM.
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09-23-2016 , 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
Awfully tempting to dump TWTR this morning
Same. Can't make a decision
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09-23-2016 , 11:53 AM
They are saying using the LNKD multiple gives you $26 on TWTR. But imo selling here isn't terrible
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09-23-2016 , 12:35 PM
Yea I'm out.
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09-23-2016 , 12:41 PM
No brainer dump at $22 imo. Market at highs, sale is uncertain (particularly now the price is higher), Twitter seems to have hired GS to explore a sale rather than people coming knocking. Sale may not be soon even if it happens.

Not a lot to sustain these prices. What's the upside? 20-30% you hit 50% of the time? vs no real bottom and plenty of near term downside if not much happens, which it probably won't.

Twitter was bargain basement for months not long ago - 35% cheaper - and no one came knocking
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09-23-2016 , 02:43 PM
I think the biggest mystery in TWTR today is why CRM is interested (they were runner up for LNKD) & if the deal doesn't happen w/ them (since I believe GOOG is more likely) is this a clear opportunity? Or is the action a continuation of their underperformance over the past few months relating to growth stalling & making aggressive bids to acquire it?

TWTR isn't really a growth company anymore so their interest is a bit confusing & that's probably why CRM is getting whacked so much harder than GOOG today. The potential synergies & ability to make a deal favor the latter.
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09-23-2016 , 02:50 PM
This isn't a great reason, but I think Benioff loves the **** out of twitter.
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09-23-2016 , 02:53 PM
But I do think that TWTR could be a very valuable source of data for CRM.

The new Einstein product could have a social media tie in and alert people to activity happening on social to help connect business opportunities. It is clear that social media is a really important channel for some of the world's premier retail brands and I think CRM is very keen to attract and keep these huge companies as customers.

Being able to use all of the data behind twitter, and opening it up to the salesforce developer ecosystem could be very powerful for twitter.

I have no doubt that whoever buys it is going to re-open to 3rd party integrators and developers like early twitter did. The twitter firehose is undoubtedly a place with one-of-a-kind data.
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09-23-2016 , 02:56 PM
It's really hard to get your head around this long game stuff. Over the course of the next 20 years, enduring market leadership in one area is worth hundreds of billions or more in profits.
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09-23-2016 , 06:23 PM
Does anybody trade fitbit? I can't imagine these guys can stay in business. It seems to be a highly competitive commodity type of market. Plus the quality of their product is crap.

I bought one last December (12 month warranty). After 4 months the battery gave out. I contacted them an they replaced it no questions asked. The newer ones band just broke. I contacted them again and they will be replacing it as well. So buying one fitbit and I'm already on the third one and I still have 3 months warranty left for the new one to blow up. There is no way they made any money on me. Plus once I am off warranty when it breaks there is no way I ever buy their product again since I find the quality suspect.

It is an addictive type of product though. It's just that there is no reason to buy another fitbit when it is really just a commodity and I know they break or malfunction very easily.

I know nothing about their financials but it seems like they are destined to go bust.
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09-25-2016 , 09:26 PM
Marc Andreessen just deleted all his tweets and is going on a twitter break.

Seems like maybe it is a sign of some of the recent twitter news?
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09-25-2016 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
Marc Andreessen just deleted all his tweets and is going on a twitter break.

Seems like maybe it is a sign of some of the recent twitter news?
Still sitting on 3/4's of a position. Was real close to selling when you did and talked myself out of it.
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09-25-2016 , 10:48 PM
I bought 9/30 expiry puts on TWTR right before market close on Friday. $22 strike.

Probably too reckless, guess we'll see how it plays out.
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09-26-2016 , 02:54 PM
Anyone going long the market into tonight? Feel like probability of Trump performing well in this arena is really low.
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09-26-2016 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
Anyone going long the market into tonight? Feel like probability of Trump performing well in this arena is really low.
Interesting. I feel like the probability of Hillary performing well is even lower.
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09-26-2016 , 04:05 PM
I know it's masochistic, but to see hildawg's eyes cross tonight from some illness mid question and then to see how the markets open tomorrow would be well worth telling grandchildren about one day. "And that was when we knew we were ****ed"
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09-26-2016 , 04:05 PM
i think being long into tonight (as some kind of debate scalp) is real stupid. the pain train (either fear or greed) can only be unleashed imo if it's really bad for clinton. i doubt ES rallies if she holds serve since trump doing trump things doesn't really push the needle. but if she fainted, then markets have to react to trump possibility.

im kinda pessimistic of the debate having any impact at all, but if it DID, it could only be to the downside imo. im ready to be wrong.
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09-26-2016 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I know it's masochistic, but to see hildawg's eyes cross tonight from some illness mid question and then to see how the markets open tomorrow would be well worth telling grandchildren about one day. "And that was when we knew we were ****ed"
or if u trade futures like me u can trade the eye cross in real time!
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09-26-2016 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
or if u trade futures like me u can trade the eye cross in real time!
lol people front-running eye cross futures with fiber connections. What a world
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09-26-2016 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Interesting. I feel like the probability of Hillary performing well is even lower.
agreed. odds are Trump beats expectations given they are set to basically "Does he talk about his penis? If No, Trump wins debate"

HRC is likely to come off as the awful politician that she is on some question about her emails/benghazi/foundation etc.
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09-26-2016 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
i think being long into tonight (as some kind of debate scalp) is real stupid. the pain train (either fear or greed) can only be unleashed imo if it's really bad for clinton. i doubt ES rallies if she holds serve since trump doing trump things doesn't really push the needle. but if she fainted, then markets have to react to trump possibility.

im kinda pessimistic of the debate having any impact at all, but if it DID, it could only be to the downside imo. im ready to be wrong.
Everyone knows all of this already, it's amusing to me how the risk perception is nothing happens to all downside. Seriously, where are the bulls?

Today's action was related to DB & the financials, it had little to do with the debate which I feel is mostly noise anyways.
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09-26-2016 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Everyone knows all of this already, it's amusing to me how the risk perception is nothing happens to all downside. Seriously, where are the bulls?
again, i dont think the debate is going to move the needle. i'll be near my computer since i'm always near the computer.

i have people telling me that even if trump won, market conditions would still be status quo. i find that very hard to believe.

basically i know nothing so i'm just gonna eat popcorn tonight.
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