Quote:
Originally Posted by kerr
If we assume Mike knows he’s beat, then he would know he’s drawing dead on the turn, so why would he not simply check-fold turn? He would also know if he shoves river he gets called, so why would he burn $280 needlessly?
Well, we don't know the technicalities of his cheating, if he is cheating. Maybe he's not always relayed information and wasn't told the hand until the river in this case. The way previous hands have played out preflop makes this unlikely, though.
I think a more reasonable and likely scenario is best answered by continuing down your line of questioning, actually: If he knows he is beat preflop, why not just open-muck the 88? Well, he can't. It's too obvious. So he raises it. And he's not gonna check fold 88 on a 994 flop. Sure, he could try to check down, but a reasonable line is to just betbet small and then give up rivers. His turn bet is really small, for example. Then he ends up making an unplanned boat on the river and suddenly he basically has the nuts (when he probably in his mind had planned to not put any more into the hand). So he check/calls, amazingly, and absolutely loses the minimum he can after getting himself into that spot.
A bit long by me, but I hope it doesn't read too rambly and makes sense. I think it's a very likely scenario to explain the hand.