Phil Ivey wins 7.3m GBP in London, casino refuses to pay. Ivey sues. Loses Case. Appeals. Loses - Page 17 - Poker News

The 7 hours bit is irrelevant. What happened was he started with x and left with y. The probability of Ivey playing puntobanco with 10 bets and leaving with 80 is about 4.5%.

We're in agreement. My point was some are doing the maths in the sense 'what's the chance he can survive 7 hours and finish up 50 bets' (highly improbable) and not 'what's the chance of winning 50 bets' (not improbable)

10-09-2012 , 06:15 AM

#402

Bubbleblower

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 696

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

Completely wrong

LOL, try 50 coinflips then.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 0mar Comin

grunching

what are the odds of Ivey's win if he was betting 150k per hand? And is 150k per hand the maximum he could bet?

If he played 50 hands per hour 0.00000003%.
Maximum he could bet was initially 50K and later increased to 150K.

Last edited by Bubbleblower; 10-09-2012 at 06:29 AM.

10-09-2012 , 06:21 AM

#403

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by raidalot

Its not irrelevant in the sense that achieving this in 100 hands would be a lot less likely than in 1000 hands.

Ivey won a certain amount over a certain period. He could have won more or won less or lost. He could have played 3 hours or ten hours.

Calculating the probability of what actually happened and in what time frame after the fact is completely meaningless.

He started with £1m he left £8.3m. The only relevant calculation is the likelyhood of that occuring.

Last edited by davmcg; 10-09-2012 at 06:36 AM. Reason: clarity???

10-09-2012 , 06:25 AM

#404

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbleblower

LOL, try 50 coinflips then.

I don't need to, I know the maths.

10-09-2012 , 06:28 AM

#405

The Detonator

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,017

If Ivey plays baccarat long enough this outcome is a near 100% certainty

And it's not like this is his first time

10-09-2012 , 06:37 AM

#406

UCONN

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 588

Quote:

Originally Posted by HundredsOfStuff

I don't know how to play baccarat, but can someone explain to me why you can't count cards if the top two bolded statements are true?

You can. It's just that the general consensus is the edges tend to be small and few and far between (with some possible rare notable exceptions to small but still very few and far between).

Also, if he means they deal every single card by dealing the entire shoe I've never seen that. They deal a big percentage of it but obviously not every card.

10-09-2012 , 06:40 AM

#407

Nomboo

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 109

Shady Brits, pay the man

10-09-2012 , 06:42 AM

#408

0mar Comin

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 794

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

He started with £1m he left £8.3m. The only relevant calculation is the likelyhood of that occuring.

and that is 4.5%?

10-09-2012 , 06:42 AM

#409

raidalot

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,186

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

Just think what the odds must be of turning 10 bets into 80 bets in a zero sum game like coin tossing. They have to be 12.5% as otherwise it wouldn't be zero sum.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbleblower

Not if you only have a limited amount of bets available.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

Completely wrong

Its not "completely wrong". 12.5% is correct if the number of flips is not constrained. If the number is fixed at, say, 100, then the chances of getting to 80 bets are a fraction of the 12.5% you cite.

Last edited by raidalot; 10-09-2012 at 06:51 AM. Reason: 12.5%

10-09-2012 , 06:47 AM

#410

raidalot

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,186

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

Then you should qualify your 4.5% as follows:

"If Ivey decided that he would not risk more than £1m and would play until he either reached £7.3m or lost £1m, no matter how long that takes, then the chance that he hit £7.3m is 4.5%"

10-09-2012 , 06:49 AM

#411

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by raidalot

Its not "completely wrong". 12.5% is correct if the number of flips is not constrained. If the number is fixed at, say, 100

ok sorry to bubbleblower I misunderstood his statement

However the time constraint is simply not relevant to Ivey's achievement.

10-09-2012 , 07:16 AM

#412

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nomboo

Shady Brits, pay the man

malaysians actually own the company, perhaps they need some democracy

10-09-2012 , 08:06 AM

#413

ordinary_guy

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 115

�� How is this whole article good for the casino at all, goofs.

10-09-2012 , 08:20 AM

#414

BobbyP

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 17

I guess they have to check that soemthing shady didn't happen. I think they will check, find nothing and then payout

10-09-2012 , 09:28 AM

#415

Deuces McKracken

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 9,669

After reading this thread my attitude changed from pay the man to hows it feel like phil to have your money withheld for no good reason?

The casino is trying to investigate the woman to make a case that she is a cheat and her presence somehow legally negates the win. It's likely all about using the woman to get out of paying a big number but at the same time who really cares as it is some kind of perverted justice.

10-09-2012 , 12:16 PM

#416

timrud

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 229

The case isn't closed yet, they might just pay up yet.

10-09-2012 , 01:08 PM

#417

FishNChips1

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,774

sorry if this has alrdy been asked but has this actually been confirmed? is the source trustable?

10-09-2012 , 01:43 PM

#418

patriots

adept

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,141

years ago i went to a craps table with $150 and left with 40k ALL on the same roller..glad they didn't say the dice where loaded.wonder what the odds are of that?

10-09-2012 , 01:59 PM

#419

DeTrix

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 64

Quote:

Originally Posted by patriots

years ago i went to a craps table with $150 and left with 40k ALL on the same roller..glad they didn't say the dice where loaded.wonder what the odds are of that?

bout treefiddy

10-09-2012 , 02:02 PM

#420

Johnny Hughes

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,144

For the last fifty plus years that I know of, when the house does not pay off the chips, it is called, being "chip racked."

10-09-2012 , 02:18 PM

#421

Jigsaw

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by ironfalcon99

Just had 3 winning sessions at BJ and 3 losing sessions at Bacc.. explain wtf im doing wrong.

You're playing Baccarat.

10-09-2012 , 02:28 PM

#422

shpanko

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 13,924

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Hughes

For the last fifty plus years that I know of, when the house does not pay off the chips, it is called, being "chip racked."

Ok? Who cares?

10-09-2012 , 02:55 PM

#423

mrmixitup

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 557

I'm sure this has been mentioned already but Ivey didn't play a single hand, the woman (hooker) that was with him played every hand of Baccarat.

It's pretty common for Ivey to let other people bet for him. He'll take random people and let them roll for thousands on his dime when's he's on a downswing. I remember reading a story about a craps game where he let an old lady who was playing nickel slots roll for him while he had $100,000 on the table. She lost it in like two rolls. He hardly reacted at all.

10-09-2012 , 03:37 PM

#424

2bad4u

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 676

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmixitup

I'm sure this has been mentioned already but Ivey didn't play a single hand, the woman (hooker) that was with him played every hand of Baccarat.

How did I miss THIS!!! That puts a slant on things...

Spoiler:

10-09-2012 , 03:40 PM

#425

CardsNbooze

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,009

Read most of this thread, but not all of it.

I have been on big winning streaks before too, and the last thing you do is leave while you are still winning. I usually set some stoploss the more I win. I would bet that Ivey was up 9-10 million before his run ended and decided to stop playing after losing a bit back.

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