Quote:
Originally Posted by Ten5x
I agree with your analysis that he makes very very fishy plays. The issue is all of his fishy plays seem to work out. With the kinds of bad fundamental plays he makes, there should be countless examples of him bluffing into the nuts, hero calling against the nuts, etc. The whole argument against postle is in the entirety of his hands, not in any one specific play. I'm sure any hands in isolation, another fish has made a similar play. All of the analysis is in the context of him being one of the biggest winners of all time live (in terms of bb/100). If he was a losing player, nobody would think twice about these plays, because, as you stated, that's how fishy players play. For example, I've never won allin preflop with 54o for >100bb, and I'm sure lots of fish have. The issue: how is he winning overall while making these terrible plays, and how are all his terrible plays so well timed?
Thank you. I had the same response reading that long post, and knew someone would sum it up well (and more succinctly than I would have). Did not disappoint.
I've bolded one part because I find it so vexing that Postle's defenders continue to fire claims of "cherry picking." Clearly, they don't seem to get that these suspect hands are
examples, not
exceptions.
One little project that might be worth pursuing: as Galfond's team pores through Postle hands yet again, they will assemble statistics such as street-by-street aggression factor, etc. (I know, duh, that's the whole point of doing it.) But I would also love to see how these compare to a top-level player, like Galfond himself. It would almost be a control case, with Postle being the experimental case.
The big takes I would enjoy – in a quantitative manner – are how often an elite player suffers the business end of a cooler, or runs a bluff into a monster hand. Because the oft-repeated point is that this never happened to Postle. So much so, in fact, that he was offering a reward to people who could find hands in which he DID do this, and apparently got no takers.