*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage I; Patrik Antonius - IN RUNNING THREAD *** - Page 93 - Poker News

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*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage I; Patrik Antonius - IN RUNNING THREAD ***

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06-11-2009 , 08:44 AM

#2301

chilin_dude

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 11,770

Sick session.

06-11-2009 , 08:50 AM

#2302

MBouzy

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 686

Need more epic sessions like the last one!!!

06-11-2009 , 12:31 PM

#2303

THEFLY____21

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 499

Quote:

Originally Posted by David123

Btw ppl; the lead isnt that big, and even tho im rooting for PA in this one, he might lose the lead in 1(!) or 2 sessions easy. and theres a long way to go yet.

im hoping PA increases his lead to 7-800 in the next 5k hand, i think the swings will increase even more the longer we go in that case. durrr will be pressing even more,
and as we know PA doesnt really back down in omaha.

Spot on analysis, can you see the future

Quote:

Originally Posted by hornet77

Do you guys agree that this is not a fair challenge at all since durrrr is having the edges and everything. Its early days but durrr is playing hes game that includes winnings by every gutshot he is used to take?

This just tilts me reading it

06-11-2009 , 01:41 PM

#2304

CRUDEFINDER

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 6,245

I don't think PA was even playing. I think someone hacked his account.

06-11-2009 , 04:05 PM

#2305

ZengZang

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 338

Insane stuff wonder what will be seeing around 40k hands...

06-11-2009 , 04:11 PM

#2306

DC11GTR

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 14,747

Wow. That's just amazing.

06-11-2009 , 04:26 PM

#2307

youngtajplayer

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 582

Thataboy... now we got a match.. historic if it were to come down to allin pot on the last hand..

06-11-2009 , 04:28 PM

#2308

David123

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,818

yes I can see the future THE FLY .

seriously though, this makes the challenge more exciting and looking forward to when we reach the 35-45 K mark to see the psychological impact(if any)
maybe not the money is the big subject here, but pride and competitiveness. i know i can blow 10K playing weird to get the no1 spot in a rake race for example, lol. .

06-11-2009 , 04:29 PM

#2309

CRUDEFINDER

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 6,245

It looked like durrrr was playing himself....A doppleganger

06-11-2009 , 04:29 PM

#2310

rocketsfan4lyfe

adept

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,041

i wish they could up the stakes if they actually tied it at one point. i'm sure they both would agree to that.

06-11-2009 , 04:38 PM

#2311

Spurious

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 18,593

Jesus, sick!

06-11-2009 , 04:38 PM

#2312

vmendi123

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 89

Quote:

Originally Posted by CRUDEFINDER

I don't think PA was even playing. I think someone hacked his account.

This. Never seen PA play that badly before. But, ah well...good for us dwan fanboys.

06-11-2009 , 05:01 PM

#2313

2J4U

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by CRUDEFINDER

I don't think PA was even playing. I think someone hacked his account.

There's an interesting hypothetical scenario:

If PA tells durrrr he got hacked, does

a) durrrr give back the money?
b) the challenge revert to its status before the session?

Obviously, that's almost certainly not the case. I think it's an interesting question anyway.

06-11-2009 , 05:19 PM

#2314

random hater

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2J4U

Who would just give back the money?
Would need proof seeing as there would be 2.4million on the line.
I wouldn't trust someone's word from my own family on that one* let alone someone I just e-know to be a swell dude.

*obv I'd be more inclined to believe I was being robbed with my family.

06-11-2009 , 05:24 PM

#2315

CRUDEFINDER

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 6,245

Obviously I was only kidding about PA getting hacked...

06-11-2009 , 05:37 PM

#2316

***Ryan***

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 630

so PA plays badly for ONE SESSION and the durr fanboys now believe that durrr isn t a massive underdog.......................................... .lol

06-11-2009 , 05:47 PM

#2317

Gin 'n Tonic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by ***Ryan***

so PA plays badly for ONE SESSION and the durr fanboys now believe that durrr isn t a massive underdog.......................................... .lol

This, but PA should have bailed from the session earlier imo - he must have known that he wasn't on his 'A' game.

I agree that TD is the underdog here, but it's a fine line and not 'massive'. PA can't afford to blow another $300k when he's obviously playing below par.

Not just about skill, but also discipline.

06-11-2009 , 05:47 PM

#2318

vmendi123

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 89

Quote:

Originally Posted by ***Ryan***

so durrr ran bad for ONE SESSION and the PA fanboys believed that durrr was a massive underdog.......................................... .lol

fyp

06-11-2009 , 06:09 PM

#2319

David123

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,818

Quote:

Originally Posted by vmendi123

I'm gay

fyp sir.

06-11-2009 , 06:09 PM

#2320

TimmayB

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 12,086

This message is hidden because ***Ryan*** is on your ignore list.

It's so much easier this way.

06-11-2009 , 06:10 PM

#2321

lennie257

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,371

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmayB

It's so much easier this way.

amen bro

06-11-2009 , 06:17 PM

#2322

fabadam

reading your numbers

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,383

LOL at everyone saying everything's turned around here and PA want's himself. These guys are getting it all-in every flop where it's draw vs made hand and the equity is 60-40 or similar.

We have HU PLO here with two super-aggro very strong players here. If one of them has an edge, it's like 2 BB/100 with a 60 BB/100 standard variance. Even over 50k hands that boils down to at best something like 55-45 for the best player. Which means durrrr is still maintaining his status as a prop bet fish.

06-11-2009 , 06:35 PM

#2323

blah_blah

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,659

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabadam

We have HU PLO here with two super-aggro very strong players here. If one of them has an edge, it's like 2 BB/100 with a 60 BB/100 standard variance. Even over 50k hands that boils down to at best something like 55-45 for the best player. Which means durrrr is still maintaining his status as a prop bet fish.

A 2BB/100 edge with a 60BB/100 standard variance would give durrrr (or PA, for that matter) approximately a 77% chance of winning the match.

Their expected winnings would be 1000BB = 800k, so their EV for the match would then be 800k+500k*0.77-1500k*0.23 = +840k in durrrr's case, or +1840k in PAs case. So if durrrr's edge IS this big, then it's definitely not fishy. On the other hand, if he has no edge he's giving up a million in EV, minimum.

06-11-2009 , 07:46 PM

#2324

PokerStarSteve

adept

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 933

Quote:

Originally Posted by blah_blah

A 2BB/100 edge with a 60BB/100 standard variance would give durrrr (or PA, for that matter) approximately a 77% chance of winning the match.

Their expected winnings would be 1000BB = 800k, so their EV for the match would then be 800k+500k*0.77-1500k*0.23 = +840k in durrrr's case, or +1840k in PAs case. So if durrrr's edge IS this big, then it's definitely not fishy. On the other hand, if he has no edge he's giving up a million in EV, minimum.

I'm a statistics fish. Can you explain this number?

06-11-2009 , 08:16 PM

#2325

blah_blah

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,659

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerStarSteve

I'm a statistics fish. Can you explain this number?

by the central limit theorem, the probability is approximately P(X>0), where X is a normally distributed random variable with mean 2*500 and standard deviation 60*sqrt(500). there are lots of tools (numerical integrators, statistics software) that can compute this for you.

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