Markup Shocker!!! Is Matusow charging more than Fedor????? What does Hellmuth really think? - Page 4 - Poker News

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Markup Shocker!!! Is Matusow charging more than Fedor????? What does Hellmuth really think?

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11-28-2021 , 06:35 AM

#76

jamesisarobot

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 215

Firstly, Mike ran pretty bad this series. He's lucky to have made a profit.

Secondly, let's calculate his average ROI:

5.6 + 2.3 + 2.4 + 5 + 1.6 +3.5 + 2.4 + 10 = 32.8

32.8/24 = 1.37

So, Mike's average ROI was 37%

So, despite having an objectively unlucky run, Mike wasn't too far off his 50% ROI target.

WP this series, Mike!

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11-28-2021 , 06:44 AM

#77

Atarirob

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,648

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesisarobot

Whats AVG ROI, I know ROI. We know how many events he played. We know how much he cashed. It’s 8%

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11-28-2021 , 06:52 AM

#78

jamesisarobot

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 215

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atarirob

Whats AVG ROI, I know ROI. We know how many events he played. We know how much he cashed. It’s 8%

Average ROI is calculated like this:

Calculate his ROI from each individual event. Sum these ROIs. Divide by total number of events.

In other words, Mike's average ROI is what his absolute ROI would have been if all the events he played had had the same buy-in amount.

This stops the ROI from being massively skewed towards his results in the highest buy-in events he played.

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11-28-2021 , 07:52 AM

#79

dingdongdonkey

banned

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 1,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesisarobot

You somehow "forgot" to substract the initial buy-ins. Cashing for 5,6x your buy-in doesn't mean your ROI is 560%. In fact, it's "only" 460%.

Mikey's average ROI is "only" 24,12% if you adjust for that.

As an aside, I wouldn't take his word when it comes to "running bad". Just to give one example, you don't finish 7th in a 500 man PLO donkament unless you run really good. He may have taken some bad beats in big spots, but my guess is he ran pretty average and just remembers/highlights the bad beats. It's only human.

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11-28-2021 , 07:57 AM

#80

jamesisarobot

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 215

Quote:

Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey

Thanks, genuine mistake (I am not great at math).

4.6 + 1.3 + 1.4 + 4 + 0.6 +2.5 + 1.4 + 9 = 24.8

His average ROI = roughly 24.8%, which isn't exactly terrible. We can debate whether he ran well or not, but what is for certain is that it's a small sample and he did well, albeit not as well as one might expect of such a great player.

Last edited by jamesisarobot; 11-28-2021 at 08:04 AM.

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11-28-2021 , 04:51 PM

#81

TheTyman9

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 4,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesisarobot

His ROI is also almost certainly higher in the bigger field/softer events with more bad players as opposed to the tougher small field 10k+ events. The small sample is close to meaningless but the reality is that he is nowhere near 1.5 in these events.

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11-28-2021 , 05:14 PM

#82

Atarirob

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,648

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesisarobot

Yah, adding up a bunch of numbers isn’t averaging. The average of those numbers is 3.1%. Again I’m not sure where you got those ROI numbers.

Mike spent $162,000 and won $174,736 for a profit of $12,736. $12,736 / $162,000 is 7.8 so about 8% ROI.

Let’s look at Mike in the 10ks. If you don’t include the 25k HORSE he was 4.5% ROI. With it it’s like -16%. Pretty sure my math is right, could be wrong.

Last edited by Atarirob; 11-28-2021 at 05:28 PM.

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11-28-2021 , 06:57 PM

#83

OneCrazyDuck

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesisarobot

His ROI on events he didn’t cash is -1, not 0.

Quote

11-28-2021 , 08:16 PM

#84

borg23

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 16,623

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesisarobot

how was he objectively unlucky?
unless you mean he's unlucky to be an idiot cry baby.

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11-28-2021 , 10:20 PM

#85

jamesisarobot

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 215

OK I'm going to admit to being an idiot and not post any more in this thread

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11-29-2021 , 06:00 AM

#86

auralex14

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,924

You have a fascinating approach to math, jaimeisarobot. Thanks for the lols.

Quote

11-29-2021 , 06:19 AM

#87

smoothcriminal99

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,593

His roi in $500 tournaments is completely different then his roi in 10ks… hourly of 50% roi in a $500 tournament is probably like 20$/hr if he doesn’t late reg compared to hourly of 10k with 50% roi is like 300$/hr. It’s really not that hard to have 50% roi in $500 5k entrant tournaments. It’s really hard to have 50% roi in 10ks with 100 of the best players in the world and maybe like 10spots.

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11-29-2021 , 06:35 AM

#88

namisgr11

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,598

So did investors do better buying pieces of Mikey or Fedor? Anyone know Fedor's ROI for the series, or at least for the events he sold pieces for?

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12-04-2021 , 07:00 AM

#89

iwasbanned

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 4,684

Mike lying about his 2021 WSOP results is leaking out elsewhere.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey

According to Hendon Mob, he actually cashed in 8 events.

Quote:

According to the WSOP website, Mike cashed 8 events.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atarirob

Mike spent $162,000 and won $174,736 for a profit of $12,736. $12,736 / $162,000 is 7.8 so about 8% ROI.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atarirob

These were the events we can verify through PokerNews that Mike played.
24 events, $162,000 in buy ins, $174,736 in cashes for total of $12,736 for I believe is around an 8% ROI.

Mike lying about his 2021 WSOP results is leaking out elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/CasinoNews6/stat...62670734106624

https://twitter.com/themouthmatusow/...95551380160515

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12-05-2021 , 01:06 AM

#90

mrmr

adept

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 877

Quote:

Originally Posted by borg23

how was he objectively unlucky?
unless you mean he's unlucky to be an idiot cry baby.

Post of the year?

Even if not, very funny.

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12-05-2021 , 10:47 AM

#91

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,833

I agree he was acting like a jerk misstating his results and complaining about bad beats. However, the results do not indicate that the 1.3 markup was incorrect for the mixed game, limit games, and PLO tournaments he was playing. I good player can get a lot higher markup in mixed games, the main event, etc. than in those high roller NLHE tournaments Fedor plays.

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12-05-2021 , 12:27 PM

#92

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,833

Matusow would make about $50K selling all his action on $160K in buyins at a 30% markup. How much dead money is there in the ME or those $1500 HORSE events with older amateurs that Matusow played. Fedor could make the same $50K selling all his action at a 20% markup in one $250K super high roller. If you sell all your action in a $1500 tournament at a 30% markup, you only make $450 playing the tournament. Now Matusow's average buyin was a lot higher, about $6,500. However, are people buying the action because he is still sort of a big name or because it is a reasonable investment?

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12-06-2021 , 07:30 AM

#93

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteBlow

I wonder what the crossover is of people thinking Mike is scamming and those who think NFTs are a good idea.

lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by prop_player

Name brands are able to charge a premium and get away with it all the time in the normal marketplace.

Indeed. I'm not in the business of staking, but if I'm dumping some cash into a player I'm accepting that most of the time it is being set on fire, but I might get some entertainment. I'll probably get more of that than staking whatever a Fedor is. Might be close if the OP is referring to the MMA guy

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12-06-2021 , 11:29 AM

#94

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,833

Matusow had a slight loss. He made final tables. If he had finished in the top 3 at any of those final tables, he would have made a big profit. If the 30% markup is overpaying, it is not overpaying by much. You all really think he is that bad that he is expected ROI- in the events he plays? He is not playing high rollers.

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12-06-2021 , 11:50 AM

#95

iwasbanned

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 4,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

Matusow had a slight loss.

I'm thinking he had a slight profit, not 100% sure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

He made final tables.

Mike claimed he made 3 final tables.

The records indicate he made 2 final tables.

Mike managed to spew out 4 lies in one sentence.
Even for Mike, a pathological liar, that's impressive.

Everthing in this sentence of Mike's is a lie.

Quote:

Matusow stated: Final stats 23 tourneys 11 cashes 3 final tables $26k profit!

https://twitter.com/themouthmatusow/...95551380160515

Quote

12-06-2021 , 12:36 PM

#96

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,833

He came in 9th in the $2500 9-game. That event was 6-handed, so it technically was not a final table, but I guess Matusow was counting it as one.

The fact remains that he easily could have finished higher in one of the final table or almost final table or in the ME which he cashed. In that case, whoever bought action at 130% would have made a huge profit rather than a slight loss.

Quote

12-06-2021 , 01:05 PM

#97

iwasbanned

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 4,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

He came in 9th in the $2500 9-game. That event was 6-handed, so it technically was not a final table, but I guess Matusow was counting it as one.

I stand corrected, Mike made One Official final table, and 2 Unofficial final tables.

Don't get me wrong, Mike had a better WSOP than 95% of the people who played multiple events.

He went home a 'slight winner' (I think), that's better than 95% of the people who played multiple events did.

Quote

12-06-2021 , 01:24 PM

#98

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,833

OK, so one official final table, 2 unofficial final tables, and a 9th place in a 6-handed event. So he blatantly lied saying he made 3 final tables.

Obviously, also scamming selling action at a 30% markup. The nature of these events is that there is big money in the top prizes, so most people are going to wind up losing money. If someone makes final tables and makes a profit, plus the cash in the ME and the 14th with 12 playing in the $25K HORSE (actually not the exact bubble, so another lie), then if he got a bit luckier he easily could have wound up with a 300% or so ROI, making a big profit for those who invested at 130%.

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