Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 489
I consider myself a good and experienced player (more than 3 million hands having 4 tabled several hours a day for 2 years back in 2006/07) but my bankroll limts me to micro stakes cash games (pref 6 max) and $7 SnGs. I've yet to be profitable on any site I've played for more than 3 months but I've had no problem tripling my initial deposits ($500-$600) and clearing all bonuses within 60 or 90 days on the 8 or 9 sites I've played. Then, inevitably, bad things start to happen and it's all I can do to stay even. Eventually, I bust losing big pots to what seems like very peculiar callers and miracles. I've pondered this problem long and hard and I'm wondering if it's my bet sizing.
I am very mindful of position problems and typically, I'm value betting (pot or near pot) hands like top pair, top kicker or better - I've learned never to slow play less than the stone cold nuts. Still, almost all of my losses are due to what looks to me like very bad callers with underpairs, bottom pair, gut shots, one over card, or runner runner draws. I'm getting 70-80%+ of my money in as a 70% or better favorite but can't seem to dodge bad beats. AA v any two other cards loses a buy-in 80% of the time after all my money goes in good.
You might say I just shouldn't play micro stakes with donks but I'm not bankrolled for higher and I can't seem to get ahead after the first 2-3 months on any given site. I cashed out of three sites after tripling up and never went back. Now, there's nowhere else to go.
Staying away from the debate about online poker being rigged, I'm pondering my bet sizing. I know that opponents using HM or HUD see me as tight agressive and I'm happy to have them believe that until I can set a trap, which regulary works except that I'll typically lose to the turn and/or river vs a 3 to 1, or worse, dog. Again, I don't want to debate online poker being rigged, I just want to explore if I'm doing anything wrong.
From yesterday - $25 6 max NL Zoom. $63 after 2 hours winning small pots (typical): UTG ($27) raises to $.75, I three bet $2.75 with AKs in the cutoff, BB ($23) and UTG call. Flop Kc7h2d and checked to me. I bet $6 (no draws), two callers. Turn is Ks. BB bets $7, UTG calls, I raise to cover both. BB folds, UTG calls. River is 10: UTG shows 10/10.
Similar betting with AA, KK, QQ or top pair, top kicker (no obvious draws on the flop) is usually run down by runner-runnner, rivered set (often an underpair to flop), or rivered two pair (typically flopped middle pair, bad kicker, no draw) after all the money goes in on the flop or turn.
Does anyone see a problem with my bet sizing? I can't see an obvious problem so I can't solve my opponents point of view and if they're using HM or HUD they should know I have it.
I'll happily take 100% losses where I get it in bad or miss draws if I can just get 70% of my 80% or better EV in other spots. I say this because I am rather tight and rarely get any significant amount in bad or chase overpriced draws - I see that as -EV gambling.
