Can Charlie Carrel beat 500z? (Tweets about prop bet) - Page 10 - Poker News

If you think he can't beat 500 Zoom then you should be happy to bet on any reasonable number of hands. Expecting him to grind out 200k hands for some dumb challenge at stakes that barely matter to him when he is so busy doing other things is ridiculous.

Except he initiated the challenge after having his ego hurt...

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02-26-2021 , 09:22 PM

#227

Dreamer

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 674

I think the point is most people would agree that this bet looks a flip at best, which I'm sure CC knows, so who cares.

It doesn't prove he can beat 500z even if he wins the bet, nor does it prove he cant either even if he loses over such small samples.

Maybe the bet should be changed to. Bet 200K if I can run good over a small sample.

IMHO a better bet would be for him to play 5K hands of 500z
Then hand over the hand histories to five top winning players who play 500z and let them judge based on the HHs if they think he is a winning player long term.

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02-26-2021 , 10:02 PM

#228

garbagetime

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 165

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Blonde

Except he initiated the challenge after having his ego hurt...

If he can't get action on even money, that still saves his ego. Because it means that people do not think that he is a losing player at 500z.

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02-26-2021 , 11:14 PM

#229

GazzyB123

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 5,982

25k just isn't a sample.

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02-26-2021 , 11:22 PM

#230

garbagetime

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 165

Quote:

Originally Posted by GazzyB123

25k just isn't a sample.

Hi Gazzy,

Do you think that losing players are going to be +EV over 25k hands? If not, then would it not make cents to bet against such a losing player winning over 25k hands at even moneys?

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02-26-2021 , 11:58 PM

#231

THEGRID

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 10

Man this guy really is the worst. Doing some dodgy bankroll challenge (doesn’t even track results, just seems to write it down on a notepad and expect you to believe he’s won another 5 buyins, all the while using the same balance to play 5knl and $500 spins) and spouting absolute nonsense. Claiming everyone who disagrees with him is toxic or insecure when he in fact has to be the most insecure person I’ve ever come across. I genuinely think he has a lot of severe issues. In some ways it’s harsh to hate on him because he’s such a deluded guy but he really is completely intolerable.

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02-26-2021 , 11:58 PM

#232

_red_dog

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 495

Quote:

Originally Posted by garbagetime

Hi Gazzy,

Do you think that losing players are going to be +EV over 25k hands? If not, then would it not make cents to bet against such a losing player winning over 25k hands at even moneys?

If CC has a winrate of -1bb/100 then he will lose over 25k hands around 56-57% of the time. So seems like a fine bet at even money to bet against.

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02-27-2021 , 12:24 AM

#233

Jimmy Busto

banned

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 655

A losing player could crush over 25k hands. Get real.

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02-27-2021 , 12:33 AM

#234

garbagetime

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 165

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy Busto

A losing player could crush over 25k hands. Get real.

Hi Jimmy,

I don't think anyone is saying otherwise.

But the odds of the losing player winning over the 25k hands is still less than 50%, therefore the bet is a good one at even money.

Just liek red dog explains:

Quote:

Originally Posted by _red_dog

If CC has a winrate of -1bb/100 then he will lose over 25k hands around 56-57% of the time. So seems like a fine bet at even money to bet against.

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02-27-2021 , 12:37 AM

#235

Tuma

Worships Amon-Ra

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 16,466

Charlie looked beastly at 200z earlier today. the gap between limits must be huge.

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02-27-2021 , 05:07 AM

#236

_red_dog

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 495

He offered 25k hands, wants to bet even money. If he is a loser betting against at even money gives said bettor a huge edge. I agree the sample will prove nothing, but do you want to make a point or you want to win money?

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02-27-2021 , 11:13 AM

#237

LivingOffEV

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 270

Quote:

Originally Posted by garbagetime

[ ] I said I think he can't beat 500z
[ ] I said I expected him to play 200k hands

Great comprehension.

It's irrelevant whether I think he can or can't beat 500z. The point is, if he wants to prove he can then more hands (50-100k) is better for him. Playing 15-25k hands proves very little and he knows that by offering this people are less likely to take him up on it (so he can save face).

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02-27-2021 , 02:26 PM

#238

ddn

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 231

Lots of people talk **** about Charlie but his results speak for themselves. Despite what this forum may lead you to believe, strictly following preflop ranges and attempting to mimic postflop sims isn't the only way to make money playing poker.

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02-27-2021 , 03:32 PM

#239

TreadLightly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,711

Quote:

Originally Posted by ddn

What are his online cash results?

The $100-10k challenge has been going on for what has to be at least 2 years now right?

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02-27-2021 , 08:51 PM

#240

Halo_P1

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 104

Still willing to bet against at evens for whatever amount of hands he ends up agreeing to versus anyone wanting to take his side here. Don't have all this flex money but Ill throw 500 bucks on it.

I still doubt he actually goes through with it. I don't think he wanted the action. Kind of like a lot of people here making claims on both sides here with nothing to back it up.

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02-27-2021 , 09:13 PM

#241

t3hbandit

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 6,259

Charlie has a history of saying silly **** and then getting hysterical when called out. Making a challenge to the poker world on how you could beat 500z and then blocking most of the action or not agreeing to even the most common sense terms like a reasonable sample size is fairly LOL worthy.

No one should waste energy going back and forth with Charlie he just craves attention.

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02-28-2021 , 01:17 AM

#242

TroothSayer

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by THEGRID

This is the most accurate assessment of CC I’ve seen. Anyone worth his salt can see right thru his bullshit; he is the definition of miserable

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02-28-2021 , 01:18 AM

#243

TroothSayer

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by ddn

Hi Charlie

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02-28-2021 , 06:17 AM

#244

JayJee

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 121

It is so damn obvious that Charlie would beat 500z I don't even know how people can think he is not better than the average 500z player

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02-28-2021 , 08:28 AM

#245

TPLancaster

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 8

This is what is annoying me about him. He preaches all this stuff about ego but then he offers up a challenge because his ego got dented. When people talk about it in his stream, a converstaion he started btw, he gets angry and tells people to check their ego. The irony is amazing.

Seems like a classic case of rich person guilt peddling when they are just as bad in reality.

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02-28-2021 , 08:35 AM

#246

Esa_Perse

banned

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 1,850

Quote:

Originally Posted by TroothSayer

This is the most accurate assessment of CC I’ve seen. Anyone worth his salt can see right thru his bullshit; he is the definition of miserable

Good god this is so sad. You created a new account just to bash some random dude playing cards in the internets.

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03-01-2021 , 04:13 AM

#247

georgelboss

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 291

I've watched Charlie's streams several times and I think he's definitely beating z100, IMO at least (it might be variance thought..). To be honest, this style of play is slightly better than the GTO approach for micro/small stakes (I've heard that from MMASherdog as well). That being said, I doubt this would work for him at z200+

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03-01-2021 , 04:30 AM

#248

Helllsreal

adept

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 778

Quote:

Originally Posted by georgelboss

So based on a few hundred hands u saw from him you can now tell that he is beating 100z but probably not 200z? Ok.

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03-01-2021 , 04:50 AM

#249

georgelboss

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 291

That's my opinion, of course I might be wrong. And this assumption is not based only on the few hundred hands I saw him play. I've heard from many z500 players (here on 2+2 or on various streams) that there is a big skill gap between z100 and z200. This made me to believe that Charlie's exploitative game style will be less effective at z200+

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03-01-2021 , 08:15 AM

#250

garbagetime

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 165

Still amazes me that people think Charlie can't beat 500z. I kinda wish he'd just give up on all the "more important" stuff and make a 200k-hand even-money bet with a 1+ mil side-bet. Pump out 4k hands a day. Have it over with in a couple of months.

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