Not true. You can visit Wikipedia's page of deaths in 2020, and note when Covid is mentioned if that was a contributor. It's not as common a cause of death as it was a month ago. Most people are dying of the usual things: cancer, strokes, heart attacks, and having their necks kneeled on by cops.

Some US data still needs to be confirmed (Covid deaths are likely to have been undercounted), but the CDC graphs already show significant excess deaths (greater than the average for the time of year) in the past couple of months, as you'll notice from the right-hand side of this three-and-a-half-year graph:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
You might notice there were also some excess deaths in the Flu epidemic of 2018, but the spike there is nowhere near as bad as 2020's.

Many States have had what you might call an insignificant increase in their usual mortality numbers so far, and around 55,000 people a week continued to die without having Covid mentioned on their death certificates, but I think everyone saw the temporary morgues and mass graves in NYC that were needed as a result of massive amounts of excess deaths in a short time period. Covid was as least partially (but often directly) responsible for around 100,000 deaths nationally. But people are dying of other things too and are being counted separately. Obviously.

That's a lot of words for trooper. Might want to pull out the crayons instead

arty or anyone else, is there a good resource for # of excess deaths in a database somewhere? i've found navigating cdc or other resources to be a huge pain in the ass on that front.

also,

texas (to me) is starting to look troublesome





in my opinion the spread (and the excess deaths) can be attributed to 3 commonalities

1) how much public transit is being used
2) how many households are multigenerational
3) how much time is being spent indoors without a mask

i think you're gonna see a lot of these protests states not actually get hit as bad in the first week or two, because most of the affected are young and will be asymptomatic. from there it's a question of, can they chill out for a week or two and not spread it. because if they don't, we're gonna see the case load increase probably 3-6 weeks from now as opposed to the expected 10 days.

my theory on texas being the first state to have a meaningful 2nd wave (assuming this continues) is theyve got 450k multigenerational households. people are catching it from local, from mexico (San diego has a ton of border cases and I assume that's the case in Texas as well) and then people go home and since 9 people live in the house, all 9 are getting it.

‘Cruise Ships on Land’: As Las Vegas Reopens, a Huge Test for Casinos

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/u...s-casinos.html

"While the contact-tracing challenges faced by Las Vegas are extreme, they highlight larger systemic problems in monitoring the coronavirus across the country."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asym...twitter%7Cmain

Now the WHO is saying asymptomatic spread is extremely rare. Coming from health officials who have to cover their butts, to me it means almost never happens but they can't rule it out.

Also to me, and you guys know what side I fall on the whole lockdown thing, it means after the initial lockdown. All it would have taken is 2-3 weeks or quarantine, after that if you have no symptoms and haven't been around anyone with symptoms you are free to do whatever you want and everything , everywhere could have reopened. Maybe even a couple extra weeks to be extra safe and be sure hospitals were fine. This is going on about 3 months now, with the seconds two months doing nothing but costing people money, experiences and whatever other negative effects occurred from shutting the states down.

I heard that too and thought the same thing. I don’t think they really know.

People more knowledgeable than me have reported that CNBC misinterpreted the (poorly worded) WHO press release. Apparently today's WHO report uses the word "asymptomatic" to mean anyone who never shows any symptoms, whereas in the last six months the word "asymptomatic" (at least in the United States) has been used to include both anyone who never shows any symptoms and anyone who has yet to show symptoms (sometimes referred to as "pre-symptomatic").

The experts have maintained for many months that a significant percentage of people who contract Covid "caught it" from a person who was not exhibiting symptoms at the time (the first person had contracted the virus but has not yet begun to exhibit symptoms). And according to these experts today's WHO report does not refute that despite the misleading headlines and news stories. Hopefully clarification on this important issue will be forthcoming.

I think you're right. I don't think it is that cut and dry.

When I saw the article was from CNBC, one of the fear mongering networks I was thinking, holy **** it must be true. If it had been FOX I would have been more skeptical.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Pain it may be, but it's also the source for the data. A click on the 'excess deaths' link on that page brings up a bar graph of weekly normal and 2020 reported all-cause deaths that Arty McFly posted earlier. The data are incomplete for the last 2 weeks in May, and are still being added to as compilation of death counts lags actual deaths by a few weeks.

The CDC website is a confusing mess, innit? I don't know of a particular downloadable database, but a team at the Financial Times has been collating data and has some excellent infographics for excess deaths in multiple countries and even cities. (The UK has the highest excess deaths per million of population, and New York City's are among the worst of cities in the world. For some reason NYC's numbers are apparently not included in the CDC graph I posted, although figures for elsewhere in New York State were.)

EDIT: The excess death data used by the FT is available on Github, but I have no idea how to use it. https://github.com/Financial-Times/c...mortality-data

I agree with your assessment that Texas is likely to see solid growth in case numbers. The other main states to watch out for are Florida, California, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, Alabama, and Arkansas. Those are the states that are estimated to currently have the highest R_t numbers by this AI-driven model.

This is not correct, the CDC United States graph absolutely includes NYC. The disclaimer says "Data for New York excludes New York City." This just means New York and New York City are reported separately, as if it's 2 states.

xpost from CC venues for Encore in Boston. paging *TT* for Boston thoughts (assuming he is still there)

EBH cancelled their popular weekend and special event poker tournaments due to "parking issues". And that was a month prior to the COVID shutdown.

I don't get the feeling the higher ups in that establishment care very much for poker. EBH has struggled financially and I believe they are focusing all their efforts on higher profit services. Its kind of a shame. There is obviously a huge demand for poker in the Northeast and EBH could have easily become the mecca for poker in that region, if not the entire east coast, if they wanted to. But it doesn't appear they are in any hurry to become so.

The many other smaller poker rooms in the region are thankful, though.

parisron, what happened to your updates? Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood Florida is reopening on Friday June 12th and there will be poker. I couldn't find how many per table though and if there will be plexiglass.

I saw that, didn't thing it was that big of a deal since there are so many openings all over US now. A big deal if you live in S. Florida I guess.

I think I saw somewhere in Florida is already going back to 9 handed.

Andy Bloch Projects Another ‘COVID Wave’ in Nevada Following Casinos Reopening

https://www.cardschat.com/news/andy-...-nevada-90833/

Well ok!

I must admit my resolve is waning. Still gonna give it at least another 7-10 days.

Not much meat on the bones, other than Andy is a "data guy".

The article kind of misses an important point. The casino workers involved are relatively well covered from a masks and gloves perspective, although they will get greater exposure to more people over time than will any casual visitor.

Nevertheless, I also would be concerned also about transmission among Las Vegas visitors, who are way less likely than Nevadans generally and casino workers specifically, to practice appropriate social distancing, masks, or other measures to lessen transmission. They then fly back to wherever they came from, bringing home a whole new source of infection.

Buddy Guy wants to know, is it official that the BS starting July 1st online will replace the WSOP this year? If that’s so, this really saddens Buddy Guy. Maybe Venetian will host its deepstacks this fall for Buddy Guy to play in.

In other news, rain is wet!

No, this does not mean WSOP live will not happen this year. I think I saw they are trying for November IIRC.