I don't know if OP is right or wrong in his forecasts about the games getting impossible to beat. I haven't racked up enough online hands to know if my rate is even real and I certainly have no way of gauging the speed of the demise of the profitability of online poker (although I would give more credence to winning player's perspective on the subject than an admitted loser like OP).

OP wants to make forecasts about the profitability of the game, which is actually a greater intellectual challenge than beating the game? If OP were one to make credible forecasts/predictions than he would be able to beat the game. But what I really want to say is that I sense OP is jealous. I don't think he is giving a heartfelt warning (though his prediction could be correct even if by accident) but rather trying to cause stress and worry to people who make a living playing online, probably because he is jealous of them.

The fact is other people can see their own bottom lines and can make decisions which are right for them. OP running around saying "your sky is falling, your sky is falling" is not something he is doing for online professionals, but something he is doing to make himself feel better. Just STFU and deposit OP.

Regarding the Johnny Moss quote: I think old Johnny was exaggerating a bit because I doubt Doyle or him would say their lives were/are sad. That being said, I do agree that finishing school is uber important.

I think this statement is being taken too literally by many in here. What I think he is saying is that a person who is driven and motivated enough to successufully beat online poker is the type of person who has the qualities to succeed in other professions....which is probably right to some degree.

It doesn't necessarily mean that person can walk straight out of online poker and pick up a job paying the same hourly...it more relates to their potential to do so.

As for online poker getting tougher as a large number of players are continually improving....yes I would agree with this but in my opinion it will always be profitable at lower stakes and the new fish won't give up like you say and as long as poker is popular there will always be new people giving it a crack. It's liek the worlds population - it's not steady or reducing, it's constantly increasing....and so will the influx of new poker players.

I only play sng's and MTT's and as players develop their game their natural desire is to move up and increase their hourly...but in reality for most it doesn't work out this way because the games are obviously tougher the higher you go.

For this reason, as frustrating as it is I'll probably just stay at lower stakes ($12) and try to beat it consistently because from $27 and up it is noticeably tougher imo.

Depending on how many regs have the same attitude as me (ie...just stay and beat low stakes) will determine how tough online poker is for fish and new players and I assume the number of players solidly beating higher levels will just continually diminish (and the winners winning rates will become more marginal) as the number of good players flooding these higher levels continually increases.

An interesting read, I guess the only counter is that there are different kinds of personalities and some fish don't think the same way. Some of them just want a gamble and some are truly deluded. I'm sure there are plenty of rational fish like OP who are fading away for the same reasons, and also irrational fish who simply go broke and can't afford to play or make up excuses to themselves about it being rigged or something when they really are quitting because they know they can't win. But there are others who just want the action or who will never realize they are bad at poker.

I also think the experience described in the OP is a main reason PLO is becoming more popular. A thinking person who is bad at poker feels very exposed in today's current NLHE games, and playing poorly isn't much fun in that environment for such a person. Playing PLO badly is a lot of fun!

Feel free to elaborate. I'm working on learning PLO.

OP, please stop tapping the 2+2 aquarium.

this is a good point. Most fish don't realise they are bad.

I played a 180man yesterday and busted a fish when I jammed J3 or something from the SB and busted his AK or whatever it was and he tore shreds off me in chat for the next hour. He followed me around at every table I was at and warned everybody that I shove ATC from the SB...LOOK OUT!.....called me a fkn pedophile and a whole bunch of things.

Anyway after an hour of this he realised I was doing ok in some of the tournaments and he railed me for next 5 hours (he wasn't even playing) and watched me jag a 2nd in a 5k guaranteed and 7th in another and by the end he was cheering me on all the way at the final tables.....and wanted to be my best buddy I think but he said he stuck around because he wanted to learn.

Anyway..not sure what the point of all that was but it was funny at the time.

I guess the point is - yes some fish are dumb and some aren't

FYP

This is very wrong. In real world careers people don't really make more money doing less work at all. Their pay raises often come with an increase in hours or responsibility. You also aren't factoring in the soul sucking aspect of real world jobs that shuts down most of the argument right there. People in real world careers don't work "less", most of them don't even have any retirement savings and never get ahead financially in their lives meaning they'll be working to their death bed (considering social security is about done with). A young successful online poker that has the means to manage his money well and save/invest it will be the one working far less. You apparently aren't factoring in the part that the good players who manage mney well aren't going to be playing their whole life, their objective is to make enough to invest and set themselves up financially at a very young age.

You also have a misconception about edges growing smaller year after year. If someoen is working on their game which they are supposed to be doing as part of being a pro each year, then their edge should be remaining consistent or getting bigger. You're also only factoring in NLHE. There are plenty of other softer games with big edges as well.

I guess if you're talking about the break even rakeback grinders or mediocore pros you'd have a very good point that I'd agree with. The reality though is that that intern is going to never in his life make what a good poker player can. Hell, a mediocore 2/4nl player grinding high volume online can make 300k+ in a year.

This is extreme fallacy. Please expand on where all these winning poker players can go easily make more than 3-500k+ in a year? I'm sure they'd be interested in knowing. Problem is you can't because it doesn't exist in the manner you suggest. If it does, then it certianly has barriers of entry that don't exist in online poker as well as a % chance of failure that's far higher.

I don't agree with the OP at all but this argument is just lol. One lucky sunday that nets you $300k... you're done with what exactly?

Fish will always be available. The player pool is not static. As disgusted fish leave the game for good, other fish enter the game. Each day, many thousands of potential poker players are born. Each day, a whole new crop of people turn gambling age. Endless supply of donks, degenerates, casual poker players, etc. from here to eternity.

Exactly.

GD post OP, made me think about things from a different angle, especially the things that fish don't enjoy the game, which I'd never really thought about. Not sure how this can be countered when u r trying to make money off of them though...

I don't think OP was directing this at players who make this much per year. I doubt most 'pro' players are making anywhere near this much per year

Kind of sad if that kind of money is your life goal in poker or a job. And your assumptions are so very wrong. You should listne to OP.

[QUOTE=robfulop;17487360] You're missing One Big Thing:

It's just as hard to stay on Top...
As it is to reach the Top.

Even if you got that Big Break...
The pressure and competition and troubles...
Are enormous at any Elite Level.

That's why people with million dollar businesses are under more stress than before they made it "big"... that's why Rock Stars crack up when their 3rd album bombs... or Emmy winners endure rocky divorces as they fade back to obscurity... or an ex-Child Star OD's every freaking week... or name Poker Pros turns up Busto on 2+2 pretty much daily.

It doesn't matter if you "run good" at first...
Life is a marathon...
And Sharks will take it way from you if you suck.

The idea that someone lucks into a few million...
And then "retires" to a life of leisure...
Is purely an adolescent fantasy.

I never said one can make 3-500K+ in a year easily. It's hard work to build a career to such levels of earnings. But one thing is certain .. when and if you do build such a career .. and I'm 100 percent confident that a winning online pro has the discipline, drive, and smarts to do just that ... that such a career will net more and more income every year regardless of that career. Most all of my college pals are millionaires many times over ... and why shouldn't they be? They have worked hard applying themselves for over 20 years. Internships lead to fulltime jobs which lead to very specialized knowledge and contact bases which eventually lead to entrepreneurial possibilities that you can't even conceive of sitting in front of your computer grinding away looking for suckers. The world is sitting there waiting for disciplined, driven, smart people just like you .. regardless of the current state of the economy ... there is ALWAYS opportunity for smart people.

Now, truth be told it takes longer than one or two years to get to the "big money". And I guess that's the real problem here. So many people who play online poker are so compelled by the handful of major success stories floating around. Of how guys like Tom Dwan built a $10mm bankroll starting out with a $50 deposit. And how they have just as good a chance of going deep in the main event of the WSOP as Joe Cada.

And actually, for the most part, they are right. Probably every player on this forum has as good a chance as Tom Dwan had to build a mega million dollar bankroll. Of the millions of people who learned to play online poker over the past five years .... a few of them ran better than anybody else ... and this coupled with an inherent knack for the game propelled them into super bankroll orbit. A handful did indeed live the fairy tale .. and like so many fairy tales ... some do come true .. and in fact .. it can and might even happen to you.

But most likely, it won't. You probably won't find yourself on top of the charts .. and you probably won't win next years WSOP. Even if you are good enough, you most likely wont' get that lucky. But whoever does will become next year's superstar who gets on the cover of Card Player and everybody else will feel "heck, I'm as good as that guy, maybe next year it will be me". And so it goes.

But as far as "failure rate" in the "real world" .. my experience is that hard work and smarts are ALWAYS rewarded .. big time. It's true with 90 percent of my college pals .. if you are smart and work hard you get the gold ring. Maybe not at 21 ... like Joe Cada and Tom Dwan .. but again .. these are the guys who are off to the far far right of the "ran well" bell curve. There can only be a very few such people .. and there names are well known .. and you are very likely not going to be among them.

I'm just saying you have a lot more options than you realize

if all the regs are going to quit doesn't that mean the games will be awesome for the people who stay?

The post is flawed on so many levels and is essentially the ramblings of someone who

a) thought poker was a get rich quick scheme

b) realised he couldn't beat it

c) couldn't be bothered to learn how to beat it

I really am fed up of these threads in NVG nowadays.

[QUOTE=RedManPlus;17492457] Sure, if you want to be the next Bill Gates .. well rots o ruck to you. But if you want to be in the top 1% of the population ... well .. that means you want to be among the other 4,000,000 people who have yearly incomes of over $500K. And that's not NEARLY as stressful or competitive as wanting to be in the top 0.001 percent. My view .. there can only be one Bill Gates and it sure isn't gonna be me or my friends. My friend who owns a handful of car washes has no such dreams. He enjoys his jet, his homes, horses, and fleet of cars just fine. He's in the top .1% and that's just fine with him. He doesn't need to be at "the top". he doesn't even want to be in the top 5,000.

You seem like a bitter man, who wants to dampen the (however unlikely) hopes of others.

A little misunderstanding. Playing these tournaments 1500 times ain't luck, but hard work.
By luck, I meant going deep in your first 10 attempts.

Try 4-betting sometimes.

My apologies if I should be posting my views in a different forum. Since I so rarely post on 2+2 maybe you can point me toward a forum where it is appropriate to post different "views"? It seems from your comments that you would prefer somebody like myself with a different perspective on things to not to share any diverging thoughts here. Is this the case?

cliffs:
- if you're smart enough to beat online poker for any worthwhile sum of money, you're also smart enough to make a whole lot more money another way.

Decent post. Good points, but remember there are still a few of the 'other' type of fish. Rich businessmen or whatever that play every other day, do random stupid things, and have basically been losing since hand one. Not as many as there used to be, but the Euro sites have a few still going.

Been discussed before, but probably anyone who isn't already sleeping on wads of 2004-cash should leave some options open. Don't stress though - anyone of moderate intelligence and adaptability should be able to find a job anywhere.

Quality of NVG-rants is definitely improving.

Nice post robfulop.

There's one thing I don't agree with, the games dying. The skill in poker is relative so the games will never die for anyone who puts in time/effort. Phil Ivey can beat up on the Top .05% of poker players because he works harder than them. It's a fair assumption that many small-mid-high level grinders will make plenty of money every year regardless of the games because they work harder/smarter. This is the same in any competitive field.

Good posts OP. There is also definitely something to be said about making recreational players experience a better one.

It's something I learned from day one, a long time ago but unfortunately a lot of new winning players don't realize the importance of it. It's akin to hosting a seminar or an open house in real estate and treating your guests/ prospective buyers like ****.

The online sites also need to make an effort to make the game more fair and enjoyable. The better player will still win in the long run but software that targets, gives an advantage not gained through skill, gathers an enormous amount of data, and etc etc (I could go on and on) is killing the game, as far as it being a more enjoyable experience for recreational players.