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Originally Posted by anatta
Looking like a rout. Right now, people think trump is doing ok on CV. Once the bodies start piling up, the market hits 15000, unemployment hits 20...well Trump will be run out of town on a rail.
I could see bodies piling up. I think the stock market will retest the lows, which on the Dow is like 18,000. Could it break through that and go to 15,000? Absolutely. Unemployment will be high but will it be 20%? Seems like a stretch. Still, none of us can predict the future in regards to what is in store for the country over the next 8 months. I do agree if all that happens then Joe Biden is the next President of the United States.
The reason I don't think unemployment will reach 20% there is because we just passed a massive $2.2 trillion "stimulus" bill which is largely aimed at keeping people employed. This bill will likely have long term consequences that are very negative for the country but in the short term this bill boosts the economy, lifts the stock market, and lowers unemployment. These things are all great for Trump's re-election.
That's not even mentioning that the masses are being bought off with "stimulus" checks. When someone gives you money it's kind of hard to be outraged at him, and I use the word "him" because Donald Trump will take full credit for this bill. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about that and Joe Biden can't take any credit for it whatsoever (other candidates could have).
Furthermore, this may not even be the last "stimulus" bill. If the Democrats were smart it would be but what's to say there won't be another bill in a couple months ? Multiple bills have pretty much been the plan the whole time...and tbh, when it comes to certain industries, Democrats will have no choice but to pass "stimulus."
Also, the Federal Reserve is doing all that it can to pump up the stock market. I think this economy is screwed, but that doesn't mean in October/November things won't look positive. At that time the stock market could be back up and unemployment could look relatively ok. That's not to say it won't all go to hell in Dec/Jan/Feb but that's not Trump's concern. Trump's only concern right now is to get things looking good for the election, and the Democrats seem more than willing to oblige him with that.
As for the polls, you really shouldn't take them seriously unless you just want to feel good.