Anyone around here miss Paul Phillips?

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.g...374d21312b14c/

All of his posts in that thread are brilliant.

Quote:
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The only way around calling with AA after nine people move in is if
you think you are so good, you never have to go all-in, and that if by
some awful twist of fate you do end up all-in, you will always have
the most dominating situation imaginable (e.g. always pair over pair.)
That is much like the brand of delusion hellmuth lives with, and it's
the reason he is the person I mentioned who might fold AA there.

But hellmuth is the most extreme case of this alive, and I'm fairly
sure even he couldn't live with himself if he folded.

It's not even close."
-----------------------------------------------------------------

I think I would call but i would rather have something like JTs or 65s or even 87o.

this should be posted in HSNL imo

I fold all day long.

Any pro poker player can win 100% of the tournaments he plays against a very passive field if the tournament is deepstacked enough, but this involves never being all in unless you have the absolute nuts.

So really, it depends on the field, on the tournament and on your poker abilities.

A call

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4933654
pokenum -h ac as - ad ah - 6s 7s - jc jd
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 16772 1.54 501387 46.17 567849 52.29 0.276
Ad Ah 26017 2.40 492142 45.32 567849 52.29 0.285
7s 6s 258598 23.81 825071 75.97 2339 0.22 0.239
Jc Jd 216772 19.96 866897 79.82 2339 0.22 0.200


Still a call

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4933659
pokenum -h ac as - ad ah - 6s 7s - jc jd - qc qh
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 11668 1.37 524739 61.69 314261 36.94 0.198
Ad Ah 18748 2.20 517659 60.85 314261 36.94 0.206
7s 6s 201020 23.63 647865 76.16 1783 0.21 0.237
Jc Jd 141903 16.68 706982 83.11 1783 0.21 0.167
Qc Qh 163068 19.17 685817 80.62 1783 0.21 0.192


Eh, if you can see their hole cards you can fold.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4933661
pokenum -h ac as - ad ah - 6s 7s - jc jd - qc qh - kc kh
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 8174 1.24 493866 75.05 155968 23.70 0.130
Ad Ah 13669 2.08 488371 74.22 155968 23.70 0.138
7s 6s 153162 23.28 503257 76.48 1589 0.24 0.233
Jc Jd 93674 14.24 562745 85.52 1589 0.24 0.143
Qc Qh 107560 16.35 548859 83.41 1589 0.24 0.164
Kc Kh 125801 19.12 530618 80.64 1589 0.24 0.192

At the beginning of the tournament I call.

On the bubble/early itm I would probably fold if all 3 players had me covered.

Three people have gone all in before you on the first hand of a tournament and you're folding AA because the blinds are not significant enough?

Lol, not only is this the time its more likely to happen, its also the time where its most correct to make the call (due to the shorter stacks relative to the blinds) - which is NOT to say its anything but a call on hand 1.

With the only possible exception being on the bubble where cashing means you get to pay off the loan shark who is itching to kneecap you. In which case entering the tourney probably wasnt the wisest of decisions.

If I have a $100K last longer bet going I fold. Otherwise I call.

How big would your LL have to be for you to be indifferent between folding and calling? It's kind of an interesting question to me, since quadrupling up will obv help your chances of winning the LL significantly.

As for folding AA preflop it's obviously ******ed, but I'm always a bit surprised at how few people really understand why: To win a tournament, you have to double up X number of times. A player gets his edge by being more likely at any point to double up than to go broke. In this case your combined chances of winning against 3 players is something like 60%, which means you're getting about 75-25 on each of your first two doubles. No one in the tournament, not you, not phil ivey, not phil hellmuth, absolutely no one is a 75-25 favorite on average to double.

waiting patiently for GOGGLES's response

I would consider folding, and try to get it in in a better spot later. Against 3 hands you are basically racing for all your chips in the first hand of the world championship event. Unless you are a zillionaire you aint wanting that. The problem is that the post is in the wrong thread, and NVG posters seem to think that more posts = more knowledge. This thread would prob generate a better debate in MTT. NVG has too many morons to answer a question seriously (and to be fair i love the moronic-ness of NVG)

Get an erection.

agree.

thats a dream situation! then you would have 40k @ 50/100 blinds. run the table over for the next few hrs and u could leave halfway threw the day around 60k.

Remind me to never give YOU my nuts, I mean THE nuts.

also everyone here that say its a "good fold" or "i would have done that same thing" is welcome to sit @ my table anyday @ any level. in a tourny the best thing you can do is get your money in good and pray. win/lose its all part of the game. what are you playing in the ME for if you look down @ aa and pass w. 3 all-ins in front of you..




call call call.

LOL @ folding.
If you were going to fold aces, why not just skip the first day of ME and come play the next day?

fyp

Lol at insulting this forum for being stupid right after picking the "i watch tv but dont win at poker cos im not lucky enough obv" answer.

The only reason this thread is open is because its in this forum. Try and start it in mtt and it will be insta locked because its a ridic ******ed question that comes up way too often.

OP its too likely ur better than a coinflip here, BUT what if the first 9 people shove all in, and then u look down at AA in the big blind...then u might be on the something...

If 3 people shove in before you with KK, QQ, and JJ, your AA is only 54% to win. A coinflip on the first hand of a 6800 player tournament where 80k in chips means nothing by the end?

Even if you are only 50% to win you are getting 3 to 1 so you only need 25% equity.

Assuming 10K stacks 3 to 1 with 50% equity is an expected profit of 10K. With 80% equity against 1 player your expected profit is 6K. So this situation aginst 3 players while more volatile than a spot against one player it is more plus EV.



It's an obvious call.

What Phil said.

If for nothing else, this arguement is great at drawing out the idiots.

if you ever have folded AA preflop you should never be allowed to play poker again. fact.