A few guys were arguing back and fourth so I posted a response to this guys message and figured it might give a few of you guys hope and maybe a few pointers, forgive me if I rambled a bit but its like 5am...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Omaha Chris
This might blow some people's minds, but when there's an actual, significant skill differential between Hero and his opponents (a condition that market efficiency makes impossible among the interchangeable grinders that make up 80% of online poker players), the "sample size" requirement goes way down.
Variance ceases to be much an issue when you play against people who DIDN'T spend the majority of the last decade reading poker books and forums and clawing for razor-thin edges.
You don't need 18 billion hands to know whether you're beating Joe Tourist, Bob the Drunk, Jennifer "Never Played Before", and Ben the Idiot in the Excalibur poker room.
yea your right, beating the live $1-2 and $2-5 games are so easy, and you guys cant think about the bb/100 thing for this argument bc the games play 500-1000bbs deep. Live play is so diff.. you look for totally diff edges, you dont look at a HUD and try to find tight or lose players to counter(who are most likely close to or maybe above your skill level) those are such small edges that pay off small and only after a tun of hands, in live play you sit to the left of the drunk guy who just hit big on the blackjack table and let him pay you off with top pair all night, man im tired and dont feel like explaining everything but the competition is so much easier.
You guys are gonna have to forget a little bit about how far you have dissected this simple game and just go sole read the local hairdresser, the rich business man, the drunk douchbag and the old grandma at your local casino. Example-I made 2 buy-ins in a 7 hour session a couple months ago without ever holding better than 2pair.. this is almost impossible to do online considering the buy-in was $1.5k and the game was $2-5.. the games are just that soft... you can be totally card dead and do fine.
And as far as ppl saying that you will not see enough hands, and the swings will be crazy, well thats a good argument but playing that deep allows for a lot more poker to be played each hand(if you will), you will not be all in on the flop against a flush draw 5 times an hour, your gonna have to actually fold your set when that spade hits the river.. (You can say what you want ab that example but w.e. you get the point) but the problem will be that the low stakes grinders will not have the roll to play live considering the standard raise will be often be 7-13 times the bb. $1-2 might be closer to $3-6 or $5-10 online. And the $2-5 games can get real jucy, iv been on the right of guys holding 5k chips and 10k wads, gross when your buying in for less than 2k
I wouldn't be a great one to take advice from considering how often I go busto on the blackjack table trying to count cards and having many 10k losing sessions on the baccarat table but a few things id advise would be- forget ab steeling blinds(risk 15 to win 3?), forget ab raising with ATC just because you have position, for get ab 3betting light bc someone opens a lot (they WILL call) and they WILL NOT fold QJ on a J high flop when you cbet, table selection is VERY important (always take breaks and check on the other games and ask for a table change if their is no action at your table or you spot some fish sitting deep), and bluffing is less profitable unless you are sure its a great spot, these people want to pay you off so wait untill you have it and let them.
been playing live consistently for ab 7-8 yrs, all im saying is that its a totally diff skill set and if you guys can master it and be able to
look at someone and know where they are at- you will do great live. Simply because you guys have so much more knowledge of the game than 75% of the live grinders and 99.99% more than the guy who plays once a year when he is on vacation.
p.s. wanted to add this but I forgot- their are several grinders at my local casinos (Biloxi) who literally sit there all day and wait for the nuts, these guys may only play 5-10 hands past the flop during a 10hr session, sounds supper crazy but they have consistently made a living for several years now, this would never work online and I have folded KK to a small 3bet against one of them(yea he had AA, his entire 3betting range against another good player) so they dont get much action from other regs but it doesn't matter because the tourists and vacationers will pay them off all day long.. and he could have laid down those aces(against some 60yr old guy) when they flopped a set because you can see NUTS written all over there face when they donk lead into you on 2 streets.. Im just pointing out that there are many ways to beat these games but it comes down to making reads, something a lot of ppl laugh at Helmuth for bragging about but its very true.. Ask guys like durrr and Antonius who crushed the online scene more than anyone alive and they will tell you they make much more $ live than online now and it is much easier for them as well once they got use to it..(source- high stakes poker and PAD they brought it up in a few shows and interviews)
Anyways good luck at the tables and I hope everything gets worked out for you guys but trust me you can pwn the live games once you get use to it..
Last edited by gambitz101; 04-19-2011 at 05:59 AM.
Reason: bc i cant spell
