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Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3

04-27-2011 , 03:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LT22
Checks are slow, UMW is working fine for now but is likely to go down like every other ewallet as more and more people use it (Neteller, ewalletxpress). The DOJ is going to request cashouts from these sites and figure out where they're coming from. I just hope if they use international processors they can avoid bank fraud/money laundering charges.
This is the key they are using international processors there for doj not gonna touch them cause there not gonna get the laundering charges and bank fraud and there is not 1 law on the books saying online poker is against any law there for DOJ has nothing on them!!!

Most people have no clue why this all went down!! This blog should help....http://www.dragthebar.com/poker-blog...jump-post-1263
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 03:47 AM
Bodog has no chance. The software limits you to a max of 4 tables, yet you need a quadcore with 4 GB because of the inefficient programming and memory leaks. Play for houts without restarting the client and it'll eat all your memory until it suddenly crashes.
It's also extremely bot-tolerant, they are considered to be their best customers so they just run 24/7 because they know Bodog doesn't care.
And I believe rake is higher than normal in several areas.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 03:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cotton Hill
The reason the DOJ didn't target them is because they were small enough to fly under the radar and not care about.

If they ever got large in the US market they'd eventually suffer the same fate.

Odds are better that poker will be fully legalized before any other sites grow to the size that Stars or FTP was.
It took the DOJ over 4 years to shutdown FTP/Stars. How much money do you think these sites raked in during that time period?

You might well be right on your last point, but that really depends on how quickly legalization moves forward. If it takes like 5 years plus, someone with the brains+balls is going to have decided that they want to become a billionaire and start the next Party/Stars/Tilt.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 04:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RNauta
Bodog has no chance. The software limits you to a max of 4 tables, yet you need a quadcore with 4 GB because of the inefficient programming and memory leaks. Play for houts without restarting the client and it'll eat all your memory until it suddenly crashes.
It's also extremely bot-tolerant, they are considered to be their best customers so they just run 24/7 because they know Bodog doesn't care.
And I believe rake is higher than normal in several areas.
100% on-point about their super ram intensive client. They use to be very bot-tolerant, but have straightened up a bit...still bots on the site, but if you report them action actually gets taken against them.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 06:11 AM
Merge especially has grown quickly. It wouldn't surprise me if they continue to grow over the next year or so. It will be interesting if they or Cake or Bodog pick up the advertising vacuum left by PS and FT.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 06:16 AM
I highly doubt that will happen. The networks will be very hesitant to accept advertising from any gambling site until legislation is passed.
If the networks do suck it up and allow it, Merge and Cake are unlikely to go crazy because of the affiliate structure. There are so many different sites all in business for themselves on the network. They won't put money together to advertise one specific site, or the network as a whole. The only way the network were to make a major push would be if it were to merge (no pun intended) into one singular operation and brand with equity ownership between the skin owners and go that way.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 06:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 413AceKing
I highly doubt that will happen. The networks will be very hesitant to accept advertising from any gambling site until legislation is passed.
If the networks do suck it up and allow it, Merge and Cake are unlikely to go crazy because of the affiliate structure. There are so many different sites all in business for themselves on the network. They won't put money together to advertise one specific site, or the network as a whole. The only way the network were to make a major push would be if it were to merge (no pun intended) into one singular operation and brand with equity ownership between the skin owners and go that way.
You are absolutely correct. No network with multiple skins has ever advertised heavily on TV. It's just not possible. Only Bodog could do it since they have no skins.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by propran
This is the key they are using international processors there for doj not gonna touch them cause there not gonna get the laundering charges and bank fraud and there is not 1 law on the books saying online poker is against any law there for DOJ has nothing on them!!!

Most people have no clue why this all went down!! This blog should help....http://www.dragthebar.com/poker-blog...jump-post-1263
That's a GREAT must-read article, ty for posting it.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 01:21 PM
I hear what the naysayers are saying, but this:



is Merge's 6-month graph from PokerScout (I extrapolated the orange part of the line because the current graph doesn't yet reflect today's 1,480-seven-day-average number of players statistic).

Perhaps they "merge" their affiliates and come up with a better name, grandfathering in their current affiliates, then using a non-affiliate model: advertising on websites, using sponsored pros, etc. for their new growth (isn't that what Pokerstars/Full Tilt did at first?). Perhaps their recent revenue bump frees up a LOT more $$$ for advertising which gets the steamroller moving even faster (don't you think Bluff, Card Player, Poker News and the others will be more than willing to make "deals" with the sites the American sites that are still around?). Sure, these newly propelled sites won't be making their own entertain-mercial poker shows any time soon, but neither did Stars/FT in their nascent beginnings.

Yes, the software is not great, but that can change quickly too. Merge's client is actually not that bad today (will someone please tell these sites to allow Avatar uploads?) My point is, this thing is already on a roll, it'll be interesting to see/predict where their trajectories peter out and why...anyone who looks at a graph like the one above and thinks these guys are going to slow down soon just doesn't like nature.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 01:24 PM
Merge revenue isn't up that much...everybody who is playing is getting 60-100+% RB with their current promotions
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LT22
Merge revenue isn't up that much...everybody who is playing is getting 60-100+% RB with their current promotions
You're right, but if this were likened to the "buildup" phase of a startup company, even a fledgling upstart firm might be pleased with a doubling of revenues in 6 months. These sites/networks may or may not realize the long term potential of what they've just been handed --- but I'm sure a light has gone off somewhere.

And think about it: each incremental player is now going to be lower cost to acquire...all these sites are already built/tested/working/profitable(?) with a low need for capital to keep things running smoothly for now. And the 60-100% rakeback will fall away one day to something more realistic (and hopefully still better than Americans are accustomed to) over time.

Last edited by Stone_Palace; 04-27-2011 at 01:44 PM.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak
I made the prediction that carbon (merge) would be the biggest site on the net in 2 years, and I'm sticking to it

(cake will be number 3 behind party because they don't allow huds and will lose out on all the hud bots/non thinking short stackers)

Stars will be 4th.

Just my guess, I could be wrong.
cake # 3, wat are you smoking son?
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-27-2011 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by roy_miami
Where was Full Tilt pre-UIGEA anyway? I honestly don't remember if they were already one of the bigger players or if they vaulted up to second from nowhere.
pretty sure they were a solid #3 for a while before UIGEA. i actually got on them before i got on Stars.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 04:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stone_Palace
endeavoring to take the money off a bit more often, just for safety's sake.
Aha. Therein lies the problem.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 04:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by propran
This is the key they are using international processors
Rubbish. Every processor wherever they are eventually needs to be connected to the player's bank (be it Instant Echeck or Credit Card). You can't operate completely offshore if you want to take deposits and send cashouts.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 04:29 AM
cake always has some juicy .5/1 plo games running
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 05:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DesperateHouswives
really? its been 5 years since the UIGEA. who's to say we wont wait another 50?
fyp
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 06:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RNauta
It's also extremely bot-tolerant, they are considered to be their best customers so they just run 24/7 because they know Bodog doesn't care.
You can be assured that bots are NOT welcome at bodog and they directly violate bodog's Player Agreement . The bodog security team works hard with both bot prevention and bot detection and if someone is found to be violating the rules, they will be dealt with accordingly, resulting in account closure and seizure of funds. Please send a message to CS if you think you have identified any bots at bodog poker.

Thank you,
Becky
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 07:54 AM
Do any of these sights/skins work with Macs like Pokerstars or Cerus did?

If they do I cannot seem to find them?

Kaz
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 08:06 AM
merge has some really nice 400-1knl games, running 24/7.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMightyKaz
Do any of these sights/skins work with Macs like Pokerstars or Cerus did?

If they do I cannot seem to find them?

Kaz
Carbon works with Mac, so I'd assume the whole Merge network does as well.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 09:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by roy_miami
If they are smart one of these sites should copy Stars software features, vip program and t&c. It was fine having their own niche to stay alive when they had to compete against stars but now they should just steal their business model. Actually lets just move to Costa Rica and start our own site. Pokers Star now accepting US customers...
was going to post this basically.

The first of the sites that are staying open to the US that actually gets good software and a good reward program is going to sweep up the entire market.

There are a lot sharks without a feeding pond at the moment. Make a move.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 10:40 AM
the average poker player is not going to put money on any of these sites after the DOJ just seized all of the money.

no foreign players are going to risk their bankrolls on these crappy sites either

those of you banking on cake and bodog actually running a good business haven't been paying attention for the past couple years
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by apology7
the average poker player is not going to put money on any of these sites after the DOJ just seized all of the money.
I heard a very similar thing post UIEGA.
Nature Abhors a Vacuum...View: Merge, Bodog and Cake have a shot at becoming the next Big 3 Quote
04-28-2011 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak
I heard a very similar thing post UIEGA.
And traffic took a big hit. For all the increased numbers we're seeing, it isn't a drop in the bucket to the numbers lost by the big 3.

Go play on a new, smaller site if you want. None of them seems nearly as trustworthy as Stars. You can't imagine your money is nearly as safe or that the game play is as protected. Didn't we feel even safer at Party, a publicly traded, totally legit business?

Cake - oh, we should have encrypted your hole cards? Our bad. We'll check to see if you've been cheated. (crickets) Please don't leave.
Our new software update doesn't work? Well, just go back to the old one. No foul, right?

When one of these sites just takes your money at a time of their choosing, don't be shocked. When one of these sites can't pay off when the DOJ comes after them, understand it was completely expected. I wonder what the odds are that all three of the new big three pay off when the time comes? Heck, at this point it looks like only 2 of 3 of the old Big Three are likely to pay off. If we're unlucky (I hope we're not) it will be 1 of 3.
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