Your biggest underestimation is how little variance matters over 25k hands when there's such a huge gap in expected win rate. That's why people have posted results of variance simulations.

If you and me roll a dice 25k times, it doesn't matter that much how good you run if you win on 1 and 2 and I win on 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Well, that sucks. RIP indeed.

I'm willing to bet up to $10 that they are not going to play 25k hands

25k hands HU is like 80k hands 6max for reference

Here's the GG Poker YouTube stream embed for Round 3.

Action is scheduled to resume today at 2:30pm Las Vegas Time/5:30pm Eastern (in about 5 hours).

Lol, of course. Brain fart in the wee hours with one eye open.

But even at $2M, the origin of the funds can be an issue given Bilzerian's alleged finance issues and the allegations of using Ignite funds for personal expenses.

They were running simulations based on a historic win rate of 10 or 15 bb per 100..then a couple posters pointed out those rates were highly inflated..

Sick reads? That's so 2000s. Balanced ranges happened since then. If you can put a good player on a hand with any kind of consistency, that player isn't so good.

So that's how I knew DN had 97s

calling lumberjacks tree surgeons is the best idea I have ever heard

ur right, tho. Doug doesn't have any soul-read compilations of him beating the breaks off of VFW grandpas, reading their involuntary facial tics from all of the agent orange they absorbed, or straight up owning over the road truck drivers on the tail end of a cross country haul meth-bender sitting at the table not completely sure that they are not at the golden corral, and that they didn't just pay the waitress that they were sexually harassing when they get stacked, and that it's not time to leave and go drop the hammer on their come down shot in a motel 8 bathroom. this is where the true skill lies.

That's so 2000s. Nowadays, aunties can have balls too. Where have you been?

Lol. Uh, lets just go with the better players have balanced ranges thing.

By the end of this Negreanu can just self-identify as being up money instead of down and nobody has the right to argue!

I don't think anyone who knows what they're talking about wrt HU said they were highly inflated

after what we've seen from dnegs I think it might be closer to 15bb/100 atm than 10, we'll see if dnegs improve over time

yeah +1

Those numbers came from Doug saying eh had a 10bb/100 approximate winrate in his last few years of play, where he primarily played other (elite) regs.

HU winrates can easily be in the 20s/100 depending on how weak your opponent is.

Wouldn't be surprised if Doug actually has a true winrate of more like 15-20 here tbh

Time for some predictions for tonights session.

I predict: Daniel sucks out in huge cooler pot (balancing his all in EV), and ends up +7k for the session, despite being down 135k early on.

Any suggestions for a different stream, with more entertaining commentators? I can just mute these guys again if necessary, but would like to watch someone else.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDVA...ature=youtu.be

highlights of the gg stream with kaki and kev

Which decent (or better) HU player said that?

And to clarify, variance is obviously a big factor for the result in bb/100 no matter the gap in win rate. But it becomes a small factor if you measure the final result in win/lose only.

FWIW, since they only play 2 hours a day I expect DN to sit down with his coaches between every session to analyze what happened and try to remove some of the bigger issues. If they play for 3-4 month and DN keeps working he should be able to make tremendous improvements over the course of the match. Right now it looks like he doesn't even know what hands should be in his betting range on the turn.

Polk has a stream too.

this is almost irrelevant as doug will be adjusting to DNs adjustments. Sure he wont lose as much but he still has no shot.

This is a none event isnt it, what Dnegs was thinking about taking the challenge is any bodies guess.

Doug can't adjust in an equal manner to DN making less mistakes. That doesn't change the fact that DN has very little chance of winning but the margin should get smaller.

Imagine getting into a free throw shooting contest with Steph Curry. He's going to make 90%+ from free throw 1 and that won't change much all the way to free throw 25k. But if you start out at 20% and keep training every day for 3-4 months, there's a very good shot at major improvements. Are you going to end up at even 80%? Obviously not but getting from 20% to 30% would be a 50% improvement.