If you're right (not saying you are not), they might as well flip a coin. When the match is over, the std deviation and variance will be easily calculated, and we'll know how the ultimate winner compares to that range.

graph outcomes when the SD/100 is 70-80bb, and the WR is 1-3bb, see how often you can lose. theres an excel file around somewhere that has all this setup but its pretty LOL

you really need something more like 300k hands before you get a 95% confidence interval AFAIK

That's a much better answer.

Thank you.

The whole point is that this won't settle a damned thing...basically the only way it would is if one of them won by 4mil or something. Pretty much no matter what happens, unless it's really obvious that one of them pwned the other regardless of final results, nothing will have been settled. There's more to running good than just all in EV and SD and such...hand distributions including coolers won't sort themselves out in 50k hands. If one of them gets more best vs 2nd best hands, he's going to destroy the other regardless of how well the loser played. Knowing the math behind randomness would help you a lot here....

And yet that's only to compute winrate...not comparative winrate between two giants. The likely longterm winrate of whoever wins is <1ptbb. This throws the number of required hands for statistical confidence WAY up. We're talking well over 300k hands.

whats durr doing in boston?no tournys running. with roomies?

WTF you talkin about?

it's gotta be good for the game for durr to win imo

I think he just lives there part of the time. Owns a home there if I am not mistaken...

lol yea hes such easy money

it doesn't really matter who wins for the poker economy, both are amazing players.

Pretty sure that's NOT what he was saying...

as I understood from the sticky they agreed on around 5-6am EST today...so ten mins time haha. Unless I am wrong

HU is lower variance the higher number of hands played and higher variance in the shorter term. 50k would be the former in this case. If you can not figure out why, then you probably shouldn't be arguing with the internet about how they are wrong.


and btw you were wrong about the "reading comprehension FTL". Not sure why it tilts me so much to see someone making insults at someone's comprehension when they are the one reading it wrong.

This is only true if 1 player has a big edge on another player in hu as winrates are usually larger than 6 max. That doesn't apply in this matchup.

That's what they said on the tables yesterday but no sign of either player yet. Patrik was playing someone else about 6 hours ago (which was evening for him in Thailand).

i'm already giving up on this challenge and i'm not even playing.

Patrik was always going to be the most unreliable of the three - DB puts by far the biggest volume in and Ivey seems overall more organised, it will finish I'm sure of it but time-wise he should have played Patrik last imo.

So I guess this challenge is over now. No action in days.

Congrats on the win durrrr.

lol
I don't think that it is over. There will be action soon for sure.

holy **** they haven't played in 3 days in a challenge that's going to take at least 2 months, time to call it done

How about HH's only?

I'm suggesting that the true winrate of either PA over Durrr or Durrr over PA is going to be small...that means that the required number of hands for statistical confidence is huge. That's all I was saying there.

The only reason HU can be lower variance than 6max is that there's a sustainable higher winrate. In which case, in the longer term, I absolutely agree. The biggest variable in variability is winrate.... The higher a sustainable winrate, the lower variance. The problem is that 50k hands of HU PLO is not enough to flesh out a true winrate. It's not even enough to be more than (roughly) 90% confident in 6max NLHE! So, that alone is my argument and there's math to back it up...then add to it my other argument that the likely WR of either of these guys in this match is small, makes the required number of hands being >>50k stronger.

durrr should've made some rule like "when a player doesn't show up online ready to play for five days he'll loose the challenge"
i think durrr clearly want to do some major sessions every day so they create some real sick dynamic

talking out of your ass like a true NVGtard