Bart's chess hypothetical is a good thought experiment. This probably wasn't his point, but it points out how the "incomplete information" aspect of poker is so key to the allegations against Postle.
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Originally Posted by BartHanson
As a result, an investigation was launched where the top 100 players in the world analyzed the matches won by the 1500 rated player. All 100 thought the player was somehow using a chess engine during play due to some of the moves that couldn't be consistent with a player of that rating or for any human for that matter. The elite players couldn’t figure out the mechanics of how such an engine could be used in a live format but 100% of them agreed that computer aide was involved. There would be no "smoking gun" here but we can all agree that this would be damning evidence that would be overly convincing, even to the general public that had no knowledge of chess.
It seems barely feasible that a complete unknown could have incredible aptitude for chess and, in their very first ranked games, start playing at a Master level. Moreover, I don't know if 100 GMs could conclusively determine that a computer engine was used, versus our neophyte just having an innate, superhuman ability to calculate much like a computer engine. It might be hard to tease out the difference between the two.
(I don't know enough chess to know if a human could be that machinelike, ignorant of strategy but amazing at tactical calculations.)
Postle most outrageous plays fall in a category of "plays an expert would never make without knowing the cards." The 54o-AK-AK hand might not be fully convincing in isolation -- loose players take all kinds of gambles preflop -- but together with several other examples, it's hard to argue he was just superhumanly brilliant, nor superhumanly lucky.
So the prodigy defense could make sense in chess, but makes no sense in poker given the evidence against Postle. A moderately competent player, never mind a prodigy, isn't going to get all the chips in with 54o three ways preflop.
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Originally Posted by SplawnDarts
No it's not enough. It's not enough to even get your claim to the jury. Apparently you haven't been paying attention to what happened to the lawsuit and why.
That's because of an antebellum California law that basically gives cheaters free rein to do their thing without the courts getting involved. In no way is that a judgment on the quality or sufficiency of the evidence.