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Old 10-02-2019, 01:29 PM   #1101
ItsabitFishy
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist View Post
I have seen a lot of the video evidence. and I may be the only one who thinks this, but I am not convinced that he is cheating.


You should take a full stream and go through every hand in it. That’s what does the convincing. Just going through individual hands won’t do it. Watching the whole stream even if you fast forward to only hands he is in and watch him look at his lap before soul reading the table will convince you.


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Old 10-02-2019, 01:30 PM   #1102
GamblinRick
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by kerr View Post
maybe the IRS need to audit his returns
THIS. Imagine if an IRS agent audited him. He almost certainly didn't claim the 250k so he would have to show who he had to split that money with. Boom. He also would then be subject to jail time for tax evasion.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:32 PM   #1103
Halo_P1
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Guys, there’s a Stones stream where Justin is commentating with Mike on one of his Godruns. Maybe we should rewatch his behavior during it to see any texting or other shady **** going on.

Edit: Wait, is Justin ever commentating when mike is on the table (I got confused with the interview video). I can see on their YT that he commentates regularly but can’t find the ones where Mike is also playing.

Last edited by Halo_P1; 10-02-2019 at 01:39 PM.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:32 PM   #1104
dankhank
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by samcx View Post
Gotta hand it to Mike, zero f*cks given by him at being outed. An avalanche of accusations coming his way and his only tweet all night was to challenge a guy to HU.

The man doesn't faze easily.
Considering the fact that he cheated so blatantly and that, all in all, this was a poorly done scheme (that should have been caught way way sooner, netting him way less money) that will harm his reputation forever, it doesn't seem like Postle has a full grasp on reality, much like the deities before him.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:33 PM   #1105
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

If he had someone on inside then it is unlikely other poker streams have cheating. Like only reason he got away with this is his man on inside was allegedly the director.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:34 PM   #1106
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by js84 View Post
Normally I don't enter myself into these sort of things, and I don't have any sort of social media to post this on, but this one bothered me. I have several friends that have played (and lost) on Stones in Postle games. I hadn't watched many Stones live streams before this - the few I watched were when a friend was playing. I had heard the jokes/rumors about Postle, but I always just brushed them off as he was just some whale/maniac/luck box. I had no idea how often he won big until this.

The chart below is work from me (2019) and a friend (who did the 2018 totals at the bottom). The bottom line?

+$253,300 in 277 hours of play, winning in 62/69 sessions. This was over roughly a year of streams (not sure exactly where they started in 2018).

https://ibb.co/kmVwv8t
fixed it to load properly


This does not include any mixed games, sit-n-gos, tournaments, etc. There is a possibility I missed a stream or two - if I did it was certainly not intentional.

How did we do this? I won't speak for my friend, but I think we used a similar strategy. Essentially I would open a stream, see if Postle was playing, and look for his earliest listed/visible chip stack. That is his buy-in column. From there, I would fast forward a few minutes at a time.

Any time Postle was in a hand, or his chip stack deviated more than a few hundred dollars, I would look to see why. Sometimes he would win pots. Sometimes he would lose. Sometimes he would add-on - these add-ons were the hardest part, as the camera didn't always show when the chip runner delivering the chips. The match-the-stack element of the game allowed the game to become big quickly. Looking for swings in chip stacks - either Postle's or another players - was reason to look deeper.

In some cases (like the 1/12/2019 game, the one Joey Ingram was livestreaming and commenting on last night) Postle has such a huge chip lead, it was easy to just skip ahead in the stream and watch his chip stack grow. He couldn't add-on (no need to, and he was the stack), and no one was attempting to match him. His chip stack would just keep climbing.

Some streams (like the one above) didn't take long for the reasons I mentioned above - maybe 15 minutes. Others took longer since he was up and down in chips, he added on, or his chip stack jumped but no obvious pot won was found. This was simply a task of looking for deviations in chip stacks and seeing if it was from winning/losing or from something else. After getting the hang of it a few streams in, the process was usually very quick.

Discrepancies: Is this 100% accurate? No, I know this isn't 100% correct. Am I confident it's 95% accurate? Yes. Many streams there was little doubt what was going on. He would buy-in for an amount, win some pots with no major loses, and his final streamed chip stack was recorded. Not much room for error in at least half of these streams, probably more like 2/3 of all streams.

Hours played: This is a rough guess, but I imagine it is still fairly accurate. Basically if the YouTube stream was 4:XX, I listed it as a 4 hour session. Stones has anywhere from 0-20 minute intro, as well as a several minute marbles outro. So a 4:05 stream is probably something like 3:30-3:45, while a 4:55 stream is more like 4:25-4:40. I figure this averaged out in the long run. If you want to give him the benefit of the doubt, add a half hour for each session, but I imagine 277 hours played is pretty close to reality.

Blind Structure: This may be off. I generally used whatever the stream listed. I don't think this is super important because the 1/2/3 (listed as 1/3) usually played more like a 5/5, plus the match-the-stack element of the game made most of them play big. Once I entered this I generally ignored it, so I imagine it's not 100%.

There are several sessions in which strange things happened with the chip stacks (some highlighted in yellow, I started doing this closer to the end of this project). Basically, something odd happened and I never knew 100% what was going on. This could be inconsistent chip counts on screen, money being added-on but not caught on stream, or something like that. A few cases, he would stack a player whose chip stack was listed at $1,000, but the stack on the table was clearly more by several hundred. In these cases, if I was unsure, I always made these out to be chip add-ons. I ALWAYS ERRED ON THE HIGH SIDE, the side that looks better for Postle. If anything, I think his total buy-ins are less than what I have listed. But if you want to give him more benefit of the doubt, add $10-15k to his buy-ins (as well as 30 hours to his play time).

Take this information however you want to. I'm just adding information for those out there looking, and I know people have asked/guessed to his winnings over the past year or so. I'll try to read and answer questions people have.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:39 PM   #1107
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist View Post
I have seen a lot of the video evidence. and I may be the only one who thinks this, but I am not convinced that he is cheating.
Ive seen the videos and Im now nearly 100% convinced he is cheating. Are you a recreational player? Almost every seasoned poker pro who has chimed in on this is convinced Postle is a cheat. Its usually the newer players who don’t have a good grasp of strategy who aren’t convinced.

Its like when I watch a chess game and a GM is convinced another player is using an engine to cheat because of the inhuman moves he makes. I could never catch this since I suck at chess and lack the understanding to recognize when someone is cheating but I will take the experts’ word for it.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:39 PM   #1108
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Cliffs on who the Justin dude is
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:40 PM   #1109
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Shout out to the guys for their work on this. Lots of time and effort to produce the session log and win rate.

What sinks him for me is how minimal his very few losses are. ONE session amounts to more than a 2 Buy In loss relative to stakes. And I only count one loss that is 2 BI, all others would be considered 1 BI. It’s impossible for a LAG with his VPIP to not sustain more losses at a high BI level given the limited amount of time he gets to play on stream (usually 4 hours). His graph is a rocket ship straight up with no variance at all save one time in June.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:40 PM   #1110
gar2garvin
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by GazzyB123 View Post
Cliffs on who the Justin dude is
Supposedly he is in charge of running the live stream
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:45 PM   #1111
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist View Post
I have seen a lot of the video evidence. and I may be the only one who thinks this, but I am not convinced that he is cheating.
Numerous pros with multiple WSOP bracelets and 10MM+ each in career tournament earnings would disagree with you. To me, that speaks volumes.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:46 PM   #1112
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by GazzyB123 View Post
Cliffs on who the Justin dude is
Just search function this thread for "Justin" and look at the posts mentioning the name
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:46 PM   #1113
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

If Justin or another member of staff is in on this there might be another motive as well as purely for direct financial gain. These insane hands make a very entertaining watch for the stream & their big selling point is always making memes etc of Mike like he's some sort of god. (Though the latter could be purely a joke from the commentators who aren't in on it.)

Splitting $900 an hour between 2/3 of you and watch as your streams viewer count rises.. win/win. It seems crazy but this has gone on for two years now.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:48 PM   #1114
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by samcx View Post
If Justin or another member of staff is in on this there might be another motive as well as purely for financial gain. These insane hands make a very entertaining watch for the stream & their big selling point is always making memes etc of Mike like he's some sort of god. (Though the latter could be purely a joke from the commentators who aren't in on it.)

Splitting $900 an hour between 2/3 of you and watch as your streams viewer count rises.. win/win. It seems crazy but this has gone on for two years now.
Or just put up two prop players and let them clash. Or I don´t know, anything that doesn't cheat all the other players out of a quarter million dollars.

It's the money.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:48 PM   #1115
Halo_P1
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Alright bros, Mike is cooked, he is done. This Justin guy however, is not.

Im sifting through the Stones Live Poker YouTube here for a stream where he is commentating and MP is playing (first one I found is ALL the way back in May 6th- he hasnt been commentating with Mike at the table since then).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBTJkgd7YsQ

Can someone help me look for any of the following:
(i) shady **** coming from the booth when Justin is commentating.
(ii) Mike Godmoding any hands (or rather, if he isnt!)
(iii) Any Mike Crotch sniffing (or the lack thereof)

If he is a mortal in this stream the OMG he is so done. Will Post Updates here:

HAND 1: Mike has a boat and his opponents have total air in PLO. He turned bottom boat and checked back turn for pot control. Then river, Mike BETS FOR VALUE with opponents having J high and K high respectively. AKA human play. Also no crotch sniffing.
https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=1559

WTF THE ****ING CROTCH PHONE IS NOT IN PLAY RIGHT NOW AND JUSTIN IS COMMENTATING!!



UPDATE 2: Justin confirms when he is gone to Vegas May 25th to July 16th
https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=2832

Hand 2: Mike incorrectly bets a set into a flush and a made low in PLO HiLo so Mike has the worst equity in this hand and INCORRECTLY CALLS ON THE RIVER. THIS MAN IS HUMAN ALL OF A SUDDEN.
https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=2908

Last edited by R*R; 10-02-2019 at 03:29 PM. Reason: let the profanity filter do its work people
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:50 PM   #1116
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I'm about to play a super soft game. My strategy is to bluff calling stations in multi way pots. Hopefully I can pick spots where they have nothing every time.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:51 PM   #1117
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Balbomb View Post
It's good that she came forward, but not sure she deserves the accolades she is getting from a lot of people. Her twitter timeline is essentially a big pat on the back for after 100s of hours of watching him play, and I also believe no longer working for the casino, then coming forward with allegations. This is of course after having a custom made "god mode" graphic for the cheater. I understand its difficult for a lot of people to think the worst about someone, but I really believe the commentators deserve some blame for not raising more questions sooner. I certainly would feel that way if I was one of the ones cheated out of money.
OR, she was waiting for the right moment and support to come forward to make sure this has the best chance of making a case.

i think she said she stopped working as a dealer for a year on the January 2019 stream, and being a commentator isnt exactly working for Stones.

Mb this should have come up sooner, but who knows what she tried and the decisions shes made in the past year that led up to this. its ez for you to say this or that anonymously behind a monitor and keyboard... but im pretty sure Veronica is due some credit for her good deed. shes put her career and reputation on the line to bring to light a suspected cheater, an act she gains absolutely nothing from except peace of mind and a good nights sleep, and i respect that.

i think others at the casino do deserve some blame, as do the players themselves as it is ultimately their job to prtoect themselves. its not like they couldnt watch the stream playback themselves and they experienced it first hand.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:52 PM   #1118
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I mean I don’t know but aren’t there very good quality high tech small cameras that you could easily hide in a room and direct it at the screen? I don’t think anybody he is working with is necessarily in the room while this is going down.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:52 PM   #1119
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey View Post
Joey man you're doing great work but I question why you need to go any further than this. I don't think you're going to find a more compelling hand. Not only does his play here make absolutely zero sense unless he knew that A) the all-in opponent couldn't beat 9 high and B) the opponent he was deep against did not have 99+ (and even then, it's barely +EV, if it even is at all), but he also seems to accidentally reveal that he somehow knows his all-in opponent has turned a draw before the cards are even flipped!! Literally the only plausible explanations (in order of likelihood) are

1) He is cheating and knows the hole cards
2) He had a stroke
3) You had a stroke
4) MiKe PoStLe MaKeS uNoRtHoDoX pLaYs YoU wOuLdN't UnDeRsTaNd
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:56 PM   #1120
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by BabyDutch View Post
Shout out to the guys for their work on this. Lots of time and effort to produce the session log and win rate.

What sinks him for me is how minimal his very few losses are. ONE session amounts to more than a 2 Buy In loss relative to stakes. And I only count one loss that is 2 BI, all others would be considered 1 BI. It’s impossible for a LAG with his VPIP to not sustain more losses at a high BI level given the limited amount of time he gets to play on stream (usually 4 hours). His graph is a rocket ship straight up with no variance at all save one time in June.
Those two losses (6/15, 7/24) are worth watching. I'm not a pro - I consider myself a winning rec. I understand the game enough to win at 5/5, but can't break it down the way others do.

The 6/15 game has the feel of one of those gamble-it-up LATB sessions. Someone named Birthday Girl (or something similar) is winning big, lots of cash flow. Seems more like a drunken home game to me.

The 7/24 session is also odd. He loses his first 1k buy-in (AJ vs AK all-in pre), which is odd, but in the past he's lost and bought in for the highest stack. He only rebuys 1k, then gets into a massive cooler. I think it was a bomb pot, but he lost K7 vs QQ on a KQ77X runout. Then he doesn't rebuy - only session I can remember where he leaves before the end.

Damning evidence? No, just very out of the norm from nearly every other session.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:56 PM   #1121
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

another key piece of evidence is him tweeting out "The only thing I apologize for is being better at poker than you", I have NEVER heard an innocent person talk like this
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:58 PM   #1122
rickroll
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halo_P1 View Post
Alright bros, Mike is cooked, he is done. This Justin guy however, is not.

Im sifting through the Stones Live Poker YouTube here for a stream where he is commentating and MP is playing (first one I found is ALL the way back in May 6th- he hasnt been commentating with Mike at the table since then).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBTJkgd7YsQ

Can someone help me look for any of the following:
(i) shady sh*t coming from the booth when Justin is commentating.
(ii) Mike Godmoding any hands
(iii) Any Mike Crotch sniffing.

If he is a mortal in this stream the OMG he is so done.
you don't need to be physically commenting for him to be colluding with mike, if anything, it's less likely he'd be doing it while on camera

but this is all kind of baseless anyway because we don't know the exact methodology

you missed it, but there was a tweet showing when justin was in vegas and not running the streams, Mike basically stopped showing up and playing... that's purely circumstantial but pretty damning if he didn't play while his prime accomplice suspect was out of town
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Old 10-02-2019, 02:00 PM   #1123
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

btw I think it's worth mentioning that he is probably not cheating on literally every single hand, it is possible that his device had some occasional technical difficulties or moments where his inside guy had to take a bathroom break. or maybe there were spots when he thought another player was onto him glancing down all the time. or maybe he misread a text. not to mention that he at least had *some* self-awareness of the idea that this was being livestreamed so he couldn't exactly just open fold KK or whatever...though he does seem to do everything short of that
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Old 10-02-2019, 02:01 PM   #1124
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
in before Postle last seen in Costa Rica or some other non-extradition treaty nation.
He doesn't have to leave, all he has to do is stop doing it. It is going to be borderline impossible to get hard evidence that would lead to a criminal charge, especially now that he knows the jig is up.

Now based on how bad and obvious he was at the cheating I can believe he might be dumb enough to fail at a cover up too but it would be so easy to clean this up. Everyone who knows anything about poker knows he was cheating but what physical evidence can come out of this at this point?

Without a confession from someone involved and/or some evidence like searching his phone and finding the cheating software on it, how can he be charged with anything? And how would a warrant to search his phone happen? As compelling as these hands are as evidence to poker players I can't imagine they are sufficient to get police involved.

On the other hand he is laughably dumb so hopefully he'll find a way to blow it.
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Old 10-02-2019, 02:02 PM   #1125
gar2garvin
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re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7QrK6wYz0w&t=1420s

This is from his big losing session, also when Justin is in Las Vegas. Notice how Postle has phone on the table and is not doing his whole look down into crotch maneuver.
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