but...but... uke says this is not how it is supposed to work.
If you can block Cdn pipelines and force up the price demand will drop and major producers will stop producing.
Oh wait, and then reality and not fiction kicks in...
Quote:
$110 Oil Prompts Private Shale Firms To Open The Taps
When rebounding oil demand began pushing benchmarks higher last year, forecasters and traders alike watched the U.S. shale patch with bated breath to see when drillers would start drilling again. Most didn't. The ones that did were the smaller, privately held players.
Public shale companies suffered a serious blow from the pandemic when growing shareholder disgruntlement combined with the unprecedented destruction of demand for oil to pressure them into a rearrangement of priorities, to which these companies appear to have stuck despite the price rise.
...
So, public shale drillers are still exercising restraint, largely because of investor considerations. After years of burning cash and issuing new stock to make ends meet, the industry is acutely aware that shareholders have run out of patience.
The oil price rally served an important purpose, then, in giving shale companies the means to start returning cash to their owners after the chaos of 2020. It also served an important purpose in boosting trust in the industry and its ability to deliver returns. It is, however, a precarious balance that may not survive over the long term.
...
Rystad Energy this week forecast that the latest price surge could see an additional 300,000 bpd boost to already rising U.S. shale production, Reuters reported. This, the Norwegian energy consultancy said, could bring the total production increase in the U.S. shale patch to 1.2 and 1.3 million bpd.
...
So how is it that uke has everything backwards in his 'basic error'?
How is it that he does not understand the way to keep more of this shale and Russian oil from coming to market is to increase the supply of Cdn oil while at the same time making it as clean as possible?
Does uke's strategy of 'deny the Cdn pipelines to drive the price up, so that demand will fall' work in reality? or is Demand not being driven by supply, in any meaningful way that the CDN supply can impact? Is demand coming from Consumer demand for energy where not enough comes from other sources???
Because if the latter and you slow CDN O&G to market all you are doing is denying CDN's the profits to further diversify their market from energy while ensuring we pollute more while enriching Russia and giving big Shale Interests the type of profits they need to ensure they can drill even as prices lower.
Seems like a lose, lose for Canada but also a lose, lose for the environmentalist. But somehow they stick to this road regardless. Why?