Hey guys,
I’m playing on stars NL25 winning 4.5bb/100 over 70k hands.
I really wanna get better at this game, not really caring about profit in this moment.
I’m looking for a coach who can guide me and help me crushing limits.
I offer 50% of my profit over my current win rate. If someone is interested please let me know!!
GG
You should move up any time you are more than one bb / 100. Crushing is all in finding very weak players; Johnathan Little has done this and claims to teach it go to him. Moving up is better long term more dependent on skill of play rather than social situations; moving up is beyond books or apps mostly but brings in more money no matter who plays.
I would not recommend moving up with a wr of 1bb/100. With any observed win rate your true win rate will fall into a confidence interval and be some amount of bb/100 +/- of what your observed wr is and that will be a function of your std dev in bb/100 as well as your number of hands played for that observed wr, and whatever confidence interval % you want to use (75, 90, 95, 99, etc)
You could play a million hands and your true wr is still likely +/- 1-2 bb/100 in a 95% confidence interval given a standard deviation of 80-120, and that is literally with a million hands. Something more typical might be 100-200k hand sample which is going to have a +/- confidence interval of several bb/100. So you could have a 3-5bb/100 win rate over 100-200k hands and actually have a true win rate that was negative.
Also, if you did truly have such a low winrate, but "knew" it was indeed your true win rate somehow, then your required bank roll for any given stake to have a risk of ruin (RoR) <5% would have to be so high that it also just stops making sense to move up. For example, given a std dev of 100bb/100 which is fairly typical for 6max NLH, then to have a <5% RoR you'd need the following number of buy-ins for the following win rates:
While the method for calculating win rates, std dev, and overall RoR may have some issues with it, the overall trend would be the same regardless. So you can see quite easily how moving up with a 1bb/100 wr is probably not a good idea.
