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Originally Posted by TheFunBegins
Does anyone have any solid numbers for the first 2 weeks in Jan compared to last year?
http://www.pokerscout.com/ Running 7 day average sitting at 17,500 cash players. That has been the average since about when the strike ended. Prior to that for the first 7 days of Jan it was sitting at 16,500.
http://www.pokerupdate.com/news/indu...anuary-1-2015/
Turns out I remembered it as being 20k running average but it was actually 19k, for an 8% yoy decline. Not sure how reliable that article is but it wouldn't be hard for someone with access to Pokerscout historical data to verify it.
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Am I correct in assuming that the strike and changes to the VIP club did nothing in regards to Pokerstars traffic so far this year?
No, prior to the strike ending the running 7 day average was at 16.5K, a 13% yoy decline.
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I mean ya, there is going to be a slight decline in year over year traffic but that's to be expected since it's happened several years in a row and it had nothing to do with the VIP changes.
So are regs still playing just like before?
The yoy decline is not only (stupidly) unexpected, Amaya's corporate strategy heavily leans on projections of
poker growth. They are spending real cash on marketing, new poker product rollouts, and other efforts to grow poker revenues, with the expectation of seeing decent returns on those investments. So far, unsurprisingly, the opposite is happening.
The 13% strike period yoy decline is fairly ominous. A lot of regs right now will be forced to quit in the next 6 months, they just don't know it yet. Lots of people still seem not to fully grasp how sensitive this company is to the slightest kink in their plans, even a sustained 15% traffic decline would be borderline disastrous. If Amaya experiences a 15-30% permanent drop off in poker revenues they will absolutely have to make up for it with their casino and sports offerings. So far they've done a remarkable job of expanding their casino business, imo largely by expanding the casino market as a whole through monetization of their player base. But I suspect that growth from both sports betting and casino will hit a wall as soon as the organic growth from tapping truly new sources of profits, customers who probably weren't already betting with their competitors, wanes giving way to growth caused by directly stealing their competitors market share.
So far they've been tapping a gusher with a 10 foot drill. When that dries up they'll be looking at hydro fracking 2 mile deep shale stone.