**** November High Stakes Thread **** - Page 855 - Poker News

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11-23-2009 , 05:47 PM

#21351

dragonystic

banned

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 5,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by uppie_

ITs just math that in a -ev game no matter how you bet its -ev. people get that mixed up in BJ and in poker because there are +EV spots where the more your able to bet the more money you win long term.

If i bet less when the count is bad and more when good I win.

Maybe i am wrong here and some of the math geeks on this Board can prove it. Just seems like DUrrrr is giving up EV in pots where Isidur makes a mistake and Tom Has to play perfect once he doubles.

the bolded part is correct...if youre playing with less money, and you have an edge, youre lowering the amount you can win.

but the next sentence makes no sense whatsoever...once he doubles, and stacks are normal...why does he have to play perfect, when isuldur wouldnt?

Quote

11-23-2009 , 05:47 PM

#21352

Jshuttlesworth

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,377

Quote:

Originally Posted by uppie_

Now change it to you have QQ vs AK suited and get called 4x by players that have you covered what are the odds your still in the tournament?

[ ] tournament

Quote

11-23-2009 , 05:49 PM

#21353

Brian J

TOTP Master

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 10,650

Well to be fair EV doesn't matter but when you are playing at the end of your roll you are effectively playing in a tournament while your opponent is playing a cash game.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 05:58 PM

#21354

Chimpancee that

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian J

Well to be fair EV doesn't matter but when you are playing at the end of your roll you are effectively playing in a tournament while your opponent is playing a cash game.

I like this.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 05:59 PM

#21355

BF_Sweden

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 31

Quote:

Originally Posted by uppie_

ITs just math that in a -ev game no matter how you bet its -ev. people get that mixed up in BJ and in poker because there are +EV spots where the more your able to bet the more money you win long term.

If i bet less when the count is bad and more when good I win.

Maybe i am wrong here and some of the math geeks on this Board can prove it. Just seems like DUrrrr is giving up EV in pots where Isidur makes a mistake and Tom Has to play perfect once he doubles.

If Isildur1 has 1.6 millions on the table and Durrrr has 100 000 and they do four flips, Durrrr will win 1.5 millions one time of sixteen (there is your 6.25 %) fourflipssessions, and Isildur1 will win 100 000 fifthteen times.

16-1
15-2
13-4
9-8
1-16

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:01 PM

#21356

uppie_

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jshuttlesworth

[ ] tournament

Do you have an infinte bankroll, does Durrrr? if not its a massive tournament basically where the blinds do what you want them to do.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:05 PM

#21357

LOLonghorn

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 53

i just skimmed through the responses, but I believe the fundamental flaw a few people are making is mixing up actual values with percentages

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:07 PM

#21358

No.18

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 986

isildur sitting at two tables, one PLO one NL 100k at each.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:07 PM

#21359

uppie_

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by BF_Sweden

Yes this is true at the begining of there match, now Durrrr might not have enough to run the trials to b/e

It all really doesn't matter and i am probably way wrong and concide. what matters is Isildur1 is obviously right now able to beat durrrr, pretty consistantly and unless durrrr quits him or figures out what to change and adapt to him he will be busto. Man the Red Pro Jinx is something horrible bad.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:09 PM

#21360

BINGOBANGOFTP

adept

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 795

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity

The 2 guys do 2 flips. With durrrr in for 100k and isildur 200k,

Isildur wins both, Isi +200k.
Durrrrr wins first, Isildur wins second, Isi +100k
Isi wins first, Durrrr wins second, Isi +0 (breakeven)
Durrr wins both, Durrrr +300k.

Each scenario is equally likely in 50/50s, and if all they do is flip no one has an EV edge. However, Durrrr is more likely to be losing, but this is made up for by the times he wins being a larger win.

If you do the same thing with both in for 200k its pretty easy to see it's neutral ev there as well.

I I, I +400
D I, 0
I D, 0
D D, D+400

It's netural ev either way, but in the second scenario of flips, each players wins come in equal sizes, and are equally likely to happen.

The way this works, it appears that Durrrr's shortbuy strategy is making him lose, because he loses small amounts a larger percentage of the time, but it has no effect on his $EV, aside from tilt considerations.

Similarly, the martingale strategy of betsize doubling doesnt actually increase your EV playing blackjack, as you will end up with a lot of small wins, and one big loss to cancel it out.

thank you i was too high to say that in the pokercast thread when one of the hosts asked the q

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:09 PM

#21361

PelicanLaw

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 846

Quote:

Originally Posted by No.18

isildur sitting at two tables, one PLO one NL 100k at each.

Then what are you waiting for? Go sit down and play him scaredy cat.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:11 PM

#21362

dude1238

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,968

looks like Cole South quit isildur.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:21 PM

#21363

Laylow

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 190

Isildur has been running hot and you can chalk up a few of the sessions to variance. But many of the sessions Durrr played like garbage... he's not 7 million in the hole in 30 days because of "unlucky swings".

Please don't attempt to categorize it in scenarios as players on an equal playing field. Its not 40 coin flips, its poker. Doing so takes whatever skill aspect there is in the game out.

Last edited by Laylow; 11-23-2009 at 06:27 PM.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:22 PM

#21364

Nutcracker19

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,675

wait wat?

was there a $1.3M pot yesterday??

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:22 PM

#21365

No.18

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 986

Quote:

Originally Posted by PelicanLaw

Then what are you waiting for? Go sit down and play him scaredy cat.

i would but i'm a lil busy in my $20 tourney

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:23 PM

#21366

No.18

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 986

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutcracker19

wait wat?

was there a $1.3M pot yesterday??

yah between antonius and isildur1 in PLO

there are HH around maybe...post 1300-1350 in this thread,?

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:27 PM

#21367

kataruni ochiru

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 223

From HSDB Live:
Isildur1 +792K
Ivey -792K

Is this from yesterday or have they played today already?

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:28 PM

#21368

AndyM2033

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,936

When does these high stakes games normally take place? Would be good to watch.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:31 PM

#21369

Johnny Dazzle

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 180

18:32 +- 5min
Full Tilt time

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:31 PM

#21370

pompus22

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 226

every ***** night now.....it's nutz

correction...it's teh nutz

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:31 PM

#21371

aznth3on3

adept

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 742

how are ppl able to post graphs of durrrr and isildur1's sessions?

i thought we can no longer import observed hands on FTP?

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:32 PM

#21372

tkddad

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 21

Quote:

Originally Posted by kataruni ochiru

From HSDB Live:
Isildur1 +792K
Ivey -792K

Is this from yesterday or have they played today already?

I think these are from PLO only yesterday. With PLO/NLHE
combined, Ivey was up $40k.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:34 PM

#21373

Jshuttlesworth

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,377

Quote:

Originally Posted by uppie_

Do you have an infinte bankroll, does Durrrr? if not its a massive tournament basically where the blinds do what you want them to do.

Durrrr probably has an effectively infinite roll, as many people would jump to give him a few million to keep playing isildur, even as bad as it's gone. Assuming he stops playing like total ass of course.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 06:35 PM

#21374

Jshuttlesworth

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,377

I'm at school right now but I want to watch these games tonight. Are people sitting/ playing? Or is there any confirmation that a game is going to run in the next hour or so?