WSOP Final Table odds per Bodog - who would you bet on? - Poker News

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WSOP Final Table odds per Bodog - who would you bet on?

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07-24-2008 , 06:26 PM

Rushstreet07

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 424

Quote:

Last Year's Final Table Should Serve as Lesson to Punters
Bodog has released betting odds for the final nine World Series of Poker main event players, and with a lack of any real superstar competitor among them, it’s no surprise that they directly reflect chip stacks.

According to Bodog, the chip leader of the “November Nine” with 26.4 million, Dennis Phillips, and second-place Ivan Demidov, with 23.9 million, are the favorites at 3-1 to win the $9.2 million top prize.

Scott Montgomery, with 19.3 million, is given odds of 4-1 to win. In February, he finished fifth in the World Poker Tour L.A. Poker Classic $10,000 championship event for $296,860, and the WSOP main event counts for his fourth cash at this year’s WSOP.

Peter Eastgate, who sits with the same amount of chips at Montgomery, is 11-2 to win it. The main event is Eastgate’s third major cash.

Both Ylon Schwartz and Darus Suharto also have about the same number of chips going into the final table (13 million), but Bodog is giving a nod to Schwartz, who’s getting 8-1 to win it. Suharto is getting slightly worse at 17-2. Bodog says the reason is that Schwartz is a veteran of the New York poker scene, while Suharto is an unknown. Schwartz also is a tournament poker veteran with more than 20 cashes.

The bottom three players, as far as chip stacks are concerned, are Chino Rheem (10.8 million), Craig Marquis (6 million) and Kelly Kim (2.9 million), and their odds of winning in Bodog’s mind reflects the stiff challenge they face on Nov. 9.

With a 40,000 chip ante and blinds at 150,000-300,000 when they return, those three fall right into the standardized definition of short-stacked. Rheem, one of the most succesful players of the final nine, is getting 19-2. Marquis is getting 10-1, and Kim is the longest shot of them all at 25-1.

But looking at last year’s final table and how it shook out should be a lesson to those thinking about throwing a few shekels on their favorite players. The blinds and antes for the final table then were at the same level that they will be in November.

Philip Hilm was the first player eliminated last year even though he started the table as the chip leader with 22 million. Jon Kalmar finished fifth, and he started the final table with the third-most chips (20 million).

Alexander Kravchenko started the day in last place with 6.5 million and finished fourth. And Jerry Yang, the man who won it all, started with 8.4 million in chips. Less than an hour into the final table, he became chip leader by eliminating Hilm.

Who would you bet on?

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news...e-wsop-players

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07-24-2008 , 06:43 PM

ravenfan1733

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 546

I'll take Eastgate at 11-2 for value.

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07-24-2008 , 06:47 PM

MPK

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 548

Scott M.

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07-24-2008 , 06:52 PM

durrrr

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 3,024

craig has 10.2m, and i think theres value there fwiw, 126m total chips, he has 8% of them, and a skill edge imo (esp if it gets hu). I have a ton of action on this already obv, and i still might bet some on him.

edit: eastgate looks like value too. (who is montgomery/ how does he have better odds than eastgate?)

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07-24-2008 , 07:01 PM

Rushstreet07

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 424

Quote:

Originally Posted by durrrr

Durr the article says Craig has 6 million. If he has 10.2 mill I def agree. I need to learn a lot more about these guys before I wager... It will be interesting to know who may play to move up vs play FTW and a lot of that will have something to do with their current financial circumstances etc. Also will be interesting to see who mentors each one.

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07-24-2008 , 07:12 PM

TruePoker ex-CEO

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,802

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenfan1733

I'll take Eastgate at 11-2 for value.

If you want value, we will be posting a FREE $50 Proposition Picks promotion next week, including both Event Winner and Last-Longer picks for free.

I expect Eastgate will go off at +525, for free.

TruePoker CEO

Last edited by TruePoker ex-CEO; 07-24-2008 at 07:26 PM.

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07-24-2008 , 07:17 PM

cavalucho

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 502

Bring the Russians!!!!!

Ivan Demidov FTW.

My choices are:

Ivan Demidov
Scott Montgomery
Peter Eastgate

Here are the seating positions and chip counts for the November Nine:

Seat 1
Dennis Phillips
$26,295,000
Seat 2
Craig Marquis
$10,210,000
Seat 3
Ylon Schwartz
$12,525,000
Seat 4
Scott Montgomery
$19,690,000
Seat 5
Darus Suharto
$12,520,000
Seat 6
David "Chino" Rheem
$10,230,000
Seat 7
Ivan Demidov
$24,400,000
Seat 8
Kelly Kim
$2,620,000
Seat 9
Peter Eastgate
$18,375,000

See you in November!

* Level: 33
* Blinds: 120,000/240,000
* Ante: 30,000
* Average Stack: $15,208,889
* Players Left: 9
* Tables Left: 1

Pokerlistings have some nice interviews with them:

http://www.pokerlistings.com/live-to...yer-interviews

Last edited by cavalucho; 07-24-2008 at 07:22 PM.

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07-24-2008 , 07:18 PM

ShannonShorr

grinder

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 629

I think there is a ton, ton, ton of value in betting the tough Canadian, Scott Montgomery at 4:1. He wins the poker tournament a lot more often than 1 out of 5 times.

SS

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07-24-2008 , 07:28 PM

HIV

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 4,547

ya i think phillips and demidov dont have a chance really....montgomery ftw, eastgate close 2nd

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07-24-2008 , 07:29 PM

#10

craigmarq

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,561

Did you guys see the hand he played vs paul snead?

C

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07-24-2008 , 07:40 PM

#11

Dranoel

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 902

I'm going for Craig.

When was the last time a Texan won the WSOP ME?

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07-24-2008 , 08:12 PM

#12

MauiPunter

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,232

Rheems gonna take this mo-fo down...

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07-24-2008 , 08:22 PM

#13

recondite7

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 1,971

Quote:

Originally Posted by HIV

ya i think phillips and demidov dont have a chance really....montgomery ftw, eastgate close 2nd

It's a donkament and they are the chip leaders. If they are even somewhat aggressive they should have a very good chance.

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07-25-2008 , 03:41 PM

#14

Clovis8

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,503

Quote:

Originally Posted by cavalucho

Philips was just on ESPN pokeredge and he said they are not drawing seats intil 5 minutes before play in November. So I dont think those are the seating.

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07-25-2008 , 03:50 PM

#15

PanchoStern

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,197

I'd bet on Phillips for the Russian.

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07-25-2008 , 04:13 PM

#16

jayhawks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 6,130

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clovis8

Philips was just on ESPN pokeredge and he said they are not drawing seats intil 5 minutes before play in November. So I dont think those are the seating.

Craig said the same thing.

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07-25-2008 , 04:43 PM

#17

StanfordAlum

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 30

No love for Ylon at 8:1?!? Sheets has nothing but praise for this guy.

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07-25-2008 , 04:51 PM

#18

Karak

ELIte

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 62,724

Is it against the rule for the Nov. 9 players to place any bets on the outcome of the final table? If not, then waiting could have some... interesting implications.

Quote

07-25-2008 , 05:03 PM

#19

bigbabyjesus

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,560

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShannonShorr

I think there is a ton, ton, ton of value in betting the tough Canadian, Scott Montgomery at 4:1. He wins the poker tournament a lot more often than 1 out of 5 times.

SS

From poker news:

"Scott Montgomery Wins a Huge Pot From Paul Snead

Paul Snead raised to 300,000 on the button and Scott Montgomery raised to 800,000 from the big blind. The flop came {J-Diamonds} {3-Hearts} {10-Diamonds}, Montgomery bet 1.5 million and Snead raised to 3 million. Montgomery then shoved all in for 1.76 million more and put Snead to a decision.

One he took a long, long time thinking over. He tanked for over 5 minutes, standing up from the table, pacing a bit back and forth, trying to decide what to do. Eventually Tiffany Michelle called the clock on him, and Snead used up all but one second of his time before deciding...to call.

Montgomery reached up and pulled his hat down to cover his face. "I got him, I got him!!" Snead said in triumph, and indeed his {J-Hearts} {7-Hearts} were ahead of Scott's {A-Spades} {4-Diamonds}. The {8-Hearts} on the turn was a good card for Snead, as it gave him a flush draw that removed the {A-Hearts} from Montgomery's meager list of outs.

But on the river...Montgomery incredibly spiked the {A-Diamonds}. The crowd gathered around the rail gasped in disbelief at that card and Montgomery picked up a pot worth over 11 million chips."

In another thread craigmarq verified that the action/chip counts were correct.

I hope you're going to give Scott some coaching.

Quote

07-25-2008 , 05:38 PM

#20

gobbomom

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 7,263

Craig FTW, all the way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

07-25-2008 , 05:52 PM

#21

ofishstix

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 6,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbomom

Craig FTW, all the way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

word

Quote

07-25-2008 , 07:57 PM

#22

patstap

adept

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 759

My local home game is going to have a blind drawing. The price you pay for the player you draw, will be determined by their chip stack.

If you draw the chip leader, your contribution to the pool will be $263. If you draw the short stack it only costs you $26.

Dennis Phillips $263.00
Ivan Demidov $244.00
Scott Montgomery $197.00
Peter Eastgate $184.00
Ylon Schwartz $125.00
Darus Suharto $125.00
David "Chino" Rheem $102.00
Craig Marquis $102.00
Kelly Kim $26.00

Total in pool: $1368.00

1st Place gets $685
2nd Place gets $410
3rd Place gets $273

I'm hoping I draw Phillips or Marquis

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07-25-2008 , 09:18 PM

#23

pushy26

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 659

Can we get it straight; does Craig Marquis have 6 million or 10.2 million?
I would back him at the right price, the hand where he owned Cantu with AQ was one of the highlights of the tourney for me.

Quote

07-25-2008 , 09:58 PM

#24

BenTurpen

banned

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 625

Montgomery has been on a pretty good run since the LAPC. Check his stats. He may have played the one hand against Snead ****ty, but I don't think he is getting enough credit going into this final.

Quote

07-25-2008 , 10:58 PM

#25

apefish

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 14,618

I thought craig said in chat at tilt yesterday he had either 30 or 40ish blinds. but I wasn't paying close attention to the convo really. just saw him in red and went to have a look.

Last edited by apefish; 07-25-2008 at 11:04 PM.

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