Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Checkmaker
yeah everyone should fold more rivers but this hand is not that bad. also women tend to call more since a lot of men inevitably try to run over them. so consider her experience has been calling is more profitable than it is for you or me. hence why i would never set out trying to bluff a woman.
I think the "value" bet when checked to her on the river is the major error.
She is basically beating all of the hands that can't call such as one pair busted flush draw hands, and one pair missed gutshot hands. (obv. now technically 2 pairs with the board pairing the 9)
I don't think he can call with any of those hands because when she follows her flop C bet by betting the turn it has taken a big part of AK, AQ and KQ out of her range unless it is AcKc as I believe she is checking back the turn with those hands, and sometimes also/often with AcKc as well to protect her equity and showdown value. (he holds the Qc of course)
So I think the only hands he can call with on the river are TT/JJ/QQ and even then he may pass if her river bet is too big. So for me she value owned herself by betting in the first place on the river, and if she wanted to get a light or lightish call from hands she was beating then she should have bet smaller.
NLHE is not my best game, so I'm totally happy to hear and accept that my analysis is wrong and be corrected but I don't get her river bet, unless there is an unknown dynamic going on, e.g. she bet because she thinks it will induce a shove from him with one of his one pair missed draw hands. Even if that were the case, the river bet is still too big because he is less likely to get a check raise shove bluff through giving her good pot odds than against a smaller river bet by her which gives her worse pot odds to call the shove.
Last edited by SageDonkey; 12-18-2016 at 01:15 AM.