By the way, I think the biggest fail of this FT was delivered by Shulman.

He opens for 4x or more.
He 3bet/folds for 1/3 of his stack. This is terrible, but if we look at the villain (Saout) and at his hand (he told he had AK, but this is yet to be confirmed) this is simply unbelievable.
He also supposedly folded 9s to a push from Ivey, who had something like 10-12BBs.

Show me your calculations to prove this.

Saout's calling range has Cada crushed. To show it is chip+ev you'd have to show Saout folding a large percentage of the time, which given it is 3-handed and his perception of Cada, he generally won't fold any pocket pair or two high cards.

Also note that even if you show it is chip+ev, it might end up being tournament -ev because Cada's line vastly increases his chances of busting in 3rd, and even if the best happens (Saout calls and Cada wins the hand, as happened), it still does not make him the overwhelming chip leader.

I would make this play with 77+ because of the chance that you have Saout crushed when he calls with a smaller pair.

With 22,33,44 - I think you'd be hard pressed to show Cada's line as correct, given the tournament sitaution.

This was one of the best played final tables and one of the strongest final tables in history where the best play was rewarded with bustouts and the worst play rewarded with tons of chips, money, and ultimately the bracelet. Sad.

This.

I don't know how anyone didn't enjoy this final table. Even tho I was gutted when Akenhead and Ivey were knocked out, it still managed to be insanely entertaining.

This.

Sorry, this took a while.

Blinds 500K/1M/150K
Ok, so Moon folds, Cada opens for 2.55M from the SB and Saout 3bets for 7.3M from the BB.
Pot is 10.300.000, and Cada shoves for his remaining 36.525.000.
Saout has 31.775.000 to call.

Now we have to infer some ranges: I think Saout 3bets like 25% of hands and calls with 77+, AT+ which is 8.4% of hands and 33.6% of 25%.
This seems loose, but Cada is extremely LAG and we are BvB.

If Saout folds, Cada picks 10.300.000.
If he calls, Cada's equity is 37%.

0.664*(10.300.000)+0.336[0.37*(31.775.000)-0.63*(36.525.000)]=
6.839.200-0.336*(11.254.000)=3.057.856.

We are +EV Sir

I think it is better to have a skilled player win than a bad player. If a random bad player wins and people think poker is a game of luck, an action junkie might give it a go but will quickly learn that he can get faster action playing table games or craps. It is by marketing poker as a "game of skill" that attracts most of the fish...because everyone believes they are or could be part of that "skilled" group. I would estimate 90% of poker players in a casino consider them good players who "should have an edge" in the game (and rationalize losses by speaking of variance, etc). Only about 15% of them probably actually do. The rest are the long-term losers who fund the games.

He never replies to anything. Just posts paranoid stuff in poetic form then moves on. Tilts the **** out of me obviously.

I think Saout's 3-bet pct is tighter (about 20%) and his calling range is a bit wider than you suppose.

I don't want to be a douchebag, but now you have the model and can plug in the numbers to check yourself if you doubt shoving is +EV under your assumtions

Suppose we make it a more realistic scenario, in which Saout calls 60% of the time, folds 40% of the time, and Cada has 40% equity when called. Your calculation comes out to -1.4 million (if I have done it correctly).

Then there is tournament ev, something that your calculation does not take account of. For reasons stated above, a more volatile line (i.e. increasing the chance of busting in 3rd with a much weaker player at the table) is going to decrease tournament ev significantly, so much so, that your chip ev will have to be huge to compensate for that.

Even given your (I think, erroneous) assumptions about 3-bet and calling range here, I think this is a clear losing play in this situation. Using my assumptions, it is clearly a terrible play.

I didn't read the whole thread and maybe somebody has already said this......but, I was thinking, what if you took Cada, gave him a revolver with 5bullets and one empty chamber, had him spin the barrel, point it at his temple, pull the trigger and repeat 3 or 4 times, would he do it for 8.5 million dollars? That's kinda what he was doing set mining for his tournament life yesterday.

I know it's a goofy analogy but that's the image that popped into my mind when I was listening to the FT.

BTW, I really liked the commentary from Maven, Gobbo, ZJustin, even Hellmuth and Annie were OK. I thought it was cool to get a little more insight than "he's got a pair of wired sevens" with a hillbilly accent.

And I was ecstatic when DoucheBegs got eliminated.

Besides the obvious key pots where Cada was behind and got lucky (not to mention the AJ vs AK hand against Shulman when he didn't) I thought in between he played really well. The guy didn't have more than 20bbs for a while (similar to Ivey's stack size) but was still raising from early position consistently, and I give him credit for that. I'm too chicken and a nerd for position to flip it around like he did.

If I had to pick anyone who played the worse, it wouldn't be Moon or Cada. It would be Shulman first, Begs second - the 78 was probably the worst played hand of the final table to me, for even getting into the situation. Ivey's preflop calls and check folds oop really made me cringe.

I was rooting for Saout personally and I do think he was the best player at the table last night. I can't wait to see what he laid down against Buchman in the post flop raise war on a ten high board.

Why on earth would they start the heads up portion at 10pm PT? Why not something more sane like... noon? Or 5pm?

What about Saout's shove with 47 BBs with 88 over a standard 2.5x opening raise from Cada and Moon yet to act. Was that +EV? I'd be interested if someone would run the numbers. Keep in mind that Saout did this two hands in a row.

Also, was Cada's call there +EV against Saout's range? I don't think he had the odds to call in such a large pot against a range that only includes pocket pairs.

Thats why you guys are here and they are there.Too much critic imo.It looks like 99% of players here are better than Cada...obv grinding NL2 instead..

Tournament poker is a Joke!

The only reason to support it: to get players to try out a silly lottery form of poker, build a liking to it and then they can come and play real poker (cash games).

Can we have some type of petition to replace "ever" with "since Poker boom"?

Cada was the second best player at the table.
Cada played worse than French guy and Buchman. He was third overall. /thread

How is he cocky? Did you see him pump a single fist or high-5 his entourage during the ESPN coverage. He didn't say frigin boo during any bad beats or big pots.

Newsflash: The luck box always win the WSOP ME. You can't win the ME with out being being super frigin lucky.

No one has mentioned hand 276 yet other than you. They haven't finished fellating their new BFF Saout, because he raised with J2o from the HJ.

Thread title should be changed to most suckouts ever. It was pretty entertaining IMO, but I am starting to dislike the 5 month delay. Momentum and game flow is completely lost. They just nitted up. No better poker really. It's still a tournament.

Also don't forget hand 259 where Saout min3bet bluffs a dry flop vs Buchman's check/raise.

There should be a thread of critical analysis for the key hands. Hand 259 is actually pretty interesting.

Man you guys are smart, i sure hope none of you start playing the 100r every day or it would be unbeatable! Please don't... really... please...

This play by Buchman was worse than Kopp move on semifinal...

Who really cares about the TV broadcast on Tuesday after we already will know who won and everything that happened leading up to it? Like so many others here, I think this five month delay has turned out to be one big joke. Perhaps after this, the powers that be will rethink the whole process and allow the ME to end in July and not November.

It has somehow become anti-climatic to delay the final table for so long, and all the excitement of a great tournament has long since waned. I don't think it does any of the final table participants any good either. Too much time to think about things and over analyze the best strategy. I don't remember any previous final table with so much obvious poor play. It is almost fitting that it was rife with one bad beat after another. The WSOP will get a well deserved black eye for this travesty.

I think they had it partially right when you could at least watch the final table while it was being played. That made a lot more sense. There is absolutely no reason why that couldn't be done and still have the final table played after a one day delay, not five months. A pay-per-view broadcast at that time would certainly get a large audience. They would have had the previous ten days of play in the ME to promote the television coverage of the final table.

Bottom line, the present formula doesn't work. If they don't change it, I anticipate participation in future ME's to continue to fall off. What I see happening now is an attempt to make the WSOP a year long tournament, skipping around from one Harrah's owned property to another. Somehow they've cheapened the whole concept of the WSOP in the process. Corporate America at work!

Is it true that Harrah's did not add in the interest money from all the millions held out at the final table? If so that is criminal! It amounts to hundreds of thousands of dollars taken from the pockets of the final nine players. Can anyone spell LAWSUIT?

The interest on the winner's share alone would be in excess of 150K.