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Good Or Bad Deal? Bicycle Mega Millions 5K Option for AVG stack ITM Good Or Bad Deal? Bicycle Mega Millions 5K Option for AVG stack ITM

07-21-2013 , 10:57 PM
An interesting idea - but why stop there, maybe they could let any alive player sell their stack at anytime for any amount to anyone that agrees to a price.
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07-22-2013 , 05:34 AM
They are going to anger some LA tourney regs without a doubt. It will be like how the ladies event use to be. They love it when they bust out a dude, but are super heated when a dude busts them out. A reg is going to grind all day, make day two, be dreaming of 200k, pro buys a stack, stacks reg, ends regs 200k dream, reg goes off.
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07-22-2013 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar
Without speaking for anyone else and without commenting on the wisdom of this structure in any way, there is an interesting twist to these rules: if you look at the leaflet closely, you get a $3700 WPT seat for qualifying into Day 2 multiple times.

So let's say someone has 5 BB with 15 minutes left in Day 1.

Option 1: likely mincash (we'll be generous and say $1K in equity)

Option 2: pay $5K to get a 40 BB+ stack in Day 2 and a $3700 WPT seat payout

That makes it wildly +EV for all shortstacks on Day 1 to stall and then buy in again.
Since you can multi enter and play on all of day 1's I think one should do that. As far as you can make it to day2 with whatever stack guarantees you a $3700 seat. Quite amazing. Makes short stack play at the end of the day quite interesting.

So lets say for arguments sake that 100 people get paid. When there are 100 left can you buy-in? So now there are 101 players. Is the next person to bust going out empty handed? Or are they letting people buy-in after there are 99 left, and then let the 100th dude sit in with 40bb's? Say 20 people buy-in for $5k after the bubble bursts. Now there are 120 players. Are they restructuring the payouts so that all 120 get paid? This sounds like a nightmare to handle correctly. Sounds like a bad idea to be honest. Icreases the payouts quite a bit, but super hard to make it fair for everyone.

Last edited by archii; 07-22-2013 at 03:45 PM.
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07-22-2013 , 06:48 PM
Yeah, the payout thing is weird. According to the structure sheet, top 10% of each Day 1 make it into the money, but only 5% advance to the next day. So, I guess all those extra Day 2 entries will only be added to the remaining prize pool, making it way more top heavy. Otherwise they'd have to stall the payouts for that bottom 5% until they calculate the total prize pool.

I don't know how many players they expect to buy in this way (5k on Day 2), but I can see it being at least 100, which would add 500k to the prize pool. So what about the people who already busted in the money on Day 1?? Will their cashes be any larger?? I predict that a lot of local players who live for their min-cashes will be very upset about this.

I'm so not a fan of this idea, and I probably won't play this event because of it. I'm already at a disadvantage by not being able to re-buy and re-enter a bunch of times for one tournament. Now my chances of winning the whole thing will be even lower with a bunch of pros buying in at the end. I can't think of a reason for the Bike to do this, unless they think they would have trouble meeting the million dollar guarantee (which they never have before). I really hope this doesn't become a pattern for all of their low-buyin tourneys with big guarantees.

It just doesn't make any sense. Why not give the people who want to buy in for 5k their own tournament (hey, what a concept)? It would be essentially the same thing, except this way they are basically freerolling for 2/3 of the prizepool.
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07-22-2013 , 07:03 PM
I would say that this is EXTREMELY negotive ev for several reasons...

1) One of the main things that really good tourney players do is gamble early in order to get a big chip stack to bully the table during later stages. IMO this is one thing that Jamie Gold did really well when he won his ME. Obviously, I know Jamie is looked down on on 2p2 but it wasn't all luck to get to the top.

2) The fish will hate this change. Can you imagine grinding for a day or two working and toiling to get a decent stack and then some pro who buys in late sits to your left and takes all of your chips. Especially when his 5k is basically chump change to him and you just spent like 2k to buy in and its probably your life savings?!?!? They are going to be pissed!

3) We need to be working for a more strict quidelines in how tourney poker is played and what the tourneys look like. This would not help to achieve that goal.
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07-22-2013 , 07:47 PM
i mean i think this is bad as it clearly riles up the fish but jfc there is some seriously ******ed logic on display ITT.
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07-22-2013 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by actionzip54
I would say that this is EXTREMELY negotive ev for several reasons...

1) One of the main things that really good tourney players do is gamble early in order to get a big chip stack to bully the table during later stages. IMO this is one thing that Jamie Gold did really well when he won his ME. Obviously, I know Jamie is looked down on on 2p2 but it wasn't all luck to get to the top.

2) The fish will hate this change. Can you imagine grinding for a day or two working and toiling to get a decent stack and then some pro who buys in late sits to your left and takes all of your chips. Especially when his 5k is basically chump change to him and you just spent like 2k to buy in and its probably your life savings?!?!? They are going to be pissed!
wait so you think that really good pro's like jaime gold have a big edge because they gamble early and can accumulate a big stack and this helps them win, so it would be bad to not let them accumulate that big stack late in the MTT but rather have to try and run up an avg stack once you hit the money?

and did you really just say that it would suck to grind 2 days make it to the money only to get busted out by a pro who just bought in and paid like 5x what you did?

i mean really? do you even think before you post? ever think maybe it might be a whole lot easier to make it to that point without all the pro's who would otherwise be playing at your table all of day 1?

i mean holy **** there is just some insanely terrible reasoning being put forth here.
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07-22-2013 , 10:20 PM
I think that this is an interesting idea but obv wouldn't want all tournaments like this. The question is what is the price someone buying in late would have to pay where most donks would say "damn if ur willing to pay that much to get in this thing and add to the prize pool go ahead" a good tactic would be to show the payout structure before the late buy ins then after the buy ins the difference. If there is a big jump people would be ok with it.
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07-22-2013 , 10:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast_Prophet
I think that this is an interesting idea but obv wouldn't want all tournaments like this. The question is what is the price someone buying in late would have to pay where most donks would say "damn if ur willing to pay that much to get in this thing and add to the prize pool go ahead" a good tactic would be to show the payout structure before the late buy ins then after the buy ins the difference. If there is a big jump people would be ok with it.
But this is the point...some players make it into the money and get paid based on the prize pool BEFORE these late buy-ins. If they are going to do this, I don't see why they wouldn't just let the top 10% of the field (i.e, everyone who is "in the money") move on to Day 2. The way it is structured now, HALF of all players who cash in the tournament have to accept their payout before the total prize pool can even be accurately estimated. Doesn't make sense at all.
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07-22-2013 , 10:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitty Viola
But this is the point...some players make it into the money and get paid based on the prize pool BEFORE these late buy-ins. If they are going to do this, I don't see why they wouldn't just let the top 10% of the field (i.e, everyone who is "in the money") move on to Day 2. The way it is structured now, HALF of all players who cash in the tournament have to accept their payout before the total prize pool can even be accurately estimated. Doesn't make sense at all.
What if they had it where ppl would get the pay out as listed before the late buy ins then when day 2 starts(no late reg) the next predetermined pay jump is where the money added starts to be added into the payouts.
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07-22-2013 , 11:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitty Viola
I can't think of a reason for the Bike to do this, unless they think they would have trouble meeting the million dollar guarantee (which they never have before). I really hope this doesn't become a pattern for all of their low-buyin tourneys with big guarantees.
$441 Dollars is why the bike is doing this. The bike charges $300 entry fee on the 5K. The bike is also one of the casino that double dips the prize pool. The bike then takes another 3% of the $4700 for another $141 dollars. I imagine they also believe that they will be able to attract another type of player by making it a 5k buyin also. Summary more players more money for the bike.
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07-22-2013 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitty Viola
The way it is structured now, HALF of all players who cash in the tournament have to accept their payout before the total prize pool can even be accurately estimated. Doesn't make sense at all.
But those mincashers weren't playing against the new players. Zero new entrants could show up, 200 could show up, what's the difference if they have already busted?

Once the new players show up, the remaining players essentially divvy up the added money according to (presumably) some sort of formula that raises the remaining prizes, as compensation for the increased competition. It doesn't particularly matter when that happens.
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07-22-2013 , 11:47 PM
Nice post RBK.

Seems this is good for the better players by the looks of this thread.

Interesting wrinkle.
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07-22-2013 , 11:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BustoPro
But those mincashers weren't playing against the new players. Zero new entrants could show up, 200 could show up, what's the difference if they have already busted?

Once the new players show up, the remaining players essentially divvy up the added money according to (presumably) some sort of formula that raises the remaining prizes, as compensation for the increased competition. It doesn't particularly matter when that happens.
ya but what if you get knocked out by one of the late entrants? if they hadnt been allowed to late buy they wouldnt have been able to knock you out and youd still be in. **** youd prolly have won.
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07-23-2013 , 12:12 AM
the real reason its bad is it lets pros avoid the opportunity cost of the time sink it would take to play the whole event if they had to start when everyone else does. there may be some amatures who specifically enter smaller buy in events with the mindset that there wont be a bunch of pros wasting their time on such a small buy in event so they feel as tho the competition wont be as fierce. there might even be beginners who dont feel comfortable playing in bigger buy in events specifically because of all the pros, and they want to learn the game in these smaller buy in events before gradually playing in bigger buy in tourneys when they feel more comfortable. both with their skills and the live setting.

if they know that at some point a bunch of pros are going to swoop in it may dissuade them from playing. obv if this structure is a once in awhile thing thats fine, we dont bitch and moan if there is a super high roller or a turbo event with a structure we dont like we just skip it.

there are more then enough events throughout the year that there is room for all diff types. the key is just not for this to become the standard.

i mean if you think about it logically this is just the exact opposite of a satellite. if people dont have problems with satellites they should have absolutely no issue with this.

all the bs about not understanding how the pay outs work is nonsense. i have absolute faith the payouts will be dealt with in a reasonable and equitable fashion.

the main criteria when considering these new changes tho should always be the longterm health/growth of the game, and the bottom line is regardless of how much sense this idea makes if the end result is recreational players decide not to play because of it, its a bad idea.

there are enough events to appease the pros who dont want to play 7 days in a small buy in MTT, we dont have to make every event desirable/profitable for the MTT grinders.

events like the millionaire maker are great for poker and we need more low cost high reward events to draw out big throngs of amatures and get them hooked on the game.
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07-23-2013 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by riverboatking
the real reason its bad is it lets pros avoid the opportunity cost of the time sink it would take to play the whole event if they had to start when everyone else does. there may be some amatures who specifically enter smaller buy in events with the mindset that there wont be a bunch of pros wasting their time on such a small buy in event so they feel as tho the competition wont be as fierce. there might even be beginners who dont feel comfortable playing in bigger buy in events specifically because of all the pros, and they want to learn the game in these smaller buy in events before gradually playing in bigger buy in tourneys when they feel more comfortable. both with their skills and the live setting.

if they know that at some point a bunch of pros are going to swoop in it may dissuade them from playing. obv if this structure is a once in awhile thing thats fine, we dont bitch and moan if there is a super high roller or a turbo event with a structure we dont like we just skip it.

there are more then enough events throughout the year that there is room for all diff types. the key is just not for this to become the standard.

i mean if you think about it logically this is just the exact opposite of a satellite. if people dont have problems with satellites they should have absolutely no issue with this.

all the bs about not understanding how the pay outs work is nonsense. i have absolute faith the payouts will be dealt with in a reasonable and equitable fashion.

the main criteria when considering these new changes tho should always be the longterm health/growth of the game, and the bottom line is regardless of how much sense this idea makes if the end result is recreational players decide not to play because of it, its a bad idea.

there are enough events to appease the pros who dont want to play 7 days in a small buy in MTT, we dont have to make every event desirable/profitable for the MTT grinders.

events like the millionaire maker are great for poker and we need more low cost high reward events to draw out big throngs of amatures and get them hooked on the game.
+1

/THREAD
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07-23-2013 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar
Without speaking for anyone else and without commenting on the wisdom of this structure in any way, there is an interesting twist to these rules: if you look at the leaflet closely, you get a $3700 WPT seat for qualifying into Day 2 multiple times.

So let's say someone has 5 BB with 15 minutes left in Day 1.

Option 1: likely mincash (we'll be generous and say $1K in equity)

Option 2: pay $5K to get a 40 BB+ stack in Day 2 and a $3700 WPT seat payout

That makes it wildly +EV for all shortstacks on Day 1 to stall and then buy in again.
JUST to CLARIFY.

If a player advances to DAY 2 with any stack, the DAY 2 min cash will be ~$800. Player can BUY-IN to DAY 2 for $5,000 (avg stack or 40BB), minus your min-cash for advancing and forfeiting your stack (~$800), and ~$800 (min-cash) for playing Day-2, the true buy-in would be ~$3,400.
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07-24-2013 , 12:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast_Prophet
I think that this is an interesting idea but obv wouldn't want all tournaments like this. The question is what is the price someone buying in late would have to pay where most donks would say "damn if ur willing to pay that much to get in this thing and add to the prize pool go ahead" a good tactic would be to show the payout structure before the late buy ins then after the buy ins the difference. If there is a big jump people would be ok with it.
A preliminary prize pool payouts will be available prior to start of Day 2. As many Day 2 players that enter will add THAT many MORE minimum cashes to the pay-outs. The additional BUY-INs from DAY-2 entries will be distributed from 1st place to ~36-45th place!
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07-24-2013 , 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitty Viola
But this is the point...some players make it into the money and get paid based on the prize pool BEFORE these late buy-ins. If they are going to do this, I don't see why they wouldn't just let the top 10% of the field (i.e, everyone who is "in the money") move on to Day 2. The way it is structured now, HALF of all players who cash in the tournament have to accept their payout before the total prize pool can even be accurately estimated. Doesn't make sense at all.
Based on a $1-million guarantee, the minimum cash from top 10% to the bubble of day 2 (6%), the min cash can be determined for all tournaments (based on a pre-determined prize-pool payout chart). Keep in mind that for every Day 2 entry we are adding that many more DAY 2 Min cashes as well, which will then distribute the additional buy-ins to 1st place through ~36-45th places.
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07-24-2013 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWedbush
$441 Dollars is why the bike is doing this. The bike charges $300 entry fee on the 5K. The bike is also one of the casino that double dips the prize pool. The bike then takes another 3% of the $4700 for another $141 dollars. I imagine they also believe that they will be able to attract another type of player by making it a 5k buyin also. Summary more players more money for the bike.
Thank you for the breakdown explanation. The numbers you have presented are correct. Let's see how this compares to other casino tournaments. the $441/$5000 is less than 9% "rake" which is more than a percentage LESS than competitive casinos and poker series.
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07-24-2013 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by riverboatking
the real reason its bad is it lets pros avoid the opportunity cost of the time sink it would take to play the whole event if they had to start when everyone else does. there may be some amatures who specifically enter smaller buy in events with the mindset that there wont be a bunch of pros wasting their time on such a small buy in event so they feel as tho the competition wont be as fierce. there might even be beginners who dont feel comfortable playing in bigger buy in events specifically because of all the pros, and they want to learn the game in these smaller buy in events before gradually playing in bigger buy in tourneys when they feel more comfortable. both with their skills and the live setting.

if they know that at some point a bunch of pros are going to swoop in it may dissuade them from playing. obv if this structure is a once in awhile thing thats fine, we dont bitch and moan if there is a super high roller or a turbo event with a structure we dont like we just skip it.

there are more then enough events throughout the year that there is room for all diff types. the key is just not for this to become the standard.

i mean if you think about it logically this is just the exact opposite of a satellite. if people dont have problems with satellites they should have absolutely no issue with this.

all the bs about not understanding how the pay outs work is nonsense. i have absolute faith the payouts will be dealt with in a reasonable and equitable fashion.

the main criteria when considering these new changes tho should always be the longterm health/growth of the game, and the bottom line is regardless of how much sense this idea makes if the end result is recreational players decide not to play because of it, its a bad idea.

there are enough events to appease the pros who dont want to play 7 days in a small buy in MTT, we dont have to make every event desirable/profitable for the MTT grinders.

events like the millionaire maker are great for poker and we need more low cost high reward events to draw out big throngs of amatures and get them hooked on the game.
This will not be the standard for poker tournamenst because it is actually a PATENTED concept where a different buy-in will reflect a different starting stack.
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07-24-2013 , 12:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MO THE BIKE TD
Thank you for the breakdown explanation. The numbers you have presented are correct. Let's see how this compares to other casino tournaments. the $441/$5000 is less than 9% "rake" which is more than a percentage LESS than competitive casinos and poker series.
cmon Mo
ive never seen a $5450
every 5k is $5300 or less, which is 6%.
yours is 4559+441.
that is a lot of rake
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07-24-2013 , 12:39 AM
why is rake in parenthesis?
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07-24-2013 , 11:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MO THE BIKE TD
Thank you for the breakdown explanation. The numbers you have presented are correct. Let's see how this compares to other casino tournaments. the $441/$5000 is less than 9% "rake" which is more than a percentage LESS than competitive casinos and poker series.
Which competitive casinos and tourneys are we referencing?

WSOP 5K is 4.2% Wynn 5k was 3.6% Venetian 5k was 3.3% Bellagio 5k was 3.6%

The Last 2k commerce was 3.85%. Bay 101 7500 was 4.66%
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08-13-2013 , 02:53 AM
Great post and points, riverboatking.

Deoxyribo is correct, and not only is the rake higher than most 5k's but the 4700+300 listing is misleading unless the additional 3% is for dealers/staff only. Is it, Mo? If not, will 3700 re-entry WPT be the same?
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