Newhouse b2b FT's or Ronnie Bardah's 5 straight ME cashes... - Poker News

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Newhouse b2b FT's or Ronnie Bardah's 5 straight ME cashes...

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07-15-2014 , 09:58 AM

chickengrizz

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 280

Which is the bigger accomplishment?! It's a tougher debate than you think!

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07-15-2014 , 10:03 AM

burnJa

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,630

Newhouse ainec

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07-15-2014 , 10:07 AM

Everytime

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 272

lol

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07-15-2014 , 10:09 AM

NickMPK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,735

It's Newhouse and it isn't really close.

Let's say the chance of a random player cashing is 1/10, and final tabling is 1/700. Let's also say that a very good player has double this chance in each case.

The chance of a very good player cashing 5 straight is 1/5^5=1/3,125.
The chance of a very good player final tabling 2 straight is 1/350^2=1/122,500.

Even if you just assume the purely random player, the chance of FTing 2 is row is 5 times harder than cashing 5 in a row.

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07-15-2014 , 10:10 AM

Clevername69

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 1,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by chickengrizz

Which is the bigger accomplishment?! It's a tougher debate than you think!

Newhouse and its not even close. Considering how soft the ME field is, it's easier to cash in than most tournaments. But the make the November 9 back to back that is extremely unlikely and probably will never happen again.

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07-15-2014 , 10:25 AM

evildeadalive

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,157

Ronnie Bardah has cashed for ~$440k over those 5 cashes. I'll take final tabling just once over that, even though it obv is impressive.

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07-15-2014 , 10:27 AM

TBadr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,669

newhouse ldo

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07-15-2014 , 10:35 AM

Alizona

temp-banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,022

They're both very lucky to accomplish their equally impressive feats.

Variance is a bitch, but apparently some can dance with her and hold their own. I wish I knew the secret to having good luck, or having the intuition to know the right play at all times, like calling with 55 and finding 44.

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07-15-2014 , 04:45 PM

Tommy_Tomich969

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,001

Fairly sure a lot of good players could cash five years straight if they were playing to just make the money.

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07-15-2014 , 04:47 PM

#10

unta8

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 2,209

great thread, the poker community deserves to know the truth

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07-15-2014 , 06:05 PM

#11

thethethe

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tommy_Tomich969

Fairly sure a lot of good players could cash five years straight if they were playing to just make the money.

paging Chainsaw...

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07-15-2014 , 07:39 PM

#12

Tommy_Tomich969

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,001

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethethe

paging Chainsaw...

I said good players, not nits....

But yeah ok, it would be possible for a very good player to do it with some good varience, and Bardah has proven it.

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07-15-2014 , 07:46 PM

#13

Wilbury Twist

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,408

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

The discussion really ends here. I assume you got the 1/10 and 1/700 based on the typical field size and the typical numbers who cash or make the final table. Bear in mind also that the field gets tougher as you get deeper into this tournament. So the player with 1/10 shot of cashing (which would be an "average" player) would have even worse than a 1/700 shot of reaching the FT because he/she faces in increasingly tougher field in Day 4, 5, 6, etc.

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07-15-2014 , 07:49 PM

#14

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Back to back final tables and not even remotely close, if I were to play the WSOPME every year for the rest of my life i'd probably have high single to low double digit chances of cashing 5 years in a row at some stage, the chance of making back to back final tables would be way, way under 1%

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07-15-2014 , 11:25 PM

#15

flight23

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 75

Dan Harrington making back to back main event final tables.

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07-15-2014 , 11:27 PM

#16

dalaxthedonk

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,974

Nice thread Ronnie

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07-15-2014 , 11:33 PM

#17

sabrejack

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 198

Newhouse by a Nosehouse

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07-15-2014 , 11:52 PM

#18

JCHAK

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,273

Newhouse for sure.

Here's one though, what are the odds of flopping two sets of deuces within 1/2 hr at the main event final two tables and getting three full streets of value on each hand? 3 streets of value...

Got to be like 289 billion to 1. Then he flops another set of 3's. He definitely is a good player but holy sht, what a time to run so pure. Godmode. wowza

Never played with him, but he seems like a nice guy and a very good player regardless of the rungood. Actually hope he ships it.

Last edited by JCHAK; 07-16-2014 at 12:07 AM.

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07-15-2014 , 11:54 PM

#19

chinamaniac

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,720

I think we will see someone smash Bardahs "record" at some point and we will see a lot more players get 5 in a row as well.

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07-16-2014 , 12:10 AM

#20

standupking

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 13

Newhouse for sure, hope he takes it down this year.

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07-16-2014 , 12:31 AM

#21

fatkid

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Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Bardah is a nit. Hizzle FO shoizzle.

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07-16-2014 , 02:12 AM

#22

SBlum2711

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,446

My head hurts trying to figure out why this thread even exists.

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07-16-2014 , 05:40 AM

#23

thethethe

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Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinamaniac

I think we will see someone smash Bardahs "record" at some point and we will see a lot more players get 5 in a row as well.

I'd be interested to see who, if anyone, is on 4 in a row.

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07-16-2014 , 11:26 AM

#24

beauvanlaanen

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 12,487

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tommy_Tomich969

Fairly sure a lot of good players could cash five years straight if they were playing to just make the money.

This is a just a stupid comment. People don't play to win this event until day 5 or 6. People play to survive for the first 3-4 days.

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07-16-2014 , 11:48 AM

#25

kfs

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,084

Newhouse and it's not even close obv. I still think Merson winning the $10k 6max and then immediately after winning the ME might be up there though.

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