$300K Super High Roller Rail Thread - Page 60 - Poker News

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06-06-2016 , 12:12 AM

#1476

angeles

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snoopy5

Board: 6h 8d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.330% 49.79% 00.55% 11829 129.50 { 6c6s }
Hand 1: 49.670% 49.12% 00.55% 11672 129.50 { TcTd, TcTs, TdTs, 8c8h, 8c8s, 8h8s, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah5h, Ac4c, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, Jh9h, Tc8c, Ts8s, 97s }

this includes all A-high flush draws and good two pair, which is optimistic. removing half of the FDs gives dan 41% equity, which still might be wishful.

yeah, hes going to be peeling alot of these draws (rather than shipping) with a very high frequency given the bubble. I think ~40% equity might be generous

Quote

06-06-2016 , 12:23 AM

#1477

Coolstorybro.

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 163

Quote:

Originally Posted by angeles

oop when a board is this dynamic (it will change alot on turns and rivers), it becomes more appealing to pot control even very strong hands on a bubble this large.

Your argument for now allowing other hands to realize equity has merit, but is ignoring obvious icm implications (we aren't assuming he's cbetting with impunity on this type of board, being covered by a very capable opponent on the biggest bubble of his career).

The issue with flatting OOP is what do you do when you're fired into on the Ac turn? Your hand is now even more disguised so I don't see how folding can be an option. Barring some horrible board run out the money always goes in set vs set whether it's on the flop, turn or river and given Kempe is unlikely to 3 barrel bluff (I would imagine) on the bubble, raising is a better option that calling.

I think the biggest bubble of his career comment is speculative when none of us know how much of himself he had in the tournament. Regardless, there's also the factor that some players are there to win, not just to min cash.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 12:36 AM

#1478

angeles

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,937

we call on the ac turn... If you're arguing that we should check raise because it makes the hand easier to play, well that's just a very poor reason to raise.

That being said, if you run the equity distributions the range comparison is closer than I initially thought, and I think that raising w/ 66 is closer than I originally thought as well. If it is a mistake, I don't think it can be a big one.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 01:11 PM

#1479

ESW

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 235

At the microstakes (lol I know), think 3rd in chips should maybe only be shoving into the 2nd in chips with the nuts, or close to it (since busting is so much worse than winning extra chips). Even if stacks were closer together, think this is true - and here they were 2nd and 3rd by a lot.

Think only TT is a call vs a 3rd in stack shove into 2nd ... meaning 66 should be a fold.

But maybe things are different at higher stakes, I wouldn't know

Not sure it makes any sense not to raise bottom set though - that seems fine on 50bbs.

Last edited by ESW; 06-06-2016 at 01:16 PM.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 01:15 PM

#1480

Toringi's

centurion

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 137

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESW

At the microstakes (lol I know), think 3rd in chips should maybe only be shoving into the 2nd in chips with the nuts, or close to it (since busting is so much worse than winning extra chips).

If that's the case, think only TT is a call ... meaning 66 should be a fold?

But maybe things are different at higher stakes, I wouldn't know

Some solid strat.

Spoiler:

Quote

06-06-2016 , 01:17 PM

#1481

ESW

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 235

It's basic ICM.

ICM isn't complete though. Sometimes there'll be spots where it might be optimal to do something else. And maybe doing 'something else' happens more often at higher stakes.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 01:47 PM

#1482

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toringi's

Some solid strat.

Spoiler:

There's no need to be a jerk.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 01:57 PM

#1483

ESW

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 235

Not even sure it was correct of Kempe to shove the 88's. Some of those ICM recommendations can be so tight, it's unreal.

Kempe's flop shoving range might have just been like 7h 9h, possibly TT, if that?

88 like it might have been close.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 02:12 PM

#1484

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,684

Kempe's hand is exactly one pip better than smith's. Smith's range is probably different and there's a different amount in the pot ... But the basic ICM proposition is the same. Kempe stands to lose a lot and gain much less. The only real difference (and it is significant) is that jamming is of much better than calling off, of course, especially if you know your opponent understands ICM.

Quote

06-06-2016 , 02:32 PM

#1485

ESW

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 235

It's maybe much less of an ICM issue to be shoving a bit wide, than to be calling a bit wide, resulting in the all-in turning into a showdown for stacks.

That's a good point Howard.

Calling's the biggie. Tough spot for Dan.

Quote

06-07-2016 , 11:48 AM

#1486

Pipedreamer101

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 348

did anyone take notice that fedor shipped the Aria $50k the very next day for $637,000? can this kid get any better!

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=261880

Quote

06-07-2016 , 01:25 PM

#1487

Coolstorybro.

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 163

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESW

So if Smith has TT he should fold to the flop shove because Kempe's range is 97hh?

Quote

06-07-2016 , 01:45 PM

#1488

ESW

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 235

If Smith had TT, think he would do the same thing he did - put Kempe on a range.

With 66, he must have decided Kempe had a range wider than just TT and 7h 9h, if he made the call.

Can't remember what happened pre-flop, but maybe Kempe was willing to shove 88 because he didn't think Smith would have TT?

Quote

06-08-2016 , 12:36 PM

#1489

IPlayNLHE

adept

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 889

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101

did anyone take notice that fedor shipped the Aria $50k the very next day for $637,000? can this kid get any better!

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=261880

Run any hotter*

Quote

06-08-2016 , 01:54 PM

#1490

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coolstorybro.

So if Smith has TT he should fold to the flop shove because Kempe's range is 97hh?

Twelve combos of 88 and TT beat 66. There are nine legitimate two pair combos, sixteen straight combos, and four heart draw combos that also have a straight draw, right? That's 12 of 42, so 66 has 70 per cent or so of the equity TT has.

Thoughts on my shoving range for kempe? A buddy of mine argues Kempe shoves overpairs here, but I'm skeptical about that.

I think 66 is actually something of a close question, although I know others disagree. But TT beats 66 and 88, both of which are solidly in range.

Quote

06-11-2016 , 09:49 AM

#1491

BlackpoolRock

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 36

Quote:

Originally Posted by IPlayNLHE

Run any hotter*

Going off his twitter he shipped the 25k at Aria for $400k. Lets see if he can win another one tonight.

Quote

06-11-2016 , 02:19 PM

#1492

Pipedreamer101

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 348

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackpoolRock

Going off his twitter he shipped the 25k at Aria for $400k. Lets see if he can win another one tonight.

The kids a freak, if im not mistaken this will mean he's up close to/just over 4M in 2 weeks? Living the freaking dream!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

06-11-2016 , 03:05 PM

#1493

Snoopy5

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 1,153

*3 combos of 88, 3 combos of TT (6 total).

Quote

06-11-2016 , 03:17 PM

#1494

BlackpoolRock

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101

The kids a freak, if im not mistaken this will mean he's up close to/just over 4M in 2 weeks? Living the freaking dream!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

With last nights win i think its more like $4.6milly

Quote

06-11-2016 , 03:33 PM

#1495

DesertCat

I am a Regulator

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 13,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Howard Treesong

So you claim that Kempe's shoving range is so tight that it's correct to fold the 4th nuts to it?

Yet if Kempe knows that only a tiny fraction of Smith's c/r range can profitably call a shove, why is his shoving range so damn tight?

Quote

06-11-2016 , 04:42 PM

#1496

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,938

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackpoolRock

With last nights win i think its more like $4.6milly

Plus change from getting 18th at the 1.5k 6max WSOP event..

Quote

06-11-2016 , 05:38 PM

#1497

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by DesertCat

It's not so much that kempe's range is ubertight, but rather that ICM issues mean that you lose almost three times what you win. Is 66 a 3:1 favorite over kempe's shoving range?

I understand and agree with the leveling-war point you're making. Me, I'd just ask Ted Forrest for advice.

Quote

06-12-2016 , 12:15 AM

#1498

Societal Jester

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,397

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101

The kids a freak, if im not mistaken this will mean he's up close to/just over 4M in 2 weeks? Living the freaking dream!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

according to his twitter he chopped the SHR with Kempe, so that was 4.25 right there, plus another milly from two results at Aria. Definitely over 5M