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Old 10-07-2019, 10:34 PM   #5826
lawdude
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Yeah, I'm sure Mike did all this. He couldn't even bother not 3bet shoving 62o bottom pair for $1600 but he's covered his tracks perfectly on this. He actually swapped out the entire server for one he had prepared for just this scenario. All his phones were burner phones and the money trail will lead investigators to an 89 year old man named Modesto Cunanan who lives in a small hut just outside a tiny village in the Philippines. When investigators check the security cameras they will discover that all cameras were on a 24 hour loop and haven't recorded anything of significance in the last 18 months.
This is the legal/obstruction of justice version of the poker player who plays like a maniac pre-flop and then turns into the perfect God mode player post-flop. Both things don't exist.

$200k criminals do not carefully, successfully, and without leaving any evidence trail, obstruct justice.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:35 PM   #5827
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Heart Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I'm not a lawyer but if I understand his posts correctly, he is saying that he would not have to use statistical evidence.

The argument is not "the guy's winrate is impossible".

The argument is "he is looking at his phone and then making a decision based on his opponents cards -- every single time. And here is video of him doing it, over and over and over. And on the days when he isn't looking at his phone, his hat has this mysterious bulge in it, and he covers his ears before making a decision. And here is that on video, again and again and again". Honestly, I think that even I could explain that to a jury. It's extremely obvious and anyone can understand it.
Correct.

And you overlay video of his actions from before 7/18/18 with a giant poster of his tiny winnings.

And you overlay video of his actions from after 7/18/18 with a giant poster of his large winnings

Last edited by WaitingForMPJ; 10-07-2019 at 10:46 PM. Reason: No need to get into sophisticated math
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:36 PM   #5828
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
What's really blowing my mind is their is a very clear online vs live mentality at play here. If you saw someone playing like this online over a decent sample and crushing, you would be instantly suspicious! So many people live were not, because he was always taking in pots and stacking chips.
Suspicious?

100% I would be leaving the site unless they ban the player right away

there's a reason i only play stars atm lol
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:40 PM   #5829
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I am not attacking you in any way, but I have to ask:

1. How many jury trials have you done as a prosecutor?;
2. How many jury trials have you done as a criminal defense attorney?

As someone who has tried hundreds of jury trials both as a prosecutor and defense attorney I find some of your posts to be naive at best.

I prosecuted homicide and rape cases back when dna evidence was first introduced and was not generally understood/accepted. You underestimate how difficulf it is to explain statistical evidence to a jury of lay people. Thinking that you could explain win rates and standard deviations as applied to poker in 4 hours is not realistic. I have spent 4 days putting on expert witnesses to explain complex evidence to a jury.

How many complex criminal investigations have you overseen? I supervised hundreds of complex criminal investigations as a prosecutor. Let me be clear, I personally believe that MP is a cheater. Further, I am not claiming that criminal charges will not be brought nor that they would fail to result in a conviction. However, your certitude regarding how likely/easy such a prosecution would be is, in my opinion, misplaced.
I am a civil litigator. But civil litigators use expert testimony and complex statistical evidence too.

And I think the error you make (and I think it's actually a whopper of an error) is assuming that in any way this case is nothing more than a morass of statistics. This case is actually EASIER to explain than many federal financial fraud cases, and the DOJ routinely wins those despite facing the best defense attorneys around.

If you are actually an experienced prosecutor (and I have no doubt you are), I am very shocked that you see this case as complex. This case is NOT dependent on statistics. It's dependent on things juries understand perfectly well, such as the presence or absence of cell phones, looking at the crotch, friends being in and out of town, and bulges in the hats. You are acting like what the prosecutor would do here is spend days explaining poker statistics to a jury. But only the dumbest prosecutor would do that here. You don't have to, and it's not the way to win cases like this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:41 PM   #5830
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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What's really blowing my mind is their is a very clear online vs live mentality at play here. If you saw someone playing like this online over a decent sample and crushing, you would be instantly suspicious! So many people live were not, because he was always taking in pots and stacking chips.
Who exactly observed Mike Postle crushing over a decent sample of hands?
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:41 PM   #5831
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

We need to get Joey on Joe rogan once everything's out. Think it would be great to get the story out there if Mike doesn't get in trouble with the law.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:42 PM   #5832
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Most popular theory involve 3 people, not only these 2
What's the most popular theory?
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:44 PM   #5833
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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If they can scan RFID from distance, all they need is the good key to decrypt the data, so it wouldn't been so hard... The keys on the table could be enough.

Is it me or there is a guy aiming for the girl's card with his cell phone the first time Postle cheated? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aGD4FYX9NA&t=815s

Seriously, look at that... I'm freaked out... If youcan read the RFID from distance, this is probably what Postle and his team is doing...
I saw Harlan doing the same thing to a guy in a hand with Mike. Probably just a coincidence they both lined up with the cards while texting.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:45 PM   #5834
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Suspicious?

100% I would be leaving the site unless they ban the player right away

there's a reason i only play stars atm lol
I play PLO 100 and 200 on stars and we're only what, 4ish years from bots taking 1.5 million out of those games so...

Dream: anyone watching the stream/going over the hands now? People like Veronica who grew suspicious and got this ball rolling?
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:45 PM   #5835
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Xenicide View Post
Also claiming mike might have done this all on his own just makes me think your trying to defend someone other than mike thats probably guilty.
What a load of ****ing nonsense. How is this helping anything?

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Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
To the newbs who still think the commentators were in on it...
I know they appear fawning at times, but if any of the main commentators were in on the cheating, don't you think they would have been less sensationalist, so as not to draw attention to ridiculous hands? In some spots they literally scream things like "Don't do it!" or "I can't believe he's making this play!", or they congratulate people for making sick hero-calls when Postle bluffs.
Watch the controversial hand vs T-bone again: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/365129696?t=02h33m20s
They give T-bone the "OMG" meme, because they think his bluff is so sick. It initially doesn't even occur to them that Postle will re-bluff. Note that one commentator yells to the man in the editing booth "Does he have 89? Taylor, does he have 89?" and the other soon adds "Just give T-bone the money."
Both guys seem quite deflated when the graphics changed and the pot was eventually pushed to Postle.

FWIW, even the twitch chatters thought something was up. Someone wrote "I declare shenanigans".
Agreed. I'm not going to say it's impossible something is up, but it doesn't seem especially likely to me. If their commentary was part of their being "in on it", they're terrible accomplices.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:47 PM   #5836
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 27AllIn View Post
Here's some points against the commentators being in on the cheating, why they didn't notice it going on, and some justification for their "suspicious" comments:

-Since cheating isn't on anyone's radar, they're going to try to justify what they see on the screen anyway they can.
-He had a huge VPIP so people wanted to play with him. It would be easy to assume he's a donkey on a heater, and was drinking so he's making some crazy plays that happened to work
-He became the cardroom hero, so they're going to be praising him and his genius, instead of asking questions. Group think will influence/silence any questioners or doubters
-This happening is unprecedented
-Commentators work in shifts so they don't see all the hands Postle plays
-Commentators themselves likely aren't strong poker players, so when they see Mike do something that works, they're not going to be able to criticize it. Even if it was a bad/ crazy play.
-Mike Postle was likely friends or quite friendly with them, and probably tipped everyone quite well
-Twitch viewers, or Youtube viewers also didn't notice cheating going on, or didn't speak up against it

I'm not ruling out that commentators aren't in on this somehow. I just don't think their comments, that I've seen so far, incriminate themselves by any means. Plus one commentator did speak out against Mike, Angry_Polak. She received a lot of pressure from Mike's friends, and others, to hush up. I bet someone could manufacture a compilation of all her comments that would make her look fishy.
Great points but...

Why aren't we hearing anything from these guys right now?

if I was accused/suspect of cheating and was innocent I would give all possible information that would innocent me right away
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:49 PM   #5837
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Ugggh, is this over yet?
nah, plenty of uninformed morons still feel super inclined to chime in with their worthless opinions
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:49 PM   #5838
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vaF...outu.be&t=1167

Like the commentators, I watch this and go 'wtf?!' lol

Question about the RFID excuse:

Watch from around 21:40.

He never turns his cards over. He throws them straight in the muck.
They land infront of the dealer face down. The dealer scoops up all cards.
The RFID computer has registered the cards as 88.

So how does anyone decide that the computer is wrong and they think it is now exactly '78'? This is a lie.
If the RFID doesn't know the cards, and noone else saw the cards, then there is no other information.
I think that he did have 88.


Here they are later discussing that same hand:
https://youtu.be/0vaF0kwjQhg?t=1505

"So Rita's asking why the call on the river if he knows he's beat?"

25:25 Kasey: "Justin just said he didn't have 88, he had 78"

It's not necessarily Justin's idea.
Either someone on the team told Justin this fake info, to relay it to Kasey, or the idea came out of Justin's head.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:50 PM   #5839
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by a dewd View Post
He cannot and will not get backed for higher stakes.
Why can he not? Is there a law against it? Will it trigger an immune response?

I think there are people who would put him in just to see how he does. I would if I had money (one reason why ...)!

Mike Matusow gets stakes from the best players in the world.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:51 PM   #5840
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Great points but...

Why aren't we hearing anything from these guys right now?

if I was accused/suspect of cheating and was innocent I would give all possible information that would innocent me right away
Some of them are talking, but you haven't noticed because they don't have highly visible platforms.

Also, aside from Justin Kuraitis, are any of them really being accused of cheating? I doubt any of them feel a sense of urgency to defend themselves against anything.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:51 PM   #5841
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Great points but...

Why aren't we hearing anything from these guys right now?

if I was accused/suspect of cheating and was innocent I would give all possible information that would innocent me right away
We haven't heard from any of them though. Theres no way they are all in on it and it went on this long. Safe to assume the casino/lawyers contacted all the announcers and people working on the show and told them not to talk publicly about any of this.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:51 PM   #5842
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Why can he not? Is there a law against it? Will it trigger an immune response?

I think there are people who would put him in just to see how he does. I would if I had money (one reason why ...)!

Mike Matusow gets stakes from the best players in the world.
There's a sucker born every minute.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:53 PM   #5843
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Grind On My Mind View Post
24:30 We can see mike phone turn on with a big blue screen as he gets up. Does that all blue screen mean anything with regards to obs, the stream setup, the live feed, or etc....?

Because it clearly isn't a regular homescreen. Could the all blue be the background to the software that shows the hole cards? Anyone zoom in on that blue screen, it almost looks like a line of text towards the top? I need you 2 plus 2 detectives to zoom in and .25 speed that video frame by frame LETS GO. 24:30

https://youtu.be/WaWPHGvuqDg?t=1461
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Originally Posted by Loctus View Post
This is the best frame of it:

This looks similar to the blue background from berkeys video from today. The blue background is used from the feed. When mike clicks his phone on here, he quickly turns it back off. Odd because he isnt checking the time on his phone or anything like that. Hes just staring at the blue background that i presume is what the feed he was getting with hole cards looked like.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:54 PM   #5844
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

My instinct based on all I've seen is that it's two or three including Mike.

I doubt any of the regular commentators are in on it. Why split the cash with any of the people that are not needed to run the operation. Also the conspirators would likely know to keep the circle very small because loose lips sink ships. They might be way dumber than I think [don't answer that ] but if more than three were in on it I would think they would realize the risk of getting caught rises exponentially.


and this:

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Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
If their commentary was part of their being "in on it", they're terrible accomplices.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:54 PM   #5845
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The most natural reaction from the commentators or anyone affiliated with Stones is to publicly downplay the possibility of cheating having occurred in their house. This posture, especially when clumsily communicated by JFK, has the effect of making them seem complicit. Not saying they couldn’t be, but their public response (washing social media, etc) is not very good evidence of it.

The only two possibilities if cheating is happening (1) their system is compromised; or (worse) (2) their people are compromised are extremely bad for business. They don’t want to say a damn thing now until they have conducted a thorough review. They tried to do a quick “investigation” in the hopes it would blow over. When it didn’t they find themselves in a tricky spot: if they don’t find anything they subject themselves to further negligence claims. And that’s the better outcome.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:54 PM   #5846
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Vince2k View Post
If they can scan RFID from distance, all they need is the good key to decrypt the data, so it wouldn't been so hard... The keys on the table could be enough.

Is it me or there is a guy aiming for the girl's card with his cell phone the first time Postle cheated? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aGD4FYX9NA&t=815s

Seriously, look at that... I'm freaked out... If youcan read the RFID from distance, this is probably what Postle and his team is doing...
That's a real big "if" and wouldn't it be much easier to simply watch the live feed? Also, that doesn't explain why Mike can't see cards when players' cards aren't picked up by the room's RFID system.

Also, phones weren't allowed to be out much in the later days and wouldn't it be pretty obvious some dude keeps pointing his phone at your cards? How does he do his magic when he's in pots with 5 other players? He watches the feed or someone else is watching it for him.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:55 PM   #5847
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)



Justin and 100% of the commentators aren't suspicious at all I take it all back.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:57 PM   #5848
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by inmyrav View Post
Why can he not? Is there a law against it? Will it trigger an immune response?

I think there are people who would put him in just to see how he does. I would if I had money (one reason why ...)!

Mike Matusow gets stakes from the best players in the world.

He can't be trusted to pay the money back. Apparently, Mike Matusow can.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:57 PM   #5849
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I am a civil litigator. But civil litigators use expert testimony and complex statistical evidence too.

And I think the error you make (and I think it's actually a whopper of an error) is assuming that in any way this case is nothing more than a morass of statistics. This case is actually EASIER to explain than many federal financial fraud cases, and the DOJ routinely wins those despite facing the best defense attorneys around.

If you are actually an experienced prosecutor (and I have no doubt you are), I am very shocked that you see this case as complex. This case is NOT dependent on statistics. It's dependent on things juries understand perfectly well, such as the presence or absence of cell phones, looking at the crotch, friends being in and out of town, and bulges in the hats. You are acting like what the prosecutor would do here is spend days explaining poker statistics to a jury. But only the dumbest prosecutor would do that here. You don't have to, and it's not the way to win cases like this.
As a civil litigator you present your cases based on the preponderance of evidence standard. And certainly from a civil litigation perspective, high winrates and oddly looking at ones phone can be enough to win a civil trial. But a criminal trial obviously requires a different standard. I don't know if this (as a criminal trial) would be "complex" per se. However, if the only evidence a prosecutor has is high winrates and odd behavior, is that sufficient to meet the criminal standard? I really don't know. But if I'm a prosecutor and put out for the court that MP is looking oddly at his phone and postulate he is receiving information about other players' hole cards: I would want to be able to show with evidence that my theory is actually true.
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Old 10-07-2019, 10:59 PM   #5850
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Living Abortion View Post
Sure, Postle, I'll give you credit that you wanted to stay where you live and play in the games you have been playing. I'll give you credit that you want to stay close to family and that you have made a life you do not want to leave or put on hold by playing games elsewhere. That is totally your prerogative and I think it is a fair argument and I cannot attest to the integrity of something only you know internally.

But everything else points to you cheating...
How many 1-3 / 2-5 crushers (there are many) have survived the move up to higher stakes, even 5-10? Andrew Neeme? no. Jeff Boski? no the list is long of people stuck at low stakes, unable to move up, so desperate to get out of a tight life spot they're making youtube videos. Good on them!

But to suggest he just MOVE UP overlooks the reality that this 1-3 plays much higher occasionally, just with guys who are fish in 1-3. You'd really move up in this pond?

His explanations sound off in my opinion -- but I'm not good at reading off. Nothing coming from Postle has mitigated the accusations against him so far as my opinion can tell.

Also, I want to add in case Postle is reading this: stop talking. This is common sense even though I am not a professional anything. Get a lawyer too, but imo first stop talking. Whether you are innocent or guilty.

Last edited by inmyrav; 10-07-2019 at 11:16 PM.
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