Analogy: a similarity between like features of two things, on which a comparison may be based in order to make a complex point more readily understandable.

I will use the analogy of a roulette wheel to describe my experience of playing online poker because the probabilities are more straightforward and therefore easier to understand. Mathematical probabilities are immutable; they do not change. They are the basis of all games of chance and need to be fully understood if you are to be successful at those games.

Put simply: if a roulette ball falls on black 88 times out of 100 one time, that’s variance. If it falls on black 88 times out of 100 for a week straight, either the wheel needs to be repaired or there is a more serious problem.

When I used to play online poker I would defend it - in the chat box during play - against those who insisted the cards were not falling in a random manner. At the time, the fall of the cards appeared to be completely normal to me. But eventually there came numerous long, long stretches of play at the 2 online poker rooms I patronized which were clearly abnormal. And once I saw the proverbial roulette ball “fall on black 88 times out of a 100 for a week straight,” there was no going back for me. I knew from the depths of my soul there was a problem. I see that many others have had this experience because of the ongoing debate about the randomness of the deal in online poker rooms. The 2 + 2 poll shows that over 37% of respondents believe the deal is not fully random. Now think about that figure: 37% is not just a handful. It’s not the 5% or so you’d expect to find if something weren’t really going on. It’s a pretty sizable chunk of the sample group.

I believe there are two groups of people who defend the randomness of the deal in online poker forums. I used to be a member of the first group: people who never had the aforementioned "twilight zone" experience, and justifiably believe that all of us “rigtards” are out of their gourds. (I’m actually glad for those of you who are still a member of that group and hope you continue to do well playing online poker. I wish I hadn’t had the experience I did that drove me away. I really enjoyed playing and am in the process of deciding on another poker room in order to give it another try.) The second group is just working for a paycheck: defending the online poker rooms FOR the online poker rooms in order to keep their customer base robust. These folks may or may not believe there is a problem with online poker. They’re doing what they have to do to survive in an unforgiving world.

For the record, I do not believe this is happening to everyone. If it were, there would be no successful online poker players, and there are. Moreover, I have no idea whether there is a problem with the software or it is being done intentionally, as some say, in order to boost profits. I’m just a small potatoes, part time player. Who knows? Maybe both sites I played on eventually viewed me as being “in the way” and wanted to get rid of me because I wasn’t providing them with enough profit. I honestly don’t know.

Lastly, I want to offer one piece of humble advice: if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and waddles like a duck: IT’S A DUCK! If you see anomalies that defy the odds of rational variance over an extended period of time at online games of chance, it is not variance. And most of us know it when we see it, even if it is very difficult to believe, as it was for me in the beginning. So please do what I did, if it ever becomes obvious to you that something seems fishy at the site you’re playing on. Pull your money out while you’re still ahead and try to find a poker room where the deal appears to be truly random over the long haul. (This is the last I will say on the subject. Good luck all! I’m going back to my life).

thanks for sharing op. i dont think anyone has ever thought of any of the points you have made before ever.

didn't read but I'm 94.57% sure this is a poker is rogged post.

It would be nice if bad players would just realize that they are bad players. I guess all the evidence showing that the deal is fair is just not enough to make them see reality. It's just easier on the ego to say the site is rigged.

THIS

unbelievable how stupid people can be. what a clueless rant about nothing but justifications in his head about the reasons why he lost that are all not because he's a bad player. of course no facts and definitely doesn't want to talk about it further. whatever works for you buddy, on behalf of the poker community we are sad to see you go, come again anytime.

confirmed rigged
ty.

ya really how can it be rigged yet people make livings off online poker? Obviously know something you don't, it's like anything else maybe you suck and in order to good you practice?

[ ] sample size

good point except you have no idea what an anomaly would look like or what a sufficient sample is.

edit: also, you dont understand the concept of variance. wtf is rational variance. have you ever seen irrational variance?

edit 2: wow i just read the whole post and i regret having responded intelligently to it.

tl:dr, but I'm sure it was a...

My human perception tells me you're an idiot

it's rigged until u learn how take a lot of pots down without showdown, then it becomes rigged to your opponents.

I wish someone would just log 1 mil hands of B&M poker and compare to 1 mil hands of online poker...and then STFU when they find out it's not rigged.

Although, I would love to find out the deal is rigged, because that would mean I should be making more money than I already do!

No it wouldn't DUCY

Your condescending lecture should embarrass you. You have a nice ability to put together literate sentences and paragraphs that replace substance with nice sounding rhetoric catering to the ignorant. How about posting your own hand statistics that led you to your conclusions, and let some folks who know something about math and variance have a look at them.


If would help if you actually understood math and variance before making these comparisons in a lecturing tone like you actually know what you are talking about. There haven't been enough roulette spins in the history of the world for this to be likely to have ever happened randomly, even one time. I won't confuse you with the math.

It's clear you don't know what abnormal means in poker.


It's a self-selected group of rigtards who feel the need to post their theories in a "poker is rigged" thread. The other 400,000 members of 2+2 who didn't vote, would likely make the percentage tiny.


That isn't the answer to your problems, your "human perception" is going to give you same illusions until you learn something about poker and probabilities and variance.

Very very few people know it when they see it (if any). That's why they track their history and analyse it objectively, because human perception is basically incapable of recognizing randomness. You put that in your title and didn't even discuss selective memory and false pattern recognition, which are well known perception issues. And that's aside from the lack of understanding of what variance means in poker.

In before merge.

That long ass post and not a single piece of actual statistical evidence.

let me guess. You crush your .25/.50 home game and don't understand why you got bitch slapped online? this is just another whine thread by a losing player. It gets tiresome wading through this crap on a regular basis.

OP would you take a bet that when presented with 2 sets of 10,000 hold'em hands that you could tell which set was created by shuffling a decks of cards and which was created by a person scripting the hands? What do you think your odds are at selecting the set of hands created with a shuffled deck?

That is just over a sample of 10,000 hands btw. Many people have used computers to analyze the cards dealt at these sites over much much larger samples. Do you see the issue with not presenting any data?

OP even though i wasted 5 min of my life reading ur rant, heres some not so good advice. Instead of focusing on things u can't control (the random/not randomness of the deal), focus on things u can control. In BBV OldJude posted his poker graph and his non-showdown winnings were phenomenal.

If u get players to fold, it doesn't matter if they would spike their one-outer to hit their quads while the cardroom gods chuckle over with laughter at ur demise. Fold Equity FTW!!!!!!!!!!!

He already says he knows it when he sees it. Looks like a duck, so obv he is 100% to get it right imo.

Gordias - I noticed you putting in a subtle plug for your new poker site in another thread:

"To my knowledge, the most cogent description of what so many of us are experiencing at certain online poker rooms can be found at integritypoker.com. "

It's another RealDeal poker all over again.

Post some data OP.

complex?

not complex


bored

OP i want some of that heroin u be doing