Everybody saying traffic on Stars is way down but the stock keeps going up. Hoping for a horrible earnings report and maybe some bad news about the CEO, get under $10.
Everybody saying traffic on Stars is way down but the stock keeps going up. Hoping for a horrible earnings report and maybe some bad news about the CEO, get under $10.
Your probably want to read the transcript of their last earnings call then.
bought some ebay 26.5 puts (8/19) around .87 cents
still have my hlf puts and hoping ackman doesnt screw me and instead has a smoking gun that will make hlf higher ups resign
For your sake, and because I despise Ackman, I hope your HLF short crushes it.
I do think the longer this market goes without some kind of meaningful correction the more bullish it is longer term. I do think it is probable that we get those highs on QQQ.
Everybody saying traffic on Stars is way down but the stock keeps going up. Hoping for a horrible earnings report and maybe some bad news about the CEO, get under $10.
still have my hlf puts and hoping ackman doesnt screw me and instead has a smoking gun that will make hlf higher ups resign
The probability Ackman has something in reserve is so close to zero as to be irrelevant. Given how long he's been in the position, how many times he's "exposed" HLF, and how pissed his investors are over his mounting losses across the portfolio, there's no way he keeps his powder dry.
How about you tell me what you are referring to instead of this cryptic nonsense.
"You probably want to go read the library of congress"
Now that I know you haven't read it and you want to short it because someone told you traffic was down, I can only encourage you even more to read it and not have anyone summarize it for you.
Now that I know you haven't read it and you want to short it because someone told you traffic was down, I can only encourage you even more to read it and not have anyone summarize it for you.
Very summarizeable ratardi. Dickhead. I'll bet you haven't even read the entire library of congress yet, so you don't know what I'm trying to tell you right now.
PokerStars was already flat/shrinking and their growth is coming from casino/sportsbook etc. If PokerStars traffic was indeed down a lot this last quarter, that wouldn't necessarily make the stock crash if casino/sportsbook etc did well.
I suggest you read the transcript of their last 7 quarterly reports, their last 3 annual reports, the most recent 3 quarterly report transcripts of their closest 9 competitors and all 26 volumes of the The Warren Report.
Very summarizeable ratardi. Dickhead. I'll bet you haven't even read the entire library of congress yet, so you don't know what I'm trying to tell you right now.
PokerStars was already flat/shrinking and their growth is coming from casino/sportsbook etc. If PokerStars traffic was indeed down a lot this last quarter, that wouldn't necessarily make the stock crash if casino/sportsbook etc did well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhawkdown
I suggest you read the transcript of their last 7 quarterly reports, their last 3 annual reports, the most recent 3 quarterly report transcripts of their closest 9 competitors and all 26 volumes of the The Warren Report.
You are upset, but what you don't get is I'm doing you a huge favor, not the other way around. This is the same favor many people on here did for me fwiw. If you're going to kick and scream, you can click this. But I still think you're better off doing some work.
Spoiler:
For starters, you aren't going to just get Baazov news falling out of the sky. He gets a trial like everyone else. I don't know what the odds of an AYA buyout are, but I can promise you they're better than Baazov being sent to jail without a trial in Canada (and his trial dates are not even set yet). That was half your short thesis.
In terms of a cash game traffic slow down (the only traffic I'm aware of 3rd party sites tracking), a big chunk of that is seasonal (I cannot say how much). In the same Amaya transcript that takes minutes to read, the graph for quarterly active uniques shows a slump every single June like clockwork, it's seasonal. But since they've been pushing very hard for sit and go and tournament traffic, it's extremely unlikely that you can create much of a short thesis off how many people were playing cash games this past Q. What does seem to matter more is cross-platform Customers Registrations vs Quarterly Net Yields on their platform. And that's particularly true when there are now 3 ways for a person to spend their money on the platform. A move under $100 for the net yield would obviously be a disaster, or some drastic plunge in registrations.
Next, AYA did not guide at all for this Q to my knowledge (and did so because of a potential buyout scenario). They did highlight the various stages of operation or expansion into Russia, Italy, Spain, the UK, re-entry into Portugal, and sports betting expansion in time for the Euro. I'm not sure if they'll guide on that after this call, but that's what's going to move the needle. On the last call as you've now read (I hope), Poker revenue was down something like 11%, so I'm also not saying there isn't a trend there. However as you noted, sports betting and casino betting surged, and represent a significant opportunity for them. That's been without any ad sells, just cross selling. They won't start sinking money into ads till the Fall. That's around the same time the stand alone mobile casino platform should be kicking off. I won't bother being one of the perma-bulls and mention "ya but USA!". I've never considered another state coming online any time soon. Also unlike the AYA perma-bulls, I can't ignore the horrible debt situation they're in. It's a big issue obviously.
Now I don't claim to be even better than novice at auditing how a company like Amaya operates. And I'll be the first to admit that on several momo driven sectors (like oil), I've posted and traded purely based on momentum (recently actually when I was concerned about a move from $50 to $40). I've also done first level analysis on stuff and been putridly wrong, KMPH for example where I lost almost 50% before making some back. But what I've never done in at least the last year is hear someone say "traffic is down on a publicly available traffic tracker!", tack on "something something bad news for CEO!", and call that a reason to establish a position. And when someone in here has the good sense to let me know how ridiculous that is and where the information is to at least deepen my analysis, I've generally thanked them for the advice. Do the work. Even when someone like Ahnuld gives you a list of stocks you weren't familiar with, do the work. Email investor relations, listen to the calls, review the balance sheet. And if you still get it wrong, figure out why. I'm still in the process of figuring out why on a lot of trades. But at least I'm doing the work.
Wow spent all the time typing that up and missed RLYP
Pretty pumped, I've taken some lumps on this one. Really not sure where I want to sell now.
I plan to hold RLYP for another month or so just to see if another offer comes in. My buy list is also short right now and I'm not itching to buy something else with the proceeds.
I plan to hold RLYP for another month or so just to see if another offer comes in. My buy list is also short right now and I'm not itching to buy something else with the proceeds.
I'm trying really hard to be patient, as I've twice overtraded and promised I wouldn't do it a 3rd time.
Btw whoever mentioned Aphria over Canopy, you had that right. I'm still long Canopy.
