Ivey is very confident hes getting a bracelet - Poker News

Ivey already bet Ted Forrest 500K that he would win 2 and 1 mill for 3. Then he just bet Negreanu 200K per bracelet. Then you look at Negreanu's updates and this "Crazy action in the VIP room. Ivey is betting everyone at 1.8 to 1 odds that he wins a bracelet" is from Negreanu's updates. I really think Ivey might go on a tear this year. I bet he already has 2 million in bets on winning a bracelet. Well see what happens he is very confident though. 1.8 to 1 odds.

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05-30-2008 , 07:59 PM

The4thFilm

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 13,472

I'm willing to put my life savings against him on this.

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05-30-2008 , 08:00 PM

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 74,373

i'll bet anyone $100 at those odds he doesn't win one this year.

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05-30-2008 , 08:03 PM

the_nightfox

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 274

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominic

i'll bet anyone $100 at those odds he doesn't win one this year.

book it

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05-30-2008 , 08:04 PM

SluggerWV

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 725

I dont see why the both couldn't win one. You've got to love the stakes

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05-30-2008 , 08:05 PM

DarkEnergy

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 236

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominic

i'll bet anyone $100 at those odds he doesn't win one this year.

Same here. sounds like a very +EV bet

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05-30-2008 , 08:14 PM

Toerazor

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,954

Thats what I was thinking. 1.8 to 1 odds are soooo good for whoever is betting against him. He is just extremely confident I guess and he is going to play almost all the events you have to believe. If he wins one I bet its gonna be in a non holdem event though. That is his best chance I feel maybe a stud bracelet.

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05-30-2008 , 08:15 PM

[Phill]

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Quote:

Originally Posted by muck_yer_aces

From Negreanu's live update thread:

6:40 PM EST - "I just bet Phil Ivey 200K per bracelet. Each bracelet we win is worth 200K a piece"

7:51 PM EST - "Crazy action in the VIP room. Ivey is betting everyone at 1.8 to 1 odds that he wins a bracelet"

Who'd take that action?

Given the time frame of just this year id (edit, hypothetically) bet my entire net worth against it happening.

54 events with fields in the mid hundreds to the mid thousands - its clearly +EV to bet against him.

200k per bracelet between DN and PI and i take Iveys side of that bet, but its pretty damn close even if you think Ivey is like twice the player than DN is.

Last edited by [Phill]; 05-30-2008 at 08:16 PM. Reason: not taking every edge, dont pm me, obv

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05-30-2008 , 08:18 PM

Daliman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

Given the time frame of just this year id (edit, hypothetically) bet my entire net worth against it happening.

54 events with fields in the mid hundreds to the mid thousands - its clearly +EV to bet against him.

200k per bracelet between DN and PI and i take Iveys side of that bet, but its pretty damn close even if you think Ivey is like twice the player than DN is.

wat

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05-30-2008 , 08:19 PM

#10

Toerazor

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,954

Ill put 20 bucks on Ivey and 4 to 1 odds if anyone wants that. Let me know.

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05-30-2008 , 08:27 PM

#11

the_nightfox

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 274

We have a bet Dominic?

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05-30-2008 , 08:46 PM

#12

klaching

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 389

Quote:

If he wins one I bet its gonna be in a non holdem event though.

good call, half right reason. All of his previous 5 bracelets are in non-holdem events (I believe too lazy to stat check)

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05-30-2008 , 09:20 PM

#13

Ce1ska

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,598

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominic

i'll bet anyone $100 at those odds he doesn't win one this year.

Book it IMO

Last edited by Ce1ska; 05-30-2008 at 09:21 PM. Reason: If your serious about it PM me.

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05-30-2008 , 09:27 PM

#14

The4thFilm

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How many events does he usually play BTW?

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05-30-2008 , 10:09 PM

#15

_myst_

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 113

Anyone have any inside contacts for this? I'm willing to put up a couple hundred K's against him.

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05-30-2008 , 10:11 PM

#16

TheBarrieKid

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 92

2008 H.O.R.S.E CHAMPIONSHIP = PHIL IVEY

He is the best poker player in the world and he will take this down if he wants.

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05-30-2008 , 10:13 PM

#17

The4thFilm

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBarrieKid

2008 H.O.R.S.E CHAMPIONSHIP = PHIL IVEY

He is the best poker player in the world and he will take this down if he wants.

Care to put your money where mouth is?

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05-30-2008 , 10:18 PM

#18

Ce1ska

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,598

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_nightfox

We have a bet Dominic?

+1 IMO

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05-30-2008 , 10:25 PM

#19

postoakpoker

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,292

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBarrieKid

2008 H.O.R.S.E CHAMPIONSHIP = PHIL IVEY

He is the best poker player in the world and he will take this down if he wants.

but what if he doesn't wants?

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05-30-2008 , 10:28 PM

#20

TheBarrieKid

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 92

wants whats doesn't who?
we we don peirrol mika marker jenna haze tmfr up it in

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05-30-2008 , 10:40 PM

#21

Oracle1

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 538

hes gonna win one imo.

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05-30-2008 , 10:54 PM

#22

CadillacZack

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 52

The true odds of him winning a bracelet are way more against him that 1.8 to 1. His confidence and willing to gamble are goin lose him alot of money. That dude is goin to lose a sick amount of money someday even for his roll IMO. He seems to be under the delusion that u can play great and a tournament is just goin to fall into your lap because u deserve it.

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05-30-2008 , 11:00 PM

#23

seth14

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 96

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toerazor

Ivey didnt bet Ted that he would win. They are betting eachother, in all likelihood it will be a wash.

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05-30-2008 , 11:02 PM

#24

[Phill]

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Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 52,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

Given the time frame of just this year id (edit, hypothetically) bet my entire net worth against it happening.

54 events with fields in the mid hundreds to the mid thousands - its clearly +EV to bet against him.

200k per bracelet between DN and PI and i take Iveys side of that bet, but its pretty damn close even if you think Ivey is like twice the player than DN is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daliman

wat

Two factors, firstly the skills required for the opponents in question mean that Ivey cannot use all his weapons - i mean they will only be so deep in chips and the opposition will pretty much all be donks.

Secondly the variance involved means even though one may be a much better player, and have an expected win % higher than the other (though not as large as the 5:3 bracelet edge Ivey has historically imo) overall they should both expect to not win a bracelet, and the first to do so out of the both of them is not the best player but the one who ran hottest (first, if applicable).