cansomeone explain this, I dont get it

Doesnt it mean u will have always odds to raise it if it folds that much?

I see the limit hold'em games are still good

it's gotta be rigged some way... otherwise why would they offer it at the casino. somebody out there would get an edge on it if it weren't rigged.

+1M

This is the smart Q to ask.

Imagine a NLHE bot that deals you AA and deals the bot KK every single hand, and that you get it all-in preflop for 100BB every single time. You should be winning ~80% of those hands, and be well on your way to that sick house in Thailand, right? But you notice that the bot is running WAY above EV against you, and after 10,000 hands you're a slight loser.

You run screaming to the NV Gaming Commission that the game is rigged because you should be an 80/20 favorite every hand. The NGC laughs at you and tells you that it's paying out $0.97 on the dollar just like it's supposed to.

IOW, might it not be the case that you're simply playing against a slot machine gussied up to look like a hold'em poker bot?

EDIT: The above has got to have been addressed in that long Sklansky thread about this bot, I'd imagine -- anyone know what the consensus was? The more I think about it, the more i HAVE to think that the above theory is a better approximation of what's going on than the theory that it's actually an exceptionally advanced poker bot playing an advanced AI strategy and capable of holding its own against top LHE competition. The logic to code a bot that simply pays out a predetermined percentage, notwithstanding that some of its plays will seem super super super fishy seems orders of magnitude simpler.

but its not dealing you kk and itself aa every time and that makes a difference.

meaning that if it does have an intrinsic 3% edge cus it was programmed to have that then it must play well enough to make sure that the player only has a 2% edge on it in an even game. I would say that that is pretty sophisticated especially if they made it 200-400.

it must have a really big edge or they must be very confident that no one will be able to gain a bigger edge (from skill ) than the machine already has intrinsically.

this is all assuming that the machine is programmed to have an edge from the actual cards that get dealt. if not, then its obv really sophisticated

hmmm I think you might have been talking about an edge much bigger than 3%. if so, then all i said isnt worth much and this machine is just a standard slot machine.

Good luck to anyone who thinks they can beat a machine! Take a look around next time you're in a casino. See all those MACHINES? That's what pays the bills! Keep playing and the machine will get your money. Always does and it always will. Bot my ass, you're playing another machine with different window dressing. Have a nice day.

the thing is... VP is really heavily regulated and monitored. what the casinos have done to counter act this regulations and factor in the appropriate skewing of wins towards the casino is to skew the payout structure. By doing this, they control the loss/payout... next time you are in a casino.. take a look at the payout structure ON EVERY MACHINE YOU SIT AT. using the "jacks or better" as a baseline, you will clearly see that all "JoB" machines are not created equal in as far as payout structure is concerned.

you need to take a look at the flush and boat payouts the get an idea of the equity that you can earn, I have seen as good as 10/6... A great machine is 9/6... an average machine is a 7/5 or lower... the worst I have seen is a 6/5... meaning, that for every coin you add, you get 6 for a FH and 5 for a Flush.

In this way, casinos control win/loss statements... by disbursing the different machines across the casino floor in different volumes.

I don't really think the HU LHE can work in the same fashion because...well... it's heads up.

You're thinking of a poker edge. The machine knows your hand, if it knows you hand it can pay appropriately.

Should be end of thread but I reckon it will go on for a few more pages.

i don't trust casino machines, always rigged in favor of the casino. why bother playing

Is Aria the only casino that has this? What limits do they have it from?

This is just dirty. Corrupting a game of skill to make it appear legit is wrong on so many levels. I can't even blame people who think poker players must be slimy anymore. There is just so much ridiculous crap. If it's straight up and beatable then my bad.

Bellagio, Cosmoplitan, and Red Rock have it. I'm up about 150 big bets over a small sample and didn't have any previous HU limit Holdem experience, but a few of my friends are up a decent amount over a bigger sample than mine and are convinced the bot plays well but is nevertheless beatable for a modest amount with expert play. I'm not convinced I have an edge yet so I'm playing small until I feel more confident after a bigger sample
size.

This makes it a superbot and undetectable.

It wouldn't be there on the casino floor if this were the case.

If you can break even, does that mean you are losing since HIV's fingers hit the wrong buttons every so often?

They have 1 of these machines in the HL area of Mandalay Bay, I can confirm you do earn points AND Express comps while playing it. They add up really fast on it too, especially if you have a platinum card. At MGM Mirage properties every 1000 points is redeemable for $10 in machine credits. I played a session of 1/2 LHE on it a few weeks ago, I put a $20 in, ran it up over $300 in about 15 mins and then proceeded to lose it all back in about 30 mins. I ran like God, hitting flops and turns winning a lot of pots and then the machine ran even better. Jamming every pot against me, calling to the river with hands like 22 on boards of A K 10 9 only to bink a 2 on the river to scoop the pot.

Its almost predictable how you're gonna lose, you have AQ, flop comes AQ6, 3 bets go in, turn or river is a 6 and the machine has 64 offsuit or something like that every time.

With that being said, I racked up like 1500 or so points and a few bucks in express comps in that first hour of play. If you think you can run even on the machine or close to it then you will kill them with the earned points (which can be downloaded as free credits), express comps and future mail offers.

The work to make a heads up limit holdem superbot has already been done, that's not up for debate. So I don't know why it would be more likely that the machine is rigged, unless "plays really well and is going to win money" counts as rigged.

Suspect that/or have proof?

kingbbinlv: it's pretty common for mach gambling to put new users on super run and then take back their winnings. new players always remember the time they went on a huge upswing and they keep coming back again and again hoping that it will continue.

I can tell you this much. If you are able to break even at the Aria and your EV is just the card you are going to live like a King. The amount of volume you can put through will put you in an elite status category for a slot player. Suites, gourmet meals, bounce back cash, free slot tournament invites with huge cash prizes. You will be the one Twittering a photo like Chainsaw with $150,000 check like the one he won at Bellagio. Normally playing high return games like 9/6 JOB video poker will get you less than what is given to slot machines players. I don't know what the theoretical hold is for the Heads Up Holdem. If it is higher than JOB that will be to your benefit in the way you are marketed.
The theoretical hold is proprietary information that the manufacturer gives the casino. This doesn't mean the machine is rigged. It is how the machine has fared from play over millions of hands. With perfect play 9/6 JOB is 99.54% but real world hold is higher due the average player making mistakes. The truth actually is very few people can play 99.54% even if they know the strategy. Players make mistakes like throwing away pairs when talking to a cocktail waitress. Not seeing the cards correctly when they are tired. Playing too fast and misholding buttons. The you have the stone idiots playing who go for gutshots, holding kickers, three flushes. The Heads Holdem is even more interesting. What the number of people who can actually beat it. Are there more than 20 players, 50 a 100.

Just an FYI, the machine at Mandalay Bay accrues points like a slot machine and not like a VP machine.

It's a ****ing fruit machine of course it's not beatable

zing! Nice one