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The Supreme Court discussion thread The Supreme Court discussion thread

05-04-2022 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
I am really curious if anyone disagrees that the Dem's see this as a valuable political football for the midterms, in a cycle it looked like they would get slaughtered and as such they do not want to take any steps to deal with it prior?

There are several paths the Dem's could take to impact this ruling if, indeed, they are against it.

Biden could speak very publicly about an 'obvious need for SC reform' and that he will be moving to do so. Such threats to the SC have been part of getting the SC in the past to change very partisan views and by more reasonable.

Biden could reach across the aisle to 2 or more Republicans to create a carve out exception to the filibuster for this issue only, so the gov't could pass Federal Abortion rights. It seems to me Murkowski and Collins would be on board, and perhaps a few others to offset the risk of Manchin and Sinema finding an envelope with $5 in it and then voting against.

Instead of seeing these tough postures, the very first thing Biden does is say 'we will not be looking to do those things' signalling the SC and GOP that no tough actions are coming NOW, so they can stay the course with consideration for comprise.

Is that accidental? Was it accidental when Biden told the donors 'don't worry, you will not see any real change' when it came to implementation of his agenda and it getting skewered from within?

I think there has to be a real naivety, to see time and again Biden and the Dem's just take a position from the start that they will not use the tools they have to get their agenda done, unless you believe that agenda was never really meant to get done and was just a political football ala Charlie Brown and Lucy.



I think if you gave Biden and the Dem's a switch today and all they had to do was throw the switch and Abortion rights would be protected they absolutely would rationalize some reason not to do it. SOmething like 'it is not democratic'. And as such the Dems will play another very dangerous game when they do not need to simply to try and win votes and with society paying the cost if they lose.

Anyone disagree? If so why?

I just do not seeing the Dems at the national level benefitting from this. If anything if Abortion has over 60% nation wide than all these GOP governors should easily be voted out next election for putting the policy in place

Everyone keeps on counting on a few GOP senators and that doesn't seem to work
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05-04-2022 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
Wow is she dumb.

Without completely knowing the protocols of the court, I can't imagine the liberal judge or staff would be leaking a first draft opinion by the majority. First, as I remember, the drafts don't get circulated among all the justices but only those justices voting with the majority (unless they are trying to sway votes). Given how inflammatory ailto's language seems, I would expect some of the majority to want softer language, especially because they are outright rejecting precedent and his reasoning seems very weak. Second, assuming there has been negotiations on the language and reasoning, what is the point of leaking the February draft and not a current version draft.

Where I see value to the leak is keeping the majority members in line. If one of the majority judges changes their mind on overturning Roe, this leak denies them any cover. Ailto's draft is right out of the minds of the conservative anti-abortion think tanks, probably just copied from the amicus briefs.

Of course, I predicted upthread that the court would not overturn RvW, just move up viability or the point of state interest, so wdik.
Seems like you agree with me and grizy that the leak likely was from the right wing unless it was inadvertent.

Before the argument, I also thought that Roberts would convince one of the conservatives to continue the death-of-a-thousand-cuts dance rather than overrule Roe directly.

Last edited by Rococo; 05-04-2022 at 01:12 PM.
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05-04-2022 , 01:20 PM
But what if the 1973 arguments are demonstrably flawed? (Not the same thing as saying the result is bad.) Didn't RBG think that? And the emphasis people are now putting on stare decisis tells me that it isn't just her among pro choicers, who worry about that.
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05-04-2022 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Seems like you agree with me and grizy that the leak likely was from the right wing unless it was inadvertent.

Before the argument, I also thought that Roberts would convince one of the conservatives to continue the death-of-a-thousand-cuts dance rather than overrule Roe directly.
Should at least be part of the pie. Though it is fun seeing the conservatives try to walk the line between respect our govt institutions/traditions and our govt is evil
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05-04-2022 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
But what if the 1973 arguments are demonstrably flawed? (Not the same thing as saying the result is bad.) Didn't RBG think that? And the emphasis people are now putting on stare decisis tells me that it isn't just her among pro choicers, who worry about that.
No one thinks that Roe was a masterwork of legal analysis.
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05-04-2022 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Among the somewhat nasty ulterior motives people are speculating about for the leaker, I don't see the simple one that he or she sees flaws in the arguments and hopes that they can be pointed out by people smart and influential enough that a justice will be swayed before the final decision is given. Guess that's asking too much.
No one is discussing this as a motivation because the chances the opinion was leaked for this reason are vanishingly close to zero.
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05-04-2022 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
The history of the court is littered with justices who disappointed the appointing party. I feel comfortable in saying that almost no justices gaf about pleasing the appointing party after they are sworn in. That's the inevitable (and theoretically desirable) consequence of lifetime appointments.

That's why the new goal is to appoint justices who are arch conservatives in their hearts, both politically and judicially. Never again will you see a Republican administration guess at a nominee's conservative bona fides like H.W. did with David Souter. When Republicans control the WH and the Senate, you are guaranteed to see nominees like Neil Gorsuch and Barrett.
Oh, I agree with your general sentiment.

But I also really believe that certain justices were tasked with making this ruling and I don't know why they'd bite the hand that fed them.

Conservatives are proud of their herd mentality. And isn't Barrett a religious fanatic to boot ? Kavanaugh strikes me as a garden variety fake Christian but I'm sure he owes people favors and doesn't want to feel uncomfortable at the bar enjoying his beer.
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05-04-2022 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO2.0
Could have saved yourself the time just by looking at the pseudonym of choice.

I really can’t imagine a clerk or a judge doing it. As you said, it’s like 95 percent chance to be career suicide for people who really really care about their career.

My moneys on random employee who got a copy somehow and doesn’t even have a definite reason for doing it.
That's her given name.

Her father is a physicist so he's obviously stupid too.

To be fair she has more confidence in the integrity of the court than I do.
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05-04-2022 , 02:41 PM
Lagtight I always find this scene fascinating ….



So u all agree with this right ?
No mistake huh ….
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05-04-2022 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
Oh, I agree with your general sentiment.

But I also really believe that certain justices were tasked with making this ruling and I don't know why they'd bite the hand that fed them.

Conservatives are proud of their herd mentality. And isn't Barrett a religious fanatic to boot ? Kavanaugh strikes me as a garden variety fake Christian but I'm sure he owes people favors and doesn't want to feel uncomfortable at the bar enjoying his beer.
ACB has been widely reported to be part of a church or church group that is more like cultist church group then a centrist one. Extreme behaviours like 'speaking in tongues' widely reported.

Like you I suspect Kavanaugh is more the typical centrist church goer, who feels he should go for his kids and to be seen but really does not take much away from it.

So while I think ACB could never support a 'Law of Man' that contrived a 'Law of God' or her perception of one, I think for Kavanaugh, he is just revelling in the revenge he threatened upon his confirmation.

I think it was the first time ever that a confirmed judge threatened consequences to others as a result of his confirmation and I think Kavanaugh is happy to dispense them.
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05-04-2022 , 02:59 PM
I think the supreme.courts needs to be restructured... And I thought this when it was majority liberal

You can have judges serving who were appointed by George Bush Sr or early in Clinton's terms
That seems absurd. I think the judge's should be above the political fray but I do think they should be representative of the American people.
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05-04-2022 , 03:05 PM
Was going to say "ACB" is an out-of-touch nut. To think she was appointed by a philandering, misogynist president is priceless

Kavanagh is a liar and reminds me of the weenie Ted Cruz... But I did support him in not having to explain non-criminal behaviour as a minor

Thomas is completely out-of-touch...can't believe I supported him way back... In hindsight, it seems like Anita Hill told the truth. Maybe I'm mistaken though..
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05-04-2022 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
Is is wrong that makes her even more attractive to me ?
No, it is not.
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05-04-2022 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Among the somewhat nasty ulterior motives people are speculating about for the leaker, I don't see the simple one that he or she sees flaws in the arguments and hopes that they can be pointed out by people smart and influential enough that a justice will be swayed before the final decision is given. Guess that's asking too much.
Isn't that just inferred by most as one of the prime motivations?

The most obvious reason is to generate vehement opposition. I don't think this will work...
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05-04-2022 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee

I think it was the first time ever that a confirmed judge threatened consequences to others as a result of his confirmation and I think Kavanaugh is happy to dispense them.
What are referencing? Not a pointed question. More something I'm not aware of

I thought only DJT is insane enough to actually do this
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05-04-2022 , 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
I think the supreme.courts needs to be restructured... And I thought this when it was majority liberal

You can have judges serving who were appointed by George Bush Sr or early in Clinton's terms
That seems absurd. I think the judge's should be above the political fray but I do think they should be representative of the American people.
I think it is the selection process for judges that is broken.

Once upon a time both parties were afraid to go full partisan and agenda out of respect that they did not want the other side to do so as well.

That lead to mostly reasonable judge choice even if they had leanings. It was still much harder to predict how they would vote and you would see judges of one partisan leaning voting 'across the aisle', and that is the way it should work.

that is broken now with the only consideration being to get the most predictable ideologue one can on the GOP side.

They make sure any judge that comes up through the circuit and to the higher courts has a steadfast and undenyable ideology that defines them and they weed out or make sure judges that do not fit that, cannot pass. So the judges who understand how to play politics well and say all the right things despite their dogma defining who they are, are the only ones getting to the upper ranks in the GOP circles today.

That is why Trump said almost in an awkward fashion that if he got his SC thru RvW would fall as he was assured the 'fix was in' already. Meaning the judges that would be presented to him to choose from were all pre vetted for that purpose'.
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05-04-2022 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
Not sure it's a great idea for someone to tweet this kind of speculation when there are so many whack jobs out there looking to find a bad guy in this.
Just had a massive argument with a good friend over this...seems like a terrible idea.. What harm is there in simply waiting?

Is there actually thought that this was leaked by one of the hard-core republicans? False flag?..I told someone thought this myself, but that was "pure tongue and cheek"
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05-04-2022 , 03:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
I think it is the selection process for judges that is broken.

Once upon a time both parties were afraid to go full partisan and agenda out of respect that they did not want the other side to do so as well.

That lead to mostly reasonable judge choice even if they had leanings. It was still much harder to predict how they would vote and you would see judges of one partisan leaning voting 'across the aisle', and that is the way it should work.

that is broken now with the only consideration being to get the most predictable ideologue one can on the GOP side.

They make sure any judge that comes up through the circuit and to the higher courts has a steadfast and undenyable ideology that defines them and they weed out or make sure judges that do not fit that, cannot pass. So the judges who understand how to play politics well and say all the right things despite their dogma defining who they are, are the only ones getting to the upper ranks in the GOP circles today.

That is why Trump said almost in an awkward fashion that if he got his SC thru RvW would fall as he was assured the 'fix was in' already. Meaning the judges that would be presented to him to choose from were all pre vetted for that purpose'.
Trump though also said the new justices would be personally loyal to him.. Obv. Hasn't happened..and Trump is not a "Roe vs Wade"guy but I wonder if he'll take credit
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05-04-2022 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
No one is discussing this as a motivation because the chances the opinion was leaked for this reason are vanishingly close to zero.
I know that. When I said "asking too much" I meant of the leaker.
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05-04-2022 , 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
I just do not seeing the Dems at the national level benefitting from this. If anything if Abortion has over 60% nation wide than all these GOP governors should easily be voted out next election for putting the policy in place

Everyone keeps on counting on a few GOP senators and that doesn't seem to work
I'm grunching here

Alot of R states are not remotely representative of national landscape.. And abortion is just one of many issues

Pretty sure this will help democrats in mid-terms and 2024.. R's lucky they appointed ACB on more than criteria.. 5 men overturning Roe v Wade would have been terrible optics. Lack of respect for women... But I don't think Roberts would/will do it
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05-04-2022 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
I think it is the selection process for judges that is broken.

Once upon a time both parties were afraid to go full partisan and agenda out of respect that they did not want the other side to do so as well.

That lead to mostly reasonable judge choice even if they had leanings. It was still much harder to predict how they would vote and you would see judges of one partisan leaning voting 'across the aisle', and that is the way it should work.

that is broken now with the only consideration being to get the most predictable ideologue one can on the GOP side.

They make sure any judge that comes up through the circuit and to the higher courts has a steadfast and undenyable ideology that defines them and they weed out or make sure judges that do not fit that, cannot pass. So the judges who understand how to play politics well and say all the right things despite their dogma defining who they are, are the only ones getting to the upper ranks in the GOP circles today.

That is why Trump said almost in an awkward fashion that if he got his SC thru RvW would fall as he was assured the 'fix was in' already. Meaning the judges that would be presented to him to choose from were all pre vetted for that purpose'.
Agree completely. I've always thought this system is pretty ****ed up, and it only gets worse every year. Neither party is blameless, but the GOP definitely seems far worse.

And the problem extends far beyond this IMO. The idea that county clerks, sheriffs, DAs, judges, are all basically political positions is just a recipe for disaster IMO. Hell, there even used to be elected dogcatchers! (And there still is one in Vermont.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
Not sure it's a great idea for someone to tweet this kind of speculation when there are so many whack jobs out there looking to find a bad guy in this.
Just had a massive argument with a good friend over this...seems like a terrible idea.. What harm is there in simply waiting?
This. Nothing good will come from Twitter "sleuths" trying to investigate this publicly.
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05-04-2022 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Based on this video, Krystal Ball seems like an idiot.
didnt some right wingers try to defame her by releasing pics of her from her college days that were kinda risque?
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05-04-2022 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
Trump though also said the new justices would be personally loyal to him.. Obv. Hasn't happened..and Trump is not a "Roe vs Wade"guy but I wonder if he'll take credit
Trump always hopes for or surmises that everyone he appoints will have personal loyalty to him and it does not always work out.

I think that is very different than that laughing comment I recall him making (I'll try and find it later) where he said something like 'if I get my picks through, RvW will be over or done or gone' or some such. He was speaking to a certain foreknowledge it seemed like he was told the fix was in on any of the candidates he was given to choose from.
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05-04-2022 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
What are referencing? Not a pointed question. More something I'm not aware of

I thought only DJT is insane enough to actually do this
Kavanaugh went in to a rage fuel diatribe about his confirmation hearings being revenge from the Clintons amongst other considerations and blamed Democrat politics and said there would be long term 'consequences' for what was done in his hearings. The best reading you could have, as I have seen some say is he only meant 'consequences' for him and his family but it also could be seen as an allusion to him having power now and getting his pay back later.


The whole thing was quite absurd and I have no tears for Kavanaugh. He was widely reported as the Andrew Weissmann of the Starr investigation into Bill Clinton and WhiteWater with reports that it was Kavanaugh who, out of frustration that after 4 years they had nothing on Clinton re White Water he suggested they change gears and go after Bill Clinton on any of his numerous report affairs? Why? Because everyone will lie about affairs if they think they can get away with them as that is part of the cheating, and thus it could make for a real 'perjury trap' if they could prove the affair happened.


That is why Trump later complained about 'Perjury Traps' with regards to Mueller but Trump was acting like any question you asked that you lied about was just a 'perjury trap'. It is not a Perjury Trap if someone asks you did you steal that, you say no, and it turns out you did. That is just perjury.

It is a perjury trap to ask you about something non related and unimportant believing you will lie so they then will have something else to prosecute you for.

So even if Kavanaugh was right and this was Clinton revenge (I doubt it) , I would say 'so what, you deserve it'
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05-04-2022 , 05:01 PM
this is like a Law and Order legal stretch, but any chance that they can charge Kavanagh with perjury over senate hearings?

the nutcase ACB was much smoother at hearing.. but 1) she's woman so gets easier ride, 2) she doesn't have the perpetually aggrieved personality like Kavanagh (many other people are like this, including me some would say), 3) not accused of jumping on a girl at a house party in the 1970s, 4) MUCH smoother answers to their Q's. but not sure K could have done the same.

ACB reminded me of certain Wall Street executives testifying to congress.............. very hard to pin down on stuff. sort of put the onus on the person to awkwardly clarify/define and by that time the moment is lost.. and the Wall Street executives get very non-committal like you have defined "dishonesty" properly or fully. they question the questioner. ACB not as much but still reminds me of it.
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