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New Rules to Better Online Poker for REC players New Rules to Better Online Poker for REC players

06-05-2013 , 03:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bictor Vlom
And you would still be wrong.

Your first fallacy is the idea that in a pool of 100 players you have 50 fish and 50 sharks. I do not know why you keep repeating this. Every comment that I have heard and read from industry sources, places the long term winners at about 10% and losers at 90%

Here is the issue in poker when it comes to the REC versus the REG in simplest terms and what has been mentioned in prior posts, that you are not getting:


90% of players are RECs/fish/unskilled/losers= 90 players
10% of players are REGs/sharks skilled/winners= 10 players

90 RECs show up on the site and deposit $20,000 each for a pool of $1,800,000,. The REGS bum hunt and use all of their tools to crush the fish in their first few months of play. There is a significant disparity in the skill level between the average REC and the average REG. This is further magnified when the REGs carefully avoid playing each other and instead focus on isolating the fish for maximum EV. The fish lose half their rolls. The sharks win $90,000 each (on average for my example). Life is good for the regs. The games are soft, the fish are plentiful, and there is no end in sight. They are balling, living the life, and spending their money. But the fish aren’t happy. They find out about the HUDs, Sharkscopes, and bum hunting and suddenly leave, withdraw, and take their money with them. They go to a "REC friendly" site or quit altogether. Too much effort to grind. Retention rate is nil and new fish are reluctant to play.

Suddenly you are left with only 10 REGs and a small pool of money. The occassional fish trickles in, but nothing like the good ole days. The REGs also blew a significant amount of their 90k to live the baller life. They thought the good times would roll. So now, the REGs push around whats left of their rolls getting raped by the rake. This can go on for an extended time as the the disparity in skill level is much narrower. There are no edges. In fact, it could be negligible with players essentially equal in skill and ability for the time being and for the short term. 9 of them simply do not become fish overnight. They push money back and forth (variance being paramouint) getting crushed by the rake, as you have documented. No money in poker everyone's solid.

Who wins? Not the RECs, not the REGs, and not the site. If the disparity between the RECs and REGs was less dramatic you would still have the RECs losing, but it would be for less and it would take longer. Instead of losing 900k in 3 months, what if it was 450k over a year? Its disposable income to the REC. Its a living for the REGs, and the site is happy because the next year 90 more fish signup and deposit. The 90-10 rule kicks in. Some RECs may become sharks. Some sharks could die, quit, or their skills erode. At 90-10 its only 1 player anyway that makes it to shark status..The process repeats, the circle of life continues, and we cut to a fadeaway shot of Simba the Lion King looking over the Serenghetti.....................

You are absolutely correct and your description is not theoretical. I lived in Italy when online poker was legalized there.

The first month all you had to do was get online and you would make good sums of money. Then a steady decline in profitability set in. It never came to the point where there was no money to be made but to make any substantial profit after rake became very difficult.

After a year the players that remained were all very good. Every once in a while a new name would pop in, remain a week or two, attract a lot of action, lose lots of money and be gone, but the money they lost was divided among so many regs that it was never enough to be significant to any one person. It became pretty bleak and remains that way.
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06-05-2013 , 05:20 AM
What about a system where you are assigned 4 seats randomly and can't get new ones for 30 mins? Obviously, its another situation where site volume gets effected. They could probably increase the number to 6 or 8 or even. It still prevents pure bum hunting.
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06-05-2013 , 07:37 AM
It's called Zoom/Rush
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06-05-2013 , 07:54 AM
I like Lego05's arguments in this thread and I think he perfectly illustrates why the rake needs to be lowered in favour of the poker ecosystem. This would make recreational player's deposit last longer, make marginal losers winners (eg: keeping them in the games maintaining liquidity) and much more.
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06-05-2013 , 10:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gioco
You are absolutely correct and your description is not theoretical. I lived in Italy when online poker was legalized there.

The first month all you had to do was get online and you would make good sums of money. Then a steady decline in profitability set in. It never came to the point where there was no money to be made but to make any substantial profit after rake became very difficult.

After a year the players that remained were all very good. Every once in a while a new name would pop in, remain a week or two, attract a lot of action, lose lots of money and be gone, but the money they lost was divided among so many regs that it was never enough to be significant to any one person. It became pretty bleak and remains that way.
Yet most REGs don't see it. Or won't admit to it. But I think a new breed of operators will. Most casinos dont rape their whales in a few sessions. They do it over time. Its an art form to take someones money and have them come back for more. It takes finesse. I dont see them continuing with the current rules of play so that millions of potential customers will be disuaded from playing.
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06-05-2013 , 11:28 AM
What are arguments AGAINST a seating structure where players are automatically seated by game/stake choice and doing away with lists of tables? and lets say 20 hand minimum.
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06-05-2013 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
If the rake was cut in half, they would have a better chance of winning. The ones who were close and only small losers might just immediately become long term winners if the rake were suddenly cut in half.
RECs, especially newcomers, don't consider the long term. They see winnings (and losses) on a per session basis. If they win they see it as the result of superior play or luck. (If they lose it's because of luck -- they believe their play is always superior. ) Any long term effect of rake is going to go unnoticed.
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06-05-2013 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBritches
RECs, especially newcomers, don't consider the long term. They see winnings (and losses) on a per session basis. If they win they see it as the result of superior play or luck. (If they lose it's because of luck -- they believe their play is always superior. ) Any long term effect of rake is going to go unnoticed.
Its amazes me that you are still not understanding despite how many people have tried to explain it for you.
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06-05-2013 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bictor Vlom
And you would still be wrong.

Your first fallacy is the idea that in a pool of 100 players you have 50 fish and 50 sharks. I do not know why you keep repeating this. Every comment that I have heard and read from industry sources, places the long term winners at about 10% and losers at 90%.
Not going to get into it much .... but:

I'm pretty sure (could be wrong though) that his 50/50 approximation is BEFORE considering rake. Your 90/10 approximation is AFTER considering rake.

You both might be right ... I don't know.

That's what rake does.
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06-05-2013 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
Not going to get into it much .... but:

I'm pretty sure (could be wrong though) that his 50/50 approximation is BEFORE considering rake. Your 90/10 approximation is AFTER considering rake.

You both might be right ... I don't know.

That's what rake does.
Do you live in a world where there is no rake???
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06-05-2013 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
It seems to end up raking out a lot of the money. So in that sense yes it seems high to me. In the sense of industry standards it seems in line with everyone else.
Do you play poker at B&M casinos?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
I don't know where you are going with this. Obviously, one short session wouldn't mean much of anything. But assuming that over a significant sample size Ivey walks away with more money than he had when he started, then yes, that is the definition of showing a profit and beating the game.
You didn't answer my question. I didn't say anything about a significant sample size. Did Ivey show a profit and beat the game in this one event?
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06-05-2013 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Testi
Its amazes me that you are still not understanding despite how many people have tried to explain it for you.
So you think RECs and newcomers do consider rake when they play?
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06-05-2013 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBritches
So you think RECs and newcomers do consider rake when they play?
no you imbecile, they consider their results which, guess what, are influenced by rake
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06-05-2013 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBritches
So you think RECs and newcomers do consider rake when they play?
No. There is also no point in trying to change that.

Rake is the strongest influence for the player experience. Players don't know this and thinks its something else. But in the long run rake determines how many players win and winning is still the most important factor of people having fun or not.

What I am trying to show is that if you we to want to change the player experience, I don't believe it's possible without touching the rake.
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06-05-2013 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
Not going to get into it much .... but:

I'm pretty sure (could be wrong though) that his 50/50 approximation is BEFORE considering rake. Your 90/10 approximation is AFTER considering rake.

You both might be right ... I don't know.

That's what rake does.
+1
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06-05-2013 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knircky
You cannot determine this in one game, and not with one player. You need to look at all players.

If there are 100 players and only 1 wins over the long run than this game is unbeatable if there are 30 than the game is beatable if there are 50 than its easy to make a killing at this game.

You can also look at how much money is won and how much rake is paid and figure out how beatable the game is.

One player beats the game if his winrate is higher than the rake.

Not rocket science.
In other words I have to decide what 99 other players did before I can say that I took $100 to the table and left with $150 which made me a winner?
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06-05-2013 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knircky
What I am trying to show is that if you we to want to change the player experience, I don't believe it's possible without touching the rake.
I guess it's just a point-of-view problem then. I believe if you give players (especially RECs and newcomers) what they want they will turn out for it. Since they don't know the arcane facts about rake it isn't a consideration for them. All they know about rake is "I won this nice pot and the poker site raked 50¢ -- whoopee!"

OTOH running into MTers, HUDs and the like is a consideration for them -- every hand of every game.

Last edited by BigBritches; 06-05-2013 at 01:59 PM. Reason: Corrected typo: wrote 20¢, meant 50¢
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06-05-2013 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nimeni
no you imbecile, they consider their results which, guess what, are influenced by rake
But they don't know that because rake isn't a consideration for them.
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06-05-2013 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DucyInTheSky
Could you explain. Does the technology to eliminate not exist. Would you favor the Site HUD which was suggested earlier?




Would you agree with this?




What if the players themselves want to be segregated. Why can't they have the option to play people of equal or better skill?
The technology doesn't exist to stop HUDs. The HUD program doesn't even have to be running on the computer you're playing on. For instance you can be running your poker client in a virtual machine and then have your HUD just do screen scraping of the image from the virtual machine. There's no real way for them to detect that.

I don't think it's good to have totally anonymous players. It then makes it much easier for the site themselves to cheat the players. Players would not be able to analyze play over a long period of time to find suspicious patterns.

I can't imagine a scenario where players would want to play against more difficult opposition. I can definitely see scenarios where bad players want to play other bad players, but that's harmful to the better players who then are forced to play against better players because they aren't able to play with the bad players. I'm fine with people doing most anything as long as it doesn't hurt others. Player segregation hurts others.
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06-05-2013 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBritches
So you think RECs and newcomers do consider rake when they play?
I see once again, we're dealing with a vague definition of what a "REC" is. I still think it stands for recreational player, as a REC, I'll say that some of us know more about these things than you're giving us credit for. Because of that, I'd like to parse out your question a bit before answering it.

Newcomers: no
RECs: it depends

Right or wrong, for better or worse, I can honestly say that I didn't worry much about rake when I played online. I wasn't unaware of it, mind you, but I had just accepted it as the (literal) price of playing poker. When I go to my favorite watering hole, I know I'm paying twice as much for my Macallan neat than I would if I made it myself at home. I could extend this to food or coffee or oil changes, too -- to me, it's a mark-up that I was willing to pay for having the service rendered to me.

My most common online game was (and still would be) low-stakes SNGs. I won't get into why, but that's just what it was. With those games, the sites are pretty up front about rake -- even to a total beginner -- as they appear in the lobby as $10+1, $20+2 and so forth.

It didn't take long for me to notice the effects of rake, even if only qualitatively. I was fortunate enough to be mild winner in those games over the years. But looking back, given my overall ROI, I realize now that it would take me an average of 25 buy-ins worth of $20 STTs to generate $100 in net profit for myself. So the sites had pulled $50 and rubbed it on their tittays for every Benjamin that went to me.

Is that wrong? Exorbitant? Some of you seem to say yes, and looking back on it, it IS rather annoying to see what percentage of my earn went to Ray Bitar's lobster dinners. But I accepted it, for reasons I've already discussed.

Now that I'm stuck to live poker in California, I'm even more aware of rake. Tournament juice runs in the 20-25 percent range for lower buy-in events. And those who are familiar with my state's gaming laws know how ridiculous the rake is in a $1-3 NL game here. While I'll paid little mind to rake in those glorious days before the DOJ took the ball away, I am very aware of it now because its effect is more noticeable.

And again, I've been fortunate enough to come out ahead in the B&M era, both in cash and tourneys. I think about how far ahead of expectation I've had to run, or how many other "RECs" were winning players overall but came out in the red because of the rake, or how many losing players bowed out sooner than they otherwise would have had to -- well, suffice to say, I haven't set foot in one of my local card rooms in almost a full year.

So yes, some of us DO think about the rake, as it's the one thing that has kept me from playing more in the post-BF era.
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06-05-2013 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist
So yes, some of us DO think about the rake, as it's the one thing that has kept me from playing more in the post-BF era.
Unless I misread something, you only started thinking about rake post-BF when you learned B&M rake was twice as high. During the time you were an online REC you didn't think about it which proves the point I've tried to make. RECs don't think about rake, hence, it doesn't influence their playing decisions.
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06-05-2013 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POW
Imo there are 4 big problems that make online poker very REC-unfriendly games.
some good ideas........
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06-05-2013 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richas
Your Bayesian prior of 50/50 is way off. Even without rake I'd estimate that 20% would win 80% lose. The only justification for 50/50 would be a denial of skill as a factor and letting variance sort winners and losers over a short time period.

The rake obsession does have a basis. Lower rake helps all players but it mostly helps winning players. Whenever it is discussed it is winner is gaining 3bb/100 rake 2bb/100 or whatever. if you are losing 6bb/100 anyway the only thing the rake does is make the losses a bit bigger/quicker.

it is the reg that cares about rake not the rec. You can see this when the regs claim they pay hue amounts of it (from rec player deposits obv).

The rake reduces the number of winning players as that is the overhead but your idea that it takes us from 50/50 to just the elite few is a nonsense. The majority of poker players lose not because of rake but because they suck. A small number lose because their winnings don't beat the rake and another group make money by playing and beating the rake. The rake amount matters to the winners and potential winners far more than the losers, they are donating to site and regs the split matters little to them.
I tend to agree. The idea that you have a 50-50 split of winners and losers is just way off.
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06-05-2013 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knircky
No. There is also no point in trying to change that.

Rake is the strongest influence for the player experience. Players don't know this and thinks its something else. But in the long run rake determines how many players win and winning is still the most important factor of people having fun or not.

What I am trying to show is that if you we to want to change the player experience, I don't believe it's possible without touching the rake.
How would you touch the rake and how would it change the experience for the REG and REC
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06-05-2013 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMickHead
The technology doesn't exist to stop HUDs. The HUD program doesn't even have to be running on the computer you're playing on. For instance you can be running your poker client in a virtual machine and then have your HUD just do screen scraping of the image from the virtual machine. There's no real way for them to detect that.

Anyone else on this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMickHead
I don't think it's good to have totally anonymous players. It then makes it much easier for the site themselves to cheat the players. Players would not be able to analyze play over a long period of time to find suspicious patterns.

I dont follow you on this. How could the site cheat you? This would be legal and regulated poker. The regulators would still be able to review suspicious play when a complaint is filed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMickHead
I can't imagine a scenario where players would want to play against more difficult opposition.

Well several REGs made the point that players want to move up and play better players so that they can improve and get better. And segregation would "force" them to play other bad players. And deny them this right. Now you are saying the opposite.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMickHead
I can definitely see scenarios where bad players want to play other bad players, but that's harmful to the better players who then are forced to play against better players because they aren't able to play with the bad players.

I think your true motivations came out in this statement and I appreciate the honesty. REGs want to make money. Its easier and more profitable to bumhunt and play inferior players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrMickHead
I'm fine with people doing most anything as long as it doesn't hurt others. Player segregation hurts others.
No. It gives REC players freedom and options. REC players want the option to play players of their own skill level and move up when they are ready. You are denying them that opportunity.

Last edited by DucyInTheSky; 06-05-2013 at 03:11 PM.
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