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Originally Posted by bhoylegend
150,000 players online. Are they all real money players?
No.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFan
In Baazov-speak consumers are people that 'consume' technology gaming products. Consumers always pay money for a product they consume.
Not going to wade too far into this one, but I believe Baazov was trying to make a point (that has since been sort of abandoned) that the player base could be thought of as more than just a collection of poker players / gamblers due to the sheer size.
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Originally Posted by Benjola
Anyone checked the claim that Lederer and Ferguson are co-owners of Amaya?
All of Amaya's formation docs, etc are available via SEDAR.
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Originally Posted by Monorail
Can you describe the process (even though it doesn't matter much I suppose, I'm just curious): so you press a button to indicate you want to ask a Q on the call, and then what happens? Do you talk to an operator who takes your info? And then...what, he/she tells you that you'll be put in the queue and to wait your turn, and then you just wait while other analysts get put on, and then Baazov says 'time's up, thanks for all the questions!' and then the call ends?
What have been the questions you intended on asking if you were allowed to get through?
Yup, that's it, more or less.
We had a lot of questions about KPIs, their FX adjustments, how they plan to double poker, product roadmaps, cross-sell numbers. Nothing smoking gun.
Again, would stress that it is not unusual for a company to present the best face possible on these calls. It's a show.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monorail
Might I ask you to expand on this a little bit, as I know you are well-informed. Why was it "obvious" to you that they were going to miss? As you know, they blamed the lion's share of the earnings miss on FX issues. But you seem to be basing your statement that the impending miss was "obvious" on something more objective and observable than murky FX issues. So what was your "obvious" assessment based on? Simply observing traffic #'s? The debt+interest repayments vs. their projected top-line revenue? Do you think their FX explanation is just a made-up pretext?
Sorry, missed this one.
Yeah, it really wasn't more than that. We have models for casino, poker, and sport revenue. Obviously poker is the lion's share. The model isn't that complex and there's relatively good data available about various traffic (cash, MTT, etc) at Stars, and the revenue (rake) is relatively fixed, plus we got a look at a couple years of Stars' books thanks to the acquisition.
So we looked at our models early in 2015 and lined them up against guidance, we said something like "this isn't happening unless (some combination of) poker grows OR casino just takes off like wildfire OR sport takes off like wildfire."
We didn't believe poker was growing. The early returns from casino in 2014 in ring-fenced and on FTP were encouraging, but didn't suggest the money would just come rolling in. And sport is an incredibly challenging vertical even if you have a robust platform, which Stars didn't.
After the first Q they needed huge numbers from poker to make guidance. After the 2nd Q they still weren't revising even though sport was immaterial, casino was off to a solid start but definitely handicapped by a minimal product and lack of external marketing support, and poker was looking challenging (at best).
I think the FX adjustments are part of a general pattern of presenting numbers in unnecessarily complex contexts.
I don't think it's damming or a smoking gun, but it makes it harder to take things at face value.
Again, this is not unique to Amaya.