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10-01-2024 , 09:38 AM

#35051

rafiki

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Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

And yet you still deny it’s an apartheid state.

You are well aware of all the rights, privileges, duties, and opportunities that millions of Arabs who live in Israel have (work, school, vote, army, etc). You know that when you stack them beside South Africa, it's not even in the same realm. AKA not apartheid.

If you mean GAZA, Gaza is not Israel. Hopefully when peace arrives, Gaza will become what it could have always been without Hamas.

Last edited by rafiki; 10-01-2024 at 09:45 AM.

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10-01-2024 , 09:44 AM

#35052

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Quote:

�� A senior official in the White House tells me: The US has intelligence that Iran intends to launch a missile attack against Israel in the immediate time frame

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10-01-2024 , 09:46 AM

#35053

rafiki

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Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,998

Tough spot for Iran. Israel would love to go get those nuclear installations.

This is a big moment for Iran. Big decision.

Quote

10-01-2024 , 09:49 AM

#35054

Trolly McTrollson

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 38,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

You know that when you stack them beside South Africa, it's not even in the same realm. AKA not apartheid.

The main difference is that the South African government didn't bomb Bantustan into rubble.

Quote

10-01-2024 , 09:50 AM

#35055

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Hezbollah is one of Iran's main deterrents against Israel, losing it will result in Iran considering going nuclear which in turn enecourages Israel to strike which will be even more likely due to the lack of Hezbollah. It's not a good situation, part of the reason Israel shouldn't be invading imo.

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10-01-2024 , 10:03 AM

#35056

Dunyain

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2023 Posts: 4,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

You are kind of leaving out the part where Hezbollah/IRI have been attacking Israel for 11 months straight. The threat of Hezbollah attacking was the deterrent. Once they decided on protracted offensive violence, then it no longer is a deterrent, but an active belligerent threat that must be eliminated.

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10-01-2024 , 10:07 AM

#35057

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

No. It remains a deterrent, it's not one or the other.

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10-01-2024 , 10:14 AM

#35058

Dunyain

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2023 Posts: 4,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

This is a pretty self-defeating line of thought. Compared to developing nations which are in a similar situation Palestine has high literacy rates. World Bank puts their literacy rate at 97%: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...S?locations=PS

They value higher education, and a major factor for not receiving higher education is the lack of access being imposed upon Palestine. Using a lack of education imposed on Palestine as a justification for imposing further restrictions preventing higher education is clearly circular reasoning.

With Islamist groups in charge, or even if not technically in charge having veto power to derail any movements towards peace and reconciliaiton, I think the internal political problems are a much bigger impediment than the external ones.

Also, being highly literate only gets you so far (and is probably a net negative) when your education system is focused around propaganda encouraging generally antisocial behavior, antisemitism and violence. Imagine a Grade 1-12 school system where people like Deuces McKracken are running the show, encouraging zero sum, violent nihilism . A very hopeless situation.

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10-01-2024 , 10:33 AM

#35059

rafiki

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Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

I've not heard one good Israeli geopolitical analyst come at it this way. Curious if that's your take or you heard it somewhere? If so maybe link me to a podcast? Appreciate that.

The sense (as I'm hearing it) is that without the ring if fire (which is falling to pieces before our eyes), Iran basically has nothing. Countries begin to flip to moderate, one by one as Iran's influence vanishes. Then comes a concentrated effort to overthrow Iran's horrible regime, from the inside (by their oppressed people). And a very united Muslim world eager to see it happen. We all would, I hope.

The world as we know it, changes forever with this sequence.

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10-01-2024 , 10:36 AM

#35060

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Whether Iran could avoid Iraqs fate over WMDs is dubious. Even assuming they were somehow genuinely not goign for nukes.

USA is fully embroiled. Unless thare's some major polical upheaval, iran has been on the agenda since the beginning.

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10-01-2024 , 10:39 AM

#35061

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

I don't have a podcast saying that. I agree with your take for the good scenario, but Iran isn't going to just accept that fate. Going nuclear has been on the table for a long time.

Quote

10-01-2024 , 10:40 AM

#35062

mongidig

temp-banned

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 7,416

This is a great opportunity for Israel to take out the Iranian Nuclear facilities as well as decapitating the regime. Certainly we can all agree that this would be a good thing.

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10-01-2024 , 10:43 AM

#35063

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,685

I agree that's at the front of their minds. But to replace with what? And how many lives get destroyed.

That's assuming it goes well.

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10-01-2024 , 10:45 AM

#35064

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Could you share one of the podcasts with me? Sounds incredibly optimistic but I'd like to hear it.

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10-01-2024 , 10:48 AM

#35065

Victor

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Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 76,522

the consent. it gets manufactured.

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10-01-2024 , 10:53 AM

#35066

mongidig

temp-banned

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 7,416

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deuces McKracken

Israelis claim thousands of years ago people they, by now, have scant genetic relationship to, used to live somewhere and, hence, they have the right to take it over now.

So do we just apply this logic globally? Maybe the Europeans who claim Israel as theirs did have ancestors there thousands of years ago. Maybe they didn't. Some say they actually came from some other place. We can't ever know for sure. But we're sure pretty sure about the out-of-Africa hypothesis. So can anyone just go to Africa, plant themselves in someone's house and declare that house as their own? Will the U.S. government back up that claim?

If I had a home in Africa I'd be a little nervous as everyone can claim to have ancestral footprints into my house. Plus my community can suffer genocide and the perpetrator can go the U.N. and receive a warm welcome even after an international court has indicted them.

Can we use 23andME to find out where our genes were and then just go there are displace the residents? I don't see what is so special about the Israelis. Why do only they get to do this?

It's just the way the world has always operated. Nations get conquered. Israel has been destroyed many times throughout history. Now it's their time to be the conqueror. It's survival of the fittest. They tried to play nice at one time but couldn't find a willing partner.

Would the "Palestinians" have the right to plant themselves in someone's home and declare it as their own? This is what they would like do right? They would like to go back to their pre Nakba homes.

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10-01-2024 , 11:00 AM

#35067

mongidig

temp-banned

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 7,416

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

I agree that's at the front of their minds. But to replace with what? And how many lives get destroyed.

That's assuming it goes well.

I'm not talking an Iraq style invasion. Step one would be to hit the nuclear sites. Step two decapitate the regime. Step three replace the regime. This is an actual spot where Israel and the US would be seen as liberators. There are tons of anti regime groups outside of Iran ready to step in. The only lives destroyed would be the bad guy's.

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10-01-2024 , 11:05 AM

#35068

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,685

I think step 1 will happen to some extent. Step 2 might as well.

The rest sounds staggeringly hopeful to put it mildly.

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10-01-2024 , 11:07 AM

#35069

Victor

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Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 76,522

Quote:

Originally Posted by mongidig

convenient

Quote

10-01-2024 , 11:10 AM

#35070

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

I'm not even sure how much Iran's nuclear program can be set back at this stage.

Quote

10-01-2024 , 11:11 AM

#35071

jalfrezi

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,903

Quote:

Originally Posted by mongidig

Step four decapitate the Israeli regime and drag the head screaming to The Hague as a high profile deterrent to future attempts to genocide people.

The only people killed in Gaza so far have been bad guys, right?

Quote

10-01-2024 , 11:14 AM

#35072

Bill Haywood

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 5,518

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

You know perfectly well he was talking about the West Bank, which you somehow neglected to mention.

Quote

10-01-2024 , 11:17 AM

#35073

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Quote:

A western source with no details: Iran is expected to attack Israel with fast missiles and not with UAVs or cruise missiles that allow for a long preparation time for defense and interception

Quote

10-01-2024 , 11:19 AM

#35074

Victor

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 76,522

USA always knows what Iran is going to do but never knows what Israel is going to do. weird.

Quote

10-01-2024 , 11:39 AM

#35075

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

I'm not even sure how much Iran's nuclear program can be set back at this stage.

It's all so much harder an driskier than the gung ho seem to think.A full scale war must be a contender but it doesn't obviously make anything safer. It may just become a reality like it has with with N Korea. All the threats and anguish don't trump reality.

Iran could already use a dirty bomb. If they thought mongidig's plan was happening then they might do it. Maybe it can be blcoked but I'm not sure shooting down a dirty bomb is the greatest thign to rely on.

Last edited by chezlaw; 10-01-2024 at 11:47 AM.

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